Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 3Q23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> reported revenue and operating profit of KRW672B (+4% YoY) and KRW268B (+25% YoY), respectively, driven by broad-based growth across biosimilar portfolio and CMO revenue.</li>
<li>Operating profit margin is approaching 40% level, highest level in last two years, driven primarily by sales growth around high margin products. Net profit jumped 33% YoY to KRW221B.</li>
<li>In Oct’23, Celltrion received FDA approval for Zympentra, which is Celltrion's first product approved as a new drug in the U.S., and is expected to receive patent protection until 2040.</li>
</ul>


In 3Q23, Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) reported revenue and operating profit of KRW672B (+4% YoY) and KRW268B (+25% YoY), respectively, driven by broad-based growth across biosimilar portfolio and CMO revenue.
Operating profit margin is approaching 40% level, highest level in last two years, driven primarily by sales growth around high margin products. Net profit jumped 33% YoY to KRW221B.
In Oct’23, Celltrion received FDA approval for Zympentra, which is Celltrion's first product approved as a new drug in the U.S., and is expected to receive patent protection until 2040.


Celltrion (068270 KS): Record High Revenue and Operating Profit in 3Q23 Solidify Merger Stance

<ul>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc-38a560c3-749f-4bd5-8671-c0df9cb659d7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26893:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion (068270 KP)</a> approaches merger clarity, focus will shift to its base business, which remains solid. In Q2 2023, biosimilar, the flagship business, reported a 10% YoY growth.</li>
<li>Operating profit margin expanded 440bps YoY to 34.9%. Margins are expected to improve further through increasing contribution from high-margin products such as Yuflyma (Humira biosimilar) and Remsima SC.</li>
<li>Celltrion expects to receive approval for Remsima SC in the U.S. by end of October, which should act as a major catalyst. By 2030, merged entity targets revenue of KRW12T.</li>
</ul>


As Celltrion (068270 KP) approaches merger clarity, focus will shift to its base business, which remains solid. In Q2 2023, biosimilar, the flagship business, reported a 10% YoY growth.
Operating profit margin expanded 440bps YoY to 34.9%. Margins are expected to improve further through increasing contribution from high-margin products such as Yuflyma (Humira biosimilar) and Remsima SC.
Celltrion expects to receive approval for Remsima SC in the U.S. by end of October, which should act as a major catalyst. By 2030, merged entity targets revenue of KRW12T.


Celltrion (068270 KP): Improving Base Business Is Being Overlooked by Mr. Market Amid Merger Noises

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in Korea in October and November 2023.</li>
<li>We provide a list of 24 stocks in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in October and November 2023.</li>
<li>The top five market cap stocks that have announced share repurchases include Celltrion Inc, Celltrion Healthcare, Shinhan Financial, Amore Pacific Corp, and Mirae Asset Securities. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in Korea in October and November 2023.
We provide a list of 24 stocks in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in October and November 2023.
The top five market cap stocks that have announced share repurchases include Celltrion Inc, Celltrion Healthcare, Shinhan Financial, Amore Pacific Corp, and Mirae Asset Securities. 


Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: October & November 2023

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The appraisal right prices of Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) is 150,813 won (2.2% higher than current price) and Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) is 67,251 won (1.9% higher than current price).</li>
<li>Celltrion Inc has mentioned that the merger could be cancelled if the total amount of appraisal share purchase amount exceeds 1 trillion won. </li>
<li>Although some investors are likely to exercise their appraisal rights in this merger, we would attach a higher probability of this merger getting completed (80-90%+). </li>
</ul>


The appraisal right prices of Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) is 150,813 won (2.2% higher than current price) and Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) is 67,251 won (1.9% higher than current price).
Celltrion Inc has mentioned that the merger could be cancelled if the total amount of appraisal share purchase amount exceeds 1 trillion won. 
Although some investors are likely to exercise their appraisal rights in this merger, we would attach a higher probability of this merger getting completed (80-90%+). 


Progress of Merger Between Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Healthcare & Appraisal Rights Issue

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The Appraisal rights exercise period ends on 13 November. If the NPS and other large shareholders exercise their rights in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>, the merger could be in trouble.</li>
<li>Both stocks are trading close to their exercise price and could be supported due to the companies buying back their shares.</li>
<li>There will be passive flows from local and global trackers and there does not appear to be pre-positioning. That is likely due to the risk of potential merger cancellation.</li>
</ul>


The Appraisal rights exercise period ends on 13 November. If the NPS and other large shareholders exercise their rights in Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), the merger could be in trouble.
Both stocks are trading close to their exercise price and could be supported due to the companies buying back their shares.
There will be passive flows from local and global trackers and there does not appear to be pre-positioning. That is likely due to the risk of potential merger cancellation.


Celltrion Merger: Appraisal Rights & Passive Flows

South Korea

Celltrion, Inc. produces and sells biosimilar products, as well as consignment processing services for other businesses.

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Celltrion (068270 KP)

Celltrion (068270 KS): Record High Revenue and Operating Profit in 3Q23 Solidify Merger Stance

Celltrion Board approved the merger with Celltrion Healthcare. The scheduled date of listing of the new shares is January 12. The merged entity...

Tina Banerjee