Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> achieved 31% YoY revenue growth to KRW882B in 3Q24, driven by the rapid growth of new products such as Remsima SC, Yuflyma, and Vegzelma.</li>
<li>The company is maintaining 2024 sales guidance of KRW3.5T (up 60% YoY), which indicates sequentially improved quarterly sales in 4Q24. Margin improvement is expected to continue.</li>
<li>In August, Celltrion received EU approval for Steqeyma, biosimilar for autoimmune disease treatment Stelara. Celltrion aims to commercialize 22 biosimilars by 2030, thereby targeting a pipeline market size of $182B.</li>
</ul>



Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) achieved 31% YoY revenue growth to KRW882B in 3Q24, driven by the rapid growth of new products such as Remsima SC, Yuflyma, and Vegzelma.
The company is maintaining 2024 sales guidance of KRW3.5T (up 60% YoY), which indicates sequentially improved quarterly sales in 4Q24. Margin improvement is expected to continue.
In August, Celltrion received EU approval for Steqeyma, biosimilar for autoimmune disease treatment Stelara. Celltrion aims to commercialize 22 biosimilars by 2030, thereby targeting a pipeline market size of $182B.


Celltrion Inc (068270 KS): Record High Sales in 3Q; Pipeline Progress Entails Long-Term Growth

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.</li>
<li>A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.</li>
<li>Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.</li>
</ul>


Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.
A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.
Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> index constituents in May 2021.</li>
<li>News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.</li>
<li>There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.</li>
</ul>


Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Nov 28th. The aggregated holding was USD803.0bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD5,160mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SAMSUNG BIOLOGICS, Samsung Electronics, NAVER, HD HYUNDAI HEAVY INDUSTRIES, KEPCO.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Nov 28th. The aggregated holding was USD803.0bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD5,160mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SAMSUNG BIOLOGICS, Samsung Electronics, NAVER, HD HYUNDAI HEAVY INDUSTRIES, KEPCO.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 28th): SAMSUNG BIOLOGICS, Samsung Electronics, NAVER

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Sichuan Kelun-Biotech announces Phase 3 trial success for ADC-Keytruda combination therapy in first-line lung cancer. ImmuneOnco received Phase 3 trial approval for IMM0306 lenalidomide combination for follicular lymphoma in China.</li>
<li>Otsuka received FDA accelerated approval of Voyxact for immunoglobulin A nephropathy. Eisai has completed FDA submission of Leqembi Iqlik subcutaneous autoinjector as a weekly starting dose for early Alzheimer’s disease.</li>
<li>Alteogen secures $15M milestone payment from Merck as Keytruda subcutaneous formulation gets EU approval. SK Biopharmaceuticals in-licenses second radiopharmaceutical candidate, which has potential to target clear cell renal cell carcinoma.  </li>
</ul>


Sichuan Kelun-Biotech announces Phase 3 trial success for ADC-Keytruda combination therapy in first-line lung cancer. ImmuneOnco received Phase 3 trial approval for IMM0306 lenalidomide combination for follicular lymphoma in China.
Otsuka received FDA accelerated approval of Voyxact for immunoglobulin A nephropathy. Eisai has completed FDA submission of Leqembi Iqlik subcutaneous autoinjector as a weekly starting dose for early Alzheimer’s disease.
Alteogen secures $15M milestone payment from Merck as Keytruda subcutaneous formulation gets EU approval. SK Biopharmaceuticals in-licenses second radiopharmaceutical candidate, which has potential to target clear cell renal cell carcinoma.  


APAC Healthcare Weekly (November 30) – Kelun Bio, ImmuneOnco, Otsuka, Eisai, Alteogen, SK Biopharma

South Korea

Celltrion Inc. produces and sells biosimilar products and also provides consignm ent processing service for other companies.  The Company's main product is Abata cept which is for arthritis treatment

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Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)