Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mount Milligan to 2045, and Öksüt to fund Goldfield, Kemess, and Thompson Creek internally, with $451m cash, zero debt, and $1bn liquidity.</li>
<li>Q2 2026 lifted gold guidance to 260 to 290koz; Türkiye halves Öksüt's tax rate from 2027, and $200m of buybacks have been authorized.</li>
<li>At 0.53x P/NAV versus peers at 0.7x, FY26E EV/EBITDA of 6.0x, P/B of 1.95x and derived ROCE of 23.5%.</li>
</ul>


Mount Milligan to 2045, and Öksüt to fund Goldfield, Kemess, and Thompson Creek internally, with $451m cash, zero debt, and $1bn liquidity.
Q2 2026 lifted gold guidance to 260 to 290koz; Türkiye halves Öksüt's tax rate from 2027, and $200m of buybacks have been authorized.
At 0.53x P/NAV versus peers at 0.7x, FY26E EV/EBITDA of 6.0x, P/B of 1.95x and derived ROCE of 23.5%.


Centerra Gold Inc. (CG CN): Two Funded Mines Pay for a Four-Project North American Pipeline

OceanaGold Philippines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.</li>
<li>
 Performance:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centerra-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25634:1" rel="noopener">Centerra Gold (CG CN)</a>  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>  (‑6.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25396:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold (K CN)</a> (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).</li>
<li>
Picks: We like <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> for upcoming catalysts, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its yield of 10-12%, and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apex Mining (APX PM)</a> for future growth. </li>
</ul>



Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.

 Performance:Centerra Gold (CG CN)  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while Barrick Mining (B US)  (‑6.2%) and Kinross Gold (K CN) (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).

Picks: We like Barrick Mining (B US) for upcoming catalysts, OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its yield of 10-12%, and Apex Mining (APX PM) for future growth. 


GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF</a> will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.
The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
<li>That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.</li>
<li>The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

Canada

Centerra Gold Inc, acquires, explores, develops, and operates gold properties primarily in Central Asia, the former Soviet Union, and other emerging markets. The Company currently operates the Kumtor mine in the Kyrgyz Republic and the Boroo mine in Mongolia.

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Centerra Gold (CG CN)

Centerra Gold Inc. (CG CN): Two Funded Mines Pay for a Four-Project North American Pipeline

Debt-free mid-tier gold producer on 0.53x P/NAV, funding four North American growth projects from Mount Milligan and Öksüt cash flow, with Thompson...

Sameer Taneja

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

The GDX ETF will change benchmarks at the close on 19 Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8%; round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. Adds...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn

The change in benchmark for GDX should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

The GDX ETF has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index. Estimated turnover...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Centerra Gold Inc. (CG CN): Two Funded Mines Pay for a Four-Project North American Pipeline

Debt-free mid-tier gold producer on 0.53x P/NAV, funding four North American growth projects from Mount Milligan and Öksüt cash flow, with Thompson...

Sameer Taneja

GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

Gold miners trade at 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA at $4,500/oz; YTD laggard Barrick is the cheapest on EV/EBITDA, and Oceanagold Gold offers a 12%...

Sameer Taneja

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

The GDX ETF will change benchmarks at the close on 19 Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8%; round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. Adds...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn

The change in benchmark for GDX should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

The GDX ETF has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index. Estimated turnover...

Brian Freitas