Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Although the SET initially faced pressure from a weakening Hang Seng and Tokyo markets, as well as the XD postings of GULF and INTUCH, the index managed to climb as buying activity surged.</li><li>A total of 392 stocks rose, while only 127 declined. Notably, DELTA halted its downward movement, and sectors such as banking, finance, food, and tourism saw a rebound.</li><li>The index showed signs of recovery within a narrow range, with its price pattern forming a gradual upward slope, suggesting a tendency for further rebound. </li></ul>

Although the SET initially faced pressure from a weakening Hang Seng and Tokyo markets, as well as the XD postings of GULF and INTUCH, the index managed to climb as buying activity surged.A total of 392 stocks rose, while only 127 declined. Notably, DELTA halted its downward movement, and sectors such as banking, finance, food, and tourism saw a rebound.The index showed signs of recovery within a narrow range, with its price pattern forming a gradual upward slope, suggesting a tendency for further rebound. 

<ul><li>Most Asian bourses surged, while the SET saw buying activity flow into banking, commerce, hospital, and tourism stocks.</li><li>In addition, AOT managed to rise, which helped the index close higher despite DELTA's decline.</li><li>However, the recovery remains uncertain due to light trading volume.</li></ul>

Most Asian bourses surged, while the SET saw buying activity flow into banking, commerce, hospital, and tourism stocks.In addition, AOT managed to rise, which helped the index close higher despite DELTA's decline.However, the recovery remains uncertain due to light trading volume.

<ul><li>The appreciation of the baht has attracted foreign capital inflows into the Thai bond market, with net purchases exceeding Bt6.8bn MTD since early February.</li><li>As a result, the Thai 10Y bond yield has declined to 2.31%, approaching the policy rate of 2.25%.</li><li>Historically, when the 10Y bond yield falls close to the policy rate, the SET typically reverses within 3-4 months, as foreign capital begins to flow into the Thai stock market, with this pattern observed in 2011, 2016, and 2020 (Figure 1).</li></ul>

The appreciation of the baht has attracted foreign capital inflows into the Thai bond market, with net purchases exceeding Bt6.8bn MTD since early February.As a result, the Thai 10Y bond yield has declined to 2.31%, approaching the policy rate of 2.25%.Historically, when the 10Y bond yield falls close to the policy rate, the SET typically reverses within 3-4 months, as foreign capital begins to flow into the Thai stock market, with this pattern observed in 2011, 2016, and 2020 (Figure 1).

<ul><li>Although the market is likely to revise down EPS estimates following weaker-than- expected 3Q24 earnings, using the KTX implied EPS tool, we find that most sectors (accounting for over 80% of total market capitalization) have partially priced in the negative factors, which limits the downside risk.</li><li>In addition, the SET Index's correction of -0.8% (since the 3Q24 earnings announcements) has kept the market risk premium (MRP) stable at 4.213%, matching the lower bound of the trading buy range at an MRP of 4.21% (-1 S.D.).</li><li>This suggests that the SET is at a level where the risk-reward appears attractive. </li></ul>

Although the market is likely to revise down EPS estimates following weaker-than- expected 3Q24 earnings, using the KTX implied EPS tool, we find that most sectors (accounting for over 80% of total market capitalization) have partially priced in the negative factors, which limits the downside risk.In addition, the SET Index's correction of -0.8% (since the 3Q24 earnings announcements) has kept the market risk premium (MRP) stable at 4.213%, matching the lower bound of the trading buy range at an MRP of 4.21% (-1 S.D.).This suggests that the SET is at a level where the risk-reward appears attractive. 

Special Report: Investment Strategy Post-3Q24 Earnings Reports - NOVEMBER 21, 2024

<ul><li>KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn, with Bt50bn from individual investors and Bt100bn from institutional investors. (Note: these proportions may vary slightly depending on the authorities' discretion.)</li><li>The fund guarantees the principal and offers a minimum annual return of 3% (up to a maximum of 9%) over 10 years.</li><li>This attractive return, combined with high liquidity, is expected to encourage individual investors to shift funds from bank deposits to VAYU1 for better returns. </li></ul>

KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn, with Bt50bn from individual investors and Bt100bn from institutional investors. (Note: these proportions may vary slightly depending on the authorities' discretion.)The fund guarantees the principal and offers a minimum annual return of 3% (up to a maximum of 9%) over 10 years.This attractive return, combined with high liquidity, is expected to encourage individual investors to shift funds from bank deposits to VAYU1 for better returns. 

Special Report – Vayupak Fund 1 (VAYU1)

Thailand

Central Pattana is Thailand's leading retail property developer and investor, specializing in large-scale shopping centers, residential projects, office buildings, and hotels. The company focuses on developing integrated mixed-use properties, combining retail spaces with complementary facilities to offer diverse lifestyle experiences. Central Pattana is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded on June 17, 1980.

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Central Pattana (CPN TB)

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Special Report: Investment Strategy Post-3Q24 Earnings Reports - NOVEMBER 21, 2024

Listed companies reported a combined net profit (SET EPS) of Bt208bn in 3Q24, which was approximately 8.5% below the consensus estimate.

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report – Vayupak Fund 1 (VAYU1)

KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn

Krungthai XSpring

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