ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL</a> is a unique and high-quality proxy for the recovery in domestic consumer demand plus increasing tourist arrivals, which should soon see a further boost from China.</li>
<li>We would expect a strong finish to the year with an even stronger pickup in 2023 across convenience stores, Lotus supermarkets and hypermarkets, as well as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-makro-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5577:1" rel="noopener">Siam Makro</a> cash-and-carry. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL</a> is a top growth pick in Thailand, with EPS expected to grow by +35% and 25% for FY2023E and FY2024E, with ongoing expansion and economic recovery.</li>
</ul>



CP ALL is a unique and high-quality proxy for the recovery in domestic consumer demand plus increasing tourist arrivals, which should soon see a further boost from China.
We would expect a strong finish to the year with an even stronger pickup in 2023 across convenience stores, Lotus supermarkets and hypermarkets, as well as Siam Makro cash-and-carry. 

CP ALL is a top growth pick in Thailand, with EPS expected to grow by +35% and 25% for FY2023E and FY2024E, with ongoing expansion and economic recovery.


CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB) - A King for All Seasons

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Central Retail Corp Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We remain positive on CRC’s food segment growth outlook in 2022 and ahead after the site visit at Tops CLUB store and Tops Food Hall store, backed</li>
<li>Positive toward Site visit at Tops CLUB  We have visited the first Tops CLUB store at behind Bangkok's Central Rama II. Tops CLUB is the first membership-based store of CRC. </li>
<li>Tops CLUB offers big pack size and target on middle to higher-income customers. Currently, Tops CLUB member reached 85,000 members after launched on 28 September 2022.</li>
</ul>


We remain positive on CRC’s food segment growth outlook in 2022 and ahead after the site visit at Tops CLUB store and Tops Food Hall store, backed
Positive toward Site visit at Tops CLUB  We have visited the first Tops CLUB store at behind Bangkok's Central Rama II. Tops CLUB is the first membership-based store of CRC. 
Tops CLUB offers big pack size and target on middle to higher-income customers. Currently, Tops CLUB member reached 85,000 members after launched on 28 September 2022.


<ul>
<li>Maintain HOLD recommendation with a target price of Bt43 due to limited upside to our target price.CRC’s 3Q22 net profit came in at Bt1.2bn (turnaround from a loss of Bt2.2bn,-21%QoQ)</li>
<li>3Q22 profit thanks to strong recover in fashion business   Excluding extraordinary items, core profit was at Bt1.29bn (turnaround from a loss of Bt2.1bn,-30%QoQ). The 9M22 result accounted for 70%</li>
<li>Food business (39% sales contribution), Food revenue was at Bt21bn (+26%YoY, +3%QoQ), following strong SSSG in Thailand (+3%YoY) and Vietnam (+54%YoY), supported by a recovery in customer traffic in stores </li>
</ul>


Maintain HOLD recommendation with a target price of Bt43 due to limited upside to our target price.CRC’s 3Q22 net profit came in at Bt1.2bn (turnaround from a loss of Bt2.2bn,-21%QoQ)
3Q22 profit thanks to strong recover in fashion business   Excluding extraordinary items, core profit was at Bt1.29bn (turnaround from a loss of Bt2.1bn,-30%QoQ). The 9M22 result accounted for 70%
Food business (39% sales contribution), Food revenue was at Bt21bn (+26%YoY, +3%QoQ), following strong SSSG in Thailand (+3%YoY) and Vietnam (+54%YoY), supported by a recovery in customer traffic in stores 


<ul>
<li>Downgrade recommendation for CRC to HOLD from BUY with a target price of Bt43. Our downgrade reflects 1)challenging performance outlook for operation in Italy due to a rise of inflation </li>
<li>Expect 3Q22 earnings to recover to profit Revenue in 3Q22 is expected to report at Bt53bn(+38%YoY,+1%QoQ)driven by an expected positive SSSG in all segments comprise of Food segment at +21%YoY</li>
<li>Gross profit margin in 3Q22 should expand YoY and QoQ to 27.5% backed by heathier margin from sales at 25.6% from 23.1% in 3Q21 and 25.5% in 2Q22</li>
</ul>


Downgrade recommendation for CRC to HOLD from BUY with a target price of Bt43. Our downgrade reflects 1)challenging performance outlook for operation in Italy due to a rise of inflation 
Expect 3Q22 earnings to recover to profit Revenue in 3Q22 is expected to report at Bt53bn(+38%YoY,+1%QoQ)driven by an expected positive SSSG in all segments comprise of Food segment at +21%YoY
Gross profit margin in 3Q22 should expand YoY and QoQ to 27.5% backed by heathier margin from sales at 25.6% from 23.1% in 3Q21 and 25.5% in 2Q22


CRC : Solid Earnings Recovery, but It Has Mostly in the Price

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Global fund managers still suggest increasing holdings of safe-haven assets, such as cash, or investing in sectors with recurring income, notably utilities and health care stocks, while they are bearish on risk assets and global growth in the next 12 months.</li><li>Investors also repriced their expectations regarding the terminal fed funds rate in 1Q23 by 50 bps higher.</li><li>However, we expect the Thai market to see a limited impact from the bearishness thanks to the good earnings recovery momentum, in contrast to global economies, as well as the boost from the huge growth in the number of tourist arrivals from 400k in 2021 to an expected 21mn in 2023E.</li></ul>

Global fund managers still suggest increasing holdings of safe-haven assets, such as cash, or investing in sectors with recurring income, notably utilities and health care stocks, while they are bearish on risk assets and global growth in the next 12 months.Investors also repriced their expectations regarding the terminal fed funds rate in 1Q23 by 50 bps higher.However, we expect the Thai market to see a limited impact from the bearishness thanks to the good earnings recovery momentum, in contrast to global economies, as well as the boost from the huge growth in the number of tourist arrivals from 400k in 2021 to an expected 21mn in 2023E.

Thailand

Central Retail Corp Ltd operates general merchandise stores. The Company offers electronics, sports, stationery, home improvement, and office products. Central Retail serves customers in Thailand.

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Central Retail Corp Ltd (CRC TB)

CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB) - A King for All Seasons

CP ALL is a top growth pick in Thailand, with EPS expected to grow by +35% and 25% for FY2023E and FY2024E, with ongoing expansion and economic...

Angus Mackintosh

CRC : Rebranding for Growth

We remain positive on CRC’s food segment growth outlook in 2022 and ahead after the site visit at Tops CLUB store and Tops Food Hall store, backed...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CRC : 3Q22 Performance Turned to Profit

Maintain HOLD recommendation with a target price of Bt43 due to limited upside to our target price. CRC’s 3Q22 net profit came in at Bt1.2bn...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CRC : Solid Earnings Recovery, but It Has Mostly in the Price

Downgrade recommendation for CRC to HOLD from BUY with a target price of Bt43. Our downgrade reflects 1) challenging performance outlook for...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Fund Manager Survey - No Cuts, No Glory

Global fund managers still suggest increasing holdings of safe-haven assets, such as cash, or investing in sectors with recurring income, notably...

Krungthai XSpring

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