Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Central Retail Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Foreigners to buy back stocks whose share prices fell sharply last year, boosting stocks in the consumer discretionary sector</li><li>The SET Index is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,670-1,690 points.</li><li>As for daily investment, we recommend stocks in the retail and food sectors whose share prices have recently underperformed the market but are expected to show good earnings growth in 2023E, as they will benefit from ongoing fund flows toward consumer discretionary stocks</li></ul>

Foreigners to buy back stocks whose share prices fell sharply last year, boosting stocks in the consumer discretionary sectorThe SET Index is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,670-1,690 points.As for daily investment, we recommend stocks in the retail and food sectors whose share prices have recently underperformed the market but are expected to show good earnings growth in 2023E, as they will benefit from ongoing fund flows toward consumer discretionary stocks

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-retail-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28240:1" rel="noopener">Central Retail Corp</a> remains a core holding to play the retail recovery in Thailand and Vietnam, with the tailwind from the recovery in tourism providing an additional boost. </li>
<li>The company has seen a dramatic recovery in its fashion business along with higher margins plus it is expanding new stores and launching new formats such as Tops CLUB. </li>
<li>Vietnam provides an additional growth driver through BigC and GO Stores, where it is the omnichannel market leader, with Italy under Rinascente already ahead of pre-COVID sales levels.</li>
</ul>



Central Retail Corp remains a core holding to play the retail recovery in Thailand and Vietnam, with the tailwind from the recovery in tourism providing an additional boost. 
The company has seen a dramatic recovery in its fashion business along with higher margins plus it is expanding new stores and launching new formats such as Tops CLUB. 
Vietnam provides an additional growth driver through BigC and GO Stores, where it is the omnichannel market leader, with Italy under Rinascente already ahead of pre-COVID sales levels.


Central Retail Corp Ltd (CRC TB) - Realising a Fashionable Recovery

<ul><li>We expect the MPC to continue raising the policy interest rate in 2023E to the terminal rate of 2.0%, which is where the real rate will turn positive at +0.1%, based on a CPI of 1.9% as of the end of 4Q23E (Bloomberg consensus).</li><li>The 2023E Thai economy is projected to grow at its full potential at 4.5% YoY (vs. the current projection of 3.7% YoY) on the back of the expected recovery of tourism thanks to China’s sooner-than-anticipated reopening.</li><li>Meanwhile, inflation has continued to slow down. We continue to recommend reopening plays whose earnings are likely to recover in line with the Thai economic outlook. </li></ul>

We expect the MPC to continue raising the policy interest rate in 2023E to the terminal rate of 2.0%, which is where the real rate will turn positive at +0.1%, based on a CPI of 1.9% as of the end of 4Q23E (Bloomberg consensus).The 2023E Thai economy is projected to grow at its full potential at 4.5% YoY (vs. the current projection of 3.7% YoY) on the back of the expected recovery of tourism thanks to China’s sooner-than-anticipated reopening.Meanwhile, inflation has continued to slow down. We continue to recommend reopening plays whose earnings are likely to recover in line with the Thai economic outlook. 

MPC - MPC Raised the Policy Interest Rate by 0.25% to 1.50%

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL</a> is a unique and high-quality proxy for the recovery in domestic consumer demand plus increasing tourist arrivals, which should soon see a further boost from China.</li>
<li>We would expect a strong finish to the year with an even stronger pickup in 2023 across convenience stores, Lotus supermarkets and hypermarkets, as well as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-makro-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5577:1" rel="noopener">Siam Makro</a> cash-and-carry. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL</a> is a top growth pick in Thailand, with EPS expected to grow by +35% and 25% for FY2023E and FY2024E, with ongoing expansion and economic recovery.</li>
</ul>



CP ALL is a unique and high-quality proxy for the recovery in domestic consumer demand plus increasing tourist arrivals, which should soon see a further boost from China.
We would expect a strong finish to the year with an even stronger pickup in 2023 across convenience stores, Lotus supermarkets and hypermarkets, as well as Siam Makro cash-and-carry. 

CP ALL is a top growth pick in Thailand, with EPS expected to grow by +35% and 25% for FY2023E and FY2024E, with ongoing expansion and economic recovery.


CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB) - A King for All Seasons

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,615/1,620 points and the support at 1,600/1,597 points.</li><li>Negative factors include the Thai trade balance in November, which is forecast to continue to mark a deficit, albeit to a lesser extent than in October.</li><li>We thus recommend holding cash or brief speculation.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,615/1,620 points and the support at 1,600/1,597 points.Negative factors include the Thai trade balance in November, which is forecast to continue to mark a deficit, albeit to a lesser extent than in October.We thus recommend holding cash or brief speculation.

Thailand

Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited is a multi-format retailing business operating across Thailand, Italy, and Vietnam, and is a flagship company of Central Group. It offers a diverse portfolio across food, fashion, hardline, and property segments, encompassing department stores, supermarkets, hypermarkets, specialty stores, and omnichannel services. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Central Retail Corporation (CRC TB)

World Market Summary

Foreigners to buy back stocks whose share prices fell sharply last year, boosting stocks in the consumer discretionary sector The SET Index is...

Krungthai XSpring

Central Retail Corp Ltd (CRC TB) - Realising a Fashionable Recovery

Central Retail Corp remains a core holding to play the retail recovery in Thailand and Vietnam, with the tailwind from the recovery in tourism...

Angus Mackintosh

MPC - MPC Raised the Policy Interest Rate by 0.25% to 1.50%

We expect the MPC to continue raising the policy interest rate in 2023E to the terminal rate of 2.0%, which is where the real rate will turn...

Krungthai XSpring

CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB) - A King for All Seasons

CP ALL is a top growth pick in Thailand, with EPS expected to grow by +35% and 25% for FY2023E and FY2024E, with ongoing expansion and economic...

Angus Mackintosh

Market Outlook

The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,615/1,620 points and the support at 1,600/1,597 points. Negative factors...

Krungthai XSpring

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