Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus., Carbon Tracker Initiative

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus.

Carbon Tracker and Planet Tracker - part of the Tracker Group - are award-winning, non-profit financial think tanks focused on the climate–nature nexus.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>What Lies Beneath delivers a clear warning investors cannot afford to overlook: asset retirement obligations (AROs) represent a financially material, fast‑evolving risk for oil and gas companies—and current disclosures fall far short of what is needed to judge that exposure.</li><li>This research provides a rigorous, data‑driven assessment showing that, across 38 companies in Australia, Canada, and the UK, transparency around AROs is deeply inadequate—despite the obligations often reaching levels comparable to, or even exceeding, shareholders’ equity.</li><li>The report reveals that most companies provide only fragmentary insight into the estimated costs, timing, discount rates, and inflation assumptions underpinning their ARO liabilities, leaving investors unable to assess liquidity impacts or the risk of abrupt increases in decommissioning costs as the energy transition accelerates.</li></ul>

What Lies Beneath delivers a clear warning investors cannot afford to overlook: asset retirement obligations (AROs) represent a financially material, fast‑evolving risk for oil and gas companies—and current disclosures fall far short of what is needed to judge that exposure.This research provides a rigorous, data‑driven assessment showing that, across 38 companies in Australia, Canada, and the UK, transparency around AROs is deeply inadequate—despite the obligations often reaching levels comparable to, or even exceeding, shareholders’ equity.The report reveals that most companies provide only fragmentary insight into the estimated costs, timing, discount rates, and inflation assumptions underpinning their ARO liabilities, leaving investors unable to assess liquidity impacts or the risk of abrupt increases in decommissioning costs as the energy transition accelerates.

Energy Transition: Asset Retirement Obligations: What Lies Beneath?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>After a multi-year drop in ownership, UK fund exposure in HSBC Holdings is on the rise. </li>
<li>Over the last 6-months, average fund weights have increased by +0.33% as new positions outnumbered closing positions by a factor of 2.</li>
<li>With increasing active fund ownership and rising benchmark weights, UK Equity funds need higher conviction to omit HSBC from their portfolio.</li>
</ul>


After a multi-year drop in ownership, UK fund exposure in HSBC Holdings is on the rise. 
Over the last 6-months, average fund weights have increased by +0.33% as new positions outnumbered closing positions by a factor of 2.
With increasing active fund ownership and rising benchmark weights, UK Equity funds need higher conviction to omit HSBC from their portfolio.


Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Centrica plc is a British multinational energy and services company with its headquarters in Windsor, Berkshire. Its principal activity is the supply of electricity and gas to consumers in the United Kingdom and Ireland. It also provides energy solutions and trading to businesses worldwide.

Video: Centrica | Company Presentation | Edison Open House: Transport Futures 2021

Equity analyst UK & Europe, UK Long Short

Peter Toeman

Equity analyst UK & Europe

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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<p><strong>The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket.  A tough market background and Brexit concerns have reduced in-flows into Wealth and Investment Management companies. This growth hiatus could last for some time.  </strong></p>
<h2><strong>Hargreaves Lansdown: What does it do ?</strong></h2>
<p>Hargreaves Lansdown is a wealth manager and private client stockbroker with a market value of  GBP8bn. It provides the UK's largest direct to investor platform administering £86bn of investments for more than 1.1m active clients</p>
<h2><strong>Why is it in the Short portfolio ?</strong></h2>
<p>Interim figures for the 6 months to December 2018, (published 29th Jan)  mark a deterioration in operating performance brought about by adverse market conditions. Assets under administration declined and net new business was 25% down on the prior year. Earnings per share increased 4%. The share price declined 6% on the day of the results but has subsequently been stable leaving the group on a forward multiple of over 30x. Unless the retail investment market recovers quickly this premium rating may prove vulnerable. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/444/original/port%202.PNG?1551297124" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80444"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">S&amp;P Capital IQ</div>

The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket.  A tough market background and Brexit concerns have reduced in-flows into Wealth and Investment Management companies. This growth hiatus could last for some time.  
Hargreaves Lansdown: What does it do ?
Hargreaves Lansdown is a wealth manager and private client stockbroker with a market value of  GBP8bn. It provides the UK's largest direct to investor platform administering £86bn of investments for more than 1.1m active clients
Why is it in the Short portfolio ?
Interim figures for the 6 months to December 2018, (published 29th Jan)  mark a deterioration in operating performance brought about by adverse market conditions. Assets under administration declined and net new business was 25% down on the prior year. Earnings per share increased 4%. The share price declined 6% on the day of the results but has subsequently been stable leaving the group on a forward multiple of over 30x. Unless the retail investment market recovers quickly this premium rating may prove vulnerable. 

S&amp;P Capital IQ

Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/:LN) No Flow, No Go

<p>The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket. My purpose is to identify a portfolio of UK shorts and occasional longs.  </p>
<p><strong>Centrica PLC: What does it do ?</strong></p>
<p>Centrica, through its operating subsidiary British gas is the largest of the six major energy supply companies operating in the UK. The core activity, and providing around 70% of revenues, is energy supply to households and businesses in the UK, US and Canada. The group has a 28% share of the home energy market in the UK and 13% of the market in US. In energy supply to businesses, Centrica is the second largest supplier in the US where it claims a 15% market share. Beyond energy supply Centrica has three established business, Services, Trading, and E&amp;P, and two nascent high growth businesses Distributed Energy &amp; Power and Connected Home</p>
<p><strong>Why is it in the short portfolio?</strong></p>
<p>Energy Supply is dominated by regulation and price conscious consumers which has lead management to predict a flat revenue outcome over the long term. Customer numbers are declining, the recently introduced default tariff price cap will eat into revenues, and higher gas prices are unhelpful.</p>
<p>Recognizing the problem management intend to treat Energy Supply as a cash-cow re-investing its cash-flow into the growth businesses. However the available upside from these new ventures may not provide sufficient compensation. More immediately consideration of cash-flow suggests the dividend, currently supporting the shares with a near 9% yield, may not prove sustainable.</p>

The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket. My purpose is to identify a portfolio of UK shorts and occasional longs.  
Centrica PLC: What does it do ?
Centrica, through its operating subsidiary British gas is the largest of the six major energy supply companies operating in the UK. The core activity, and providing around 70% of revenues, is energy supply to households and businesses in the UK, US and Canada. The group has a 28% share of the home energy market in the UK and 13% of the market in US. In energy supply to businesses, Centrica is the second largest supplier in the US where it claims a 15% market share. Beyond energy supply Centrica has three established business, Services, Trading, and E&amp;P, and two nascent high growth businesses Distributed Energy &amp; Power and Connected Home
Why is it in the short portfolio?
Energy Supply is dominated by regulation and price conscious consumers which has lead management to predict a flat revenue outcome over the long term. Customer numbers are declining, the recently introduced default tariff price cap will eat into revenues, and higher gas prices are unhelpful.
Recognizing the problem management intend to treat Energy Supply as a cash-cow re-investing its cash-flow into the growth businesses. However the available upside from these new ventures may not provide sufficient compensation. More immediately consideration of cash-flow suggests the dividend, currently supporting the shares with a near 9% yield, may not prove sustainable.

Centrica PLC (CNA LN): Lots of Gas but No Fizz

United Kingdom

Centrica plc is a British multinational energy and services company that provides electricity and gas supply, energy solutions, and home services. The company connects customers to secure, efficient, and low-carbon energy solutions, including smart technology and energy storage, operating through brands like British Gas and Bord Gáis Energy. It was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Windsor, United Kingdom.

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Centrica (CNA LN)

Energy Transition: Asset Retirement Obligations: What Lies Beneath?

What Lies Beneath delivers a clear warning investors cannot afford to overlook: asset retirement obligations (AROs) represent a financially...

Carbon Tracker Initiative

HSBC Holdings: Conviction Returns

After years of decline, UK active managers are buying back into HSBC. Increased fund ownership and rising index weights make it more difficult for...

Steven Holden

Video: Centrica | Company Presentation | Edison Open House: Transport Futures 2021

Centrica plc is a British multinational energy and services company with its headquarters in Windsor, Berkshire. Its principal activity is the...

Edison Investment Research

Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/:LN) No Flow, No Go

The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket. A tough market...

Boost Research

Centrica PLC (CNA LN): Lots of Gas but No Fizz

The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket. My purpose is to...

Boost Research

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