Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.</p>

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 adds/deletes each for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index and for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index in June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/x-energy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47990:1" rel="noopener">X-Energy (XE US)</a> will be added to both indices while the other adds and deletes differ across the indices.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across both indices is US$1.65bn with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 adds/deletes each for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index and for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index in June.

X-Energy (XE US) will be added to both indices while the other adds and deletes differ across the indices.
The round-trip trade across both indices is US$1.65bn with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.


MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$1.65bn Trade

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add/delete for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index while there are no constituent changes for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isoenergy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43145:1" rel="noopener">IsoEnergy (ISO CN)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ur-energy-inc-845bf87b-f51b-4d57-8b7e-f6696dc23213" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39270:1" rel="noopener">Ur-Energy (URG US)</a> in the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index at the close on 20 March.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across both indices is US$1.05bn with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add/delete for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index while there are no constituent changes for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.

IsoEnergy (ISO CN) will replace Ur-Energy (URG US) in the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index at the close on 20 March.
The round-trip trade across both indices is US$1.05bn with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.


MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: US$1.05bn Net Trade Across Indices

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.</li>
<li>The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 6 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 15 October.</li>
<li>There are 217 adds and 224 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.3bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 6 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 15 October.
There are 217 adds and 224 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.3bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.


WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.3bn Round-Trip Trade

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-mining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6426:1" rel="noopener">Cgn Mining (1164 HK)</a> is an add to both indices. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/endesa-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21264:1" rel="noopener">Endesa SA</a> is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/encore-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39218:1" rel="noopener">Encore Energy</a> is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.

Cgn Mining (1164 HK) is an add to both indices. Endesa SA is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Index, Encore Energy is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.


MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining

Czech Republic

CEZ, a. s. provides integrated energy services. The Company generation, distribution, trade in, and sales of electricity and heat, as well as sales of natural gas, and coal extraction. CEZ serves customers in Europe.

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CEZ AS (CEZ CP)

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our cautious outlook is reinforced by ongoing developments. Relative strength improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Health...

Vermilion Research

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$1.65bn Trade

There are 2 constituent changes each for the NLR and NUCL ETFs. Along with float and capping changes, the gross round-trip trade across both...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: US$1.05bn Net Trade Across Indices

IsoEnergy will replace Ur-Energy in the NLR ETF. The round-trip trade across both indices is US$1.05bn. There are a few stocks with over 1x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.3bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 217 adds/224 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index. The round-trip trade is around US$2.3bn and there are a...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining

CGN Mining is a double add, while Endesa and enCore Energy are deletes. Estimated net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m.

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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