Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASPEED's July revenue amounted to NTD 601 million,  up 159% YoY </li>
<li>ASPEED's YTD revenue of NTD 2,970 million, is up 88% YoY</li>
<li>This bodes well for H224 server shipments, both general purpose and AI accelerated and should be reflected in NVIDIA's earnings/outlook scheduled for August 28</li>
</ul>


ASPEED's July revenue amounted to NTD 601 million,  up 159% YoY 
ASPEED's YTD revenue of NTD 2,970 million, is up 88% YoY
This bodes well for H224 server shipments, both general purpose and AI accelerated and should be reflected in NVIDIA's earnings/outlook scheduled for August 28


ASPEED's 159% July Revenue YoY Growth Bodes Well For H224 AI Server Shipments

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.</li>
<li>TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.</li>
<li>We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.</li>
</ul>


Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.
TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.
We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.


From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;</li>
<li>Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;</li>
<li>Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.</li>
</ul>


After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;
Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;
Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.


What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech Stocks Rally, But Lag Nvidia's Massive Rally; Prepare for Nvidia, Dell, HP Results Next Week</li>
<li>Hon Hai &amp; Zhen Ding Show No Major AI Slowdown; Taiwan AI Supply Chain Names Lag Nvidia's Rebound </li>
<li>TSMC Foundry 2.0: Strategic Shift Or Brand Tinkering? Why It Is Significant</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech Stocks Rally, But Lag Nvidia's Massive Rally; Prepare for Nvidia, Dell, HP Results Next Week
Hon Hai &amp; Zhen Ding Show No Major AI Slowdown; Taiwan AI Supply Chain Names Lag Nvidia's Rebound 
TSMC Foundry 2.0: Strategic Shift Or Brand Tinkering? Why It Is Significant


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan Rebound Lagging Nvidia; Why TSMC's 'Foundry 2.0' Is Significant

<ul>
<li>Top Gainers/Loser: Taiwan Tech Stocks Hit Hard Last Week By Global AI/Tech Pullback</li>
<li>Key Events This Week: Major Earnings Week Including UMC, Mediatek, Realtek, AMD, Microsoft</li>
<li>TechChain Insights: Call with Silicon Motion; QLC NAND Emerging as Key Enabler for AI Devices </li>
</ul>


Top Gainers/Loser: Taiwan Tech Stocks Hit Hard Last Week By Global AI/Tech Pullback
Key Events This Week: Major Earnings Week Including UMC, Mediatek, Realtek, AMD, Microsoft
TechChain Insights: Call with Silicon Motion; QLC NAND Emerging as Key Enabler for AI Devices 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hit Hard By AI/Tech Pullback; Watch UMC, Mediatek, Realtek, AMD, MSFT Earnings

Taiwan

Quanta Computer Inc. manufactures and markets notebook computers and related peripheral equipment.

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Quanta Computer (2382 TT)

ASPEED's 159% July Revenue YoY Growth Bodes Well For H224 AI Server Shipments

ASPEED's July revenue NTD 601 million, up 159% YoY. YTD revenue NTD 2,970 million, is up 88% YoY. Bodes well for H224 server shipments & NVIDIA's...

William Keating

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories? Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news already factored into the share price. We...

Andrew Lu

What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Names to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025? Different from consensus, we expect non AI server market...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan Rebound Lagging Nvidia; Why TSMC's 'Foundry 2.0' Is Significant

Taiwan tech stocks rally but lag behind Nvidia; focus on upcoming results from Nvidia, Dell, and HP. TSMC's strategic shift to Foundry 2.0 is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hit Hard By AI/Tech Pullback; Watch UMC, Mediatek, Realtek, AMD, MSFT Earnings

A recap of last week's gainers and losers plus key events to watch out for this week and recently published research pieces.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ASPEED's 159% July Revenue YoY Growth Bodes Well For H224 AI Server Shipments

ASPEED's July revenue NTD 601 million, up 159% YoY. YTD revenue NTD 2,970 million, is up 88% YoY. Bodes well for H224 server shipments & NVIDIA's...

William Keating

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories? Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news already factored into the share price. We...

Andrew Lu

What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Names to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025? Different from consensus, we expect non AI server market...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan Rebound Lagging Nvidia; Why TSMC's 'Foundry 2.0' Is Significant

​Taiwan tech stocks rally but lag behind Nvidia; focus on upcoming results from Nvidia, Dell, and HP. TSMC's strategic shift to Foundry 2.0 is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hit Hard By AI/Tech Pullback; Watch UMC, Mediatek, Realtek, AMD, MSFT Earnings

A recap of last week's gainers and losers plus key events to watch out for this week and recently published research pieces.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan tech stocks rally but lag behind Nvidia; focus on upcoming results from Nvidia, Dell, and HP. TSMC's strategic shift to Foundry 2.0 is...