Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 17th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,271.1bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD16,618mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Mediatek, Evergreen Marine, Inventec, Alchip Tech, Wistron, Delta Elec, Ctbc Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 17th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,271.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD16,618mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Mediatek, Evergreen Marine, Inventec, Alchip Tech, Wistron, Delta Elec, Ctbc Financial.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 17th): TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Mediatek

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 17th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD98.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital, Unimicron Tech, Shihlin Elec&amp;Eng, Ap Memory Tech, Yang Ming Marine, China Airlines.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 17th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD98.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital, Unimicron Tech, Shihlin Elec&amp;Eng, Ap Memory Tech, Yang Ming Marine, China Airlines.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 17th): Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital, Unimicron Tech

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.</li>
<li>TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.</li>
<li>We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.</li>
</ul>


Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.
TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.
We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.


From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;</li>
<li>Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;</li>
<li>Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.</li>
</ul>


After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;
Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;
Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.


What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

<ul>
<li>Apple will report its earnings on August 3rd, 14:00 PDT. We highlight two potential trades into the Apple earnings event.</li>
<li>Quanta Computer has massively outperformed Apple due to investors latching on to its AI-server growth story. One can consider to Long Apple / Short Quanta into the Apple earnings event.</li>
<li>Hon Hai, Flexium, and Zhen Ding have all lagged Apple's shares yet generate significant revenue from Apple. One can Long a basket of the three into Apple's earnings.</li>
</ul>


Apple will report its earnings on August 3rd, 14:00 PDT. We highlight two potential trades into the Apple earnings event.
Quanta Computer has massively outperformed Apple due to investors latching on to its AI-server growth story. One can consider to Long Apple / Short Quanta into the Apple earnings event.
Hon Hai, Flexium, and Zhen Ding have all lagged Apple's shares yet generate significant revenue from Apple. One can Long a basket of the three into Apple's earnings.


Taiwan Apple Ecosystem Monitor: Two Potential Event Trades into Apple Earnings

Taiwan

Quanta Computer Inc. manufactures and markets notebook computers and related peripheral equipment.

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Quanta Computer (2382 TT)

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 17th): TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Mediatek

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 17th): Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital, Unimicron Tech

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories? Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news already factored into the share price. We...

Andrew Lu

What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Names to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025? Different from consensus, we expect non AI server market...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Apple Ecosystem Monitor: Two Potential Event Trades into Apple Earnings

Apple will report its earnings on August 3rd. We highlight one Long / Short and one Long-Only Basket trade into the event.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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