Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.</li>
<li>We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.</li>
<li>Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500</li>
</ul>


As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.
We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.
Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500


Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

<ul>
<li>Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term...</li>
<li>SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.</li>
<li>5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.</li>
</ul>


Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term...
SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.
5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.


Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Cf Industries Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>CF Industries Holdings, Inc. recently announced its financial performance for the first nine months, including the third quarter of 2024.</li><li>The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $511 million for the third quarter and a total of $1.7 billion for the first nine months.</li><li>The results demonstrate robust financial discipline and operational excellence despite logistical challenges and unforeseen production disruptions due to weather conditions and tragic accidents, notably the fatal incident at the Donaldsonville facility.</li></ul>

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. recently announced its financial performance for the first nine months, including the third quarter of 2024.The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $511 million for the third quarter and a total of $1.7 billion for the first nine months.The results demonstrate robust financial discipline and operational excellence despite logistical challenges and unforeseen production disruptions due to weather conditions and tragic accidents, notably the fatal incident at the Donaldsonville facility.

CF Industries: Will Its Expansion Into Clean Energy Projects Be A Breakthrough Move? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>CF Industries reported notable operational and financial results for the first half and second quarter of 2024, reflecting strong performance despite a mix of ongoing challenges and strategic advancements.</li><li>The company, a major player in the nitrogen fertilizer industry, generated an adjusted EBITDA of $750 million for the quarter, bringing the figure to $1.2 billion for the half-year period.</li><li>Key drivers included robust operational rates at ammonia plants, particularly the Waggaman facility which outperformed expectations, and significant strides in its decarbonization initiatives which include several carbon capture and sequestration projects.</li></ul>

CF Industries reported notable operational and financial results for the first half and second quarter of 2024, reflecting strong performance despite a mix of ongoing challenges and strategic advancements.The company, a major player in the nitrogen fertilizer industry, generated an adjusted EBITDA of $750 million for the quarter, bringing the figure to $1.2 billion for the half-year period.Key drivers included robust operational rates at ammonia plants, particularly the Waggaman facility which outperformed expectations, and significant strides in its decarbonization initiatives which include several carbon capture and sequestration projects.

CF Industries: Dealing With Geopolitical and International Market Dynamics! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>The first quarter of 2024 was marked by operational disruptions and lower production for CF Industries Holdings Inc., a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products.</li><li>Unplanned downtime and plant outages caused by severe cold in January resulted in a significant loss of production, which affected the company's earnings.</li><li>The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $460 million for the quarter.</li></ul>

The first quarter of 2024 was marked by operational disruptions and lower production for CF Industries Holdings Inc., a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products.Unplanned downtime and plant outages caused by severe cold in January resulted in a significant loss of production, which affected the company's earnings.The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $460 million for the quarter.

CF Industries:  Impact of Clean Ammonia Market and Demand! - Major Drivers

United States

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and distributes nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products globally. The Company's principal products in the nitrogen segment are ammonia, urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, ammonium nitrate, diesel exhaust fluid and aqua ammonia. The principal products in the phosphate segment are diammonium phosphate and  monoammonium phosphate.

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Cf Industries Holdings (CF US)

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on $SPX, Now Also Upgrading Intermediate-Term Outlook to Bullish; Upgrading Technology $XLK $SMH...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Overweight; Still Intermediate-Term Bearish/Cautious, But use 5100-5120 on $SPX as a stop loss and a level to...

Vermilion Research

CF Industries: Will Its Expansion Into Clean Energy Projects Be A Breakthrough Move? - Major Drivers

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. recently announced its financial performance for the first nine months, including the third quarter of 2024. The...

Baptista Research

CF Industries: Dealing With Geopolitical and International Market Dynamics! - Major Drivers

CF Industries reported notable operational and financial results for the first half and second quarter of 2024, reflecting strong performance...

Baptista Research

CF Industries: Impact of Clean Ammonia Market and Demand! - Major Drivers

The first quarter of 2024 was marked by operational disruptions and lower production for CF Industries Holdings Inc., a leading global...

Baptista Research

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