Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5500.</li>
<li>Our base case expectation is that SPX holds above short-term gap support at 5700-5785 (which is also where the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs all converge).</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5500.
Our base case expectation is that SPX holds above short-term gap support at 5700-5785 (which is also where the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs all converge).


Gap Supports Holding; Expecting Test of All-Time Highs; Long-Term Treasury Yields Rolling Over?

<ul>
<li>The market remains relentlessly strong, shrugging off the latest "bearish" headline regarding Moody's U.S. debt downgrade on Friday.</li>
<li>This is exactly what we would expect to happen in a bull market, particularly during this "lockout rally," and helps confirm our bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500, while short-term gap support is at 5700-5785. We expect a test of all-time highs soon.</li>
</ul>


The market remains relentlessly strong, shrugging off the latest "bearish" headline regarding Moody's U.S. debt downgrade on Friday.
This is exactly what we would expect to happen in a bull market, particularly during this "lockout rally," and helps confirm our bullish outlook.
Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500, while short-term gap support is at 5700-5785. We expect a test of all-time highs soon.


Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Alphabet subsidiary, Google Quantum AI, launched its latest quantum computing chip, Willow, which can solve a specific problem in &lt;5 mins that would take a supercomputer 10 septillion years</li>
<li>Share prices of quantum computing related companies soared in December, ranging from 4.5x in the case of IonQ to ~17x for Quantum Computing Inc. </li>
<li>D-Wave &amp; Rigetti, both threatened with delisting in November, got their Christmas miracle with their share prices surging by 8x and 11x respectively. </li>
</ul>


Alphabet subsidiary, Google Quantum AI, launched its latest quantum computing chip, Willow, which can solve a specific problem in &lt;5 mins that would take a supercomputer 10 septillion years
Share prices of quantum computing related companies soared in December, ranging from 4.5x in the case of IonQ to ~17x for Quantum Computing Inc. 
D-Wave &amp; Rigetti, both threatened with delisting in November, got their Christmas miracle with their share prices surging by 8x and 11x respectively. 


Quantum Computing Part 1. Christmas Miracles & Multiverse Musings

<ul>
<li>A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.</li>
<li>We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).</li>
<li>Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.</li>
</ul>


A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.
We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).
Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.


Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

Microstrategy Inc Cl A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common</li>
<li>And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers</li>
<li>The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area</li>
</ul>


In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common
And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area


Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Canada

D-Wave Quantum Inc. provides computer and hardware products. The Company offers quantum computing systems, software, developer tools, and services to enterprises, governments, laboratories, and financial institutions. D-Wave Quantum serves customers worldwide.

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D-Wave Quantum (QBTS US)

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Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

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Quantum Computing Part 1. Christmas Miracles & Multiverse Musings

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William Keating

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

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Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

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