Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.</li>
<li>We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.</li>
<li>Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500</li>
</ul>


As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.
We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.
Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500


Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

<ul>
<li>Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term...</li>
<li>SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.</li>
<li>5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.</li>
</ul>


Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term...
SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.
5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.


Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>North American allocations continue to trend higher, hitting a record average weight of 58.1% across the 358 global funds in our analysis</li>
<li>North America has consistently stolen market share from other key global regions, most notably Developed Market Europe, where average fund weights have hit all-time lows of 24.24%</li>
<li>Sectors driving allocations higher are led by Energy, Health Care and Industrials with active rotation in to all 3, whilst Consumer Staples have seen signs of investor fatigue.</li>
</ul>


North American allocations continue to trend higher, hitting a record average weight of 58.1% across the 358 global funds in our analysis
North America has consistently stolen market share from other key global regions, most notably Developed Market Europe, where average fund weights have hit all-time lows of 24.24%
Sectors driving allocations higher are led by Energy, Health Care and Industrials with active rotation in to all 3, whilst Consumer Staples have seen signs of investor fatigue.


North America Hits New Highs as Global Rotation Continues

Technology Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bearish at the index level considering we have yet to see any developments that suggest a bottom is in. </li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Russell Micro Cap (IWC) indexes remain in downtrends.</li>
<li>In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials, Manufacturing,  Services, and Utilities: MA-14 Fertilizer, MF-15 Railroad Equipment &amp; Products, SV-13 Construction &amp; Engineering, Large-Cap, UT-04 Electric, Mid-Atlantic</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bearish at the index level considering we have yet to see any developments that suggest a bottom is in. 
The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Russell Micro Cap (IWC) indexes remain in downtrends.
In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials, Manufacturing,  Services, and Utilities: MA-14 Fertilizer, MF-15 Railroad Equipment &amp; Products, SV-13 Construction &amp; Engineering, Large-Cap, UT-04 Electric, Mid-Atlantic


<ul>
<li>Our key "lines in the sand" were tested last week, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on QQQ, 33,250 on the DJIA, and $102.50 on the S&amp;P 600 (IJR).</li>
<li>After a brief dip below these levels, buyers immediately stepped up and reclaimed these supports. It was a clear win for the bulls (for now).</li>
<li>Attractive and actionable Groups highlighted include fertilizer (ag chemicals), aerospace/defense, and shipping.</li>
</ul>


Our key "lines in the sand" were tested last week, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on QQQ, 33,250 on the DJIA, and $102.50 on the S&amp;P 600 (IJR).
After a brief dip below these levels, buyers immediately stepped up and reclaimed these supports. It was a clear win for the bulls (for now).
Attractive and actionable Groups highlighted include fertilizer (ag chemicals), aerospace/defense, and shipping.


Volatility & Consolidation Continues; Buying Ag Chemicals, Aerospace/Defense, and Shipping Stocks

United States

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and distributes nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products globally. The Company's principal products in the nitrogen segment are ammonia, urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, ammonium nitrate, diesel exhaust fluid and aqua ammonia. The principal products in the phosphate segment are diammonium phosphate and  monoammonium phosphate.

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Cf Industries Holdings (CF US)

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on $SPX, Now Also Upgrading Intermediate-Term Outlook to Bullish; Upgrading Technology $XLK $SMH...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Overweight; Still Intermediate-Term Bearish/Cautious, But use 5100-5120 on $SPX as a stop loss and a level to...

Vermilion Research

North America Hits New Highs as Global Rotation Continues

North American allocations among active Global investors hit record highs, driven by Energy, Health Care and Industrials rotation.

Steven Holden

Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Downgrading Technology to underweight. Attractive and actionable stocks highlighted: Fertilizer, Railroad Equipment & Products, Construction &...

Vermilion Research

Volatility & Consolidation Continues; Buying Ag Chemicals, Aerospace/Defense, and Shipping Stocks

Moving forward we continue to expect more volatility and consolidation between 4257 and 4590-4595 on the S&P 500, and between $334 and $367 on the...

Vermilion Research

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