Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In Q1FY24, the HSIE CD index revenue (ex-OEM) grew by 11% YoY (+9% four-year CAGR)</li><li>The growth was largely led by C&amp;W categories, which grew by 29% YoY (18% four-year CAGR), given sustained momentum in domestic infra/industrial and export tailwinds</li><li>Ex of C&amp;W, performance remained weak, given (1) high inflation impacting demand and (2) erratic weather impacting the sale of cooling products in April-May (June saw some recovery)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q1FY24, the HSIE CD index revenue (ex-OEM) grew by 11% YoY (+9% four-year CAGR)The growth was largely led by C&amp;W categories, which grew by 29% YoY (18% four-year CAGR), given sustained momentum in domestic infra/industrial and export tailwindsEx of C&amp;W, performance remained weak, given (1) high inflation impacting demand and (2) erratic weather impacting the sale of cooling products in April-May (June saw some recovery)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Durables: Recovery visible on growth and margin

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

<ul><li>In Q4FY23, the HSIE CD index revenue (ex-OEM) grew by 6% YoY (+12% four-year CAGR), led by cooling/C&amp;W categories, which grew by 14/11/% YoY (15/15% CAGR)</li><li>Electric consumer durable (ECD) and lighting categories were weak at -3%/flat YoY (+7%/flat four-year CAGR)</li><li>Aggregate EBIT (ex-OEM) was up by 9% YoY (9% four-year CAGR) but it was largely driven by C&amp;W, which was up 30/19% YoY/CAGR</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q4FY23, the HSIE CD index revenue (ex-OEM) grew by 6% YoY (+12% four-year CAGR), led by cooling/C&amp;W categories, which grew by 14/11/% YoY (15/15% CAGR)Electric consumer durable (ECD) and lighting categories were weak at -3%/flat YoY (+7%/flat four-year CAGR)Aggregate EBIT (ex-OEM) was up by 9% YoY (9% four-year CAGR) but it was largely driven by C&amp;W, which was up 30/19% YoY/CAGRContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Durables: Demand a mixed bag comfort on valuation

<ul><li>Weak Q2 print, aggregate revenue YoY/three-year CAGR at 6/12%: Our appliances coverage universe is expected to deliver revenue YoY/three-year CAGR (ex-Butterfly acquisition) of 6/12% in Q2FY23 (vs 24/11% in Q2FY22 and 61/9% in Q1FY23)</li><li>The quarter marred by destocking impact, unfavorable base, and extended monsoon saw weak execution</li><li>The premium segment has done well across categories but mass segment has seen slowdown during Q2.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weak Q2 print, aggregate revenue YoY/three-year CAGR at 6/12%: Our appliances coverage universe is expected to deliver revenue YoY/three-year CAGR (ex-Butterfly acquisition) of 6/12% in Q2FY23 (vs 24/11% in Q2FY22 and 61/9% in Q1FY23)The quarter marred by destocking impact, unfavorable base, and extended monsoon saw weak executionThe premium segment has done well across categories but mass segment has seen slowdown during Q2.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Durables (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Weak Q2 print, expect better H2FY23 delivery

India

CG Power and Industrial Solutions Limited manufactures, distributes, installs and services electrical and allied equipment. The Company offers transformers, reactors, switchgear control equipment and accessories, industrial motors, pumps, and communication systems. CG Power and Industrial Solutions serves customers globally.

CG Power and Industrial Solutions (CGPOWER IN)

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CG Power and Industrial Solutions (CGPOWER IN)

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Consumer Durables: Recovery visible on growth and margin

The growth was largely led by C&W categories, which grew by 29% YoY (18% four-year CAGR), given sustained momentum in domestic infra/industrial and...

HDFC Securities

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

Consumer Durables: Demand a mixed bag comfort on valuation

In Q4FY23, the HSIE CD index revenue (ex-OEM) grew by 6% YoY (+12% four-year CAGR), led by cooling/C&W categories, which grew by 14/11/% YoY (15...

HDFC Securities

Consumer Durables (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Weak Q2 print, expect better H2FY23 delivery

Our appliances coverage universe is expected to deliver revenue YoY/three-year CAGR (ex-Butterfly acquisition) of 6/12% in Q2FY23 (vs 24/11% in...

HDFC Securities

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