Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Global uranium demand is escalating quickly as China doubles its nuclear power plants by 2030 and the U.S. increases its inventory for its energy independence and growing energy needs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-mining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6426:1" rel="noopener">CGN Mining (1164 HK)</a> is China's largest uranium trading company, with partnerships with the Kazakhstan government in some of the largest uranium mines in the world.
</li>
<li>CGN secured an off-take contract with China General Nuclear Power Group at prices that are 50% higher than previous contract.  Approximately 60% of CGN's revenue is from EU and U.S.</li>
</ul>


Global uranium demand is escalating quickly as China doubles its nuclear power plants by 2030 and the U.S. increases its inventory for its energy independence and growing energy needs.

CGN Mining (1164 HK) is China's largest uranium trading company, with partnerships with the Kazakhstan government in some of the largest uranium mines in the world.

CGN secured an off-take contract with China General Nuclear Power Group at prices that are 50% higher than previous contract.  Approximately 60% of CGN's revenue is from EU and U.S.


CGN Mining (1164 HK) - THE NUCLEAR OPTION!

Smartkarma AI, Smartkarma

αSK

Smartkarma AI

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
 <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-mining-co-ltd">CGN Mining</a> is uniquely positioned as the sole overseas uranium resources development and trading platform for its parent, China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN), a major nuclear power operator in the world's fastest-growing nuclear energy market.</li>
 <li>The company is set to benefit from a strong uranium market uptrend, driven by a global nuclear energy renaissance and supply constraints. A lucrative off-take agreement with its parent company at prices reportedly 50% higher than previous contracts is expected to significantly boost revenues.</li>
 <li>Despite a robust long-term outlook, the company faces risks from geopolitical instability in key uranium-producing regions, potential price volatility, and recent financial pressures from managing high-cost inventory, which has impacted margins.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
CGN Mining is uniquely positioned as the sole overseas uranium resources development and trading platform for its parent, China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN), a major nuclear power operator in the world's fastest-growing nuclear energy market.
  The company is set to benefit from a strong uranium market uptrend, driven by a global nuclear energy renaissance and supply constraints. A lucrative off-take agreement with its parent company at prices reportedly 50% higher than previous contracts is expected to significantly boost revenues.
  Despite a robust long-term outlook, the company faces risks from geopolitical instability in key uranium-producing regions, potential price volatility, and recent financial pressures from managing high-cost inventory, which has impacted margins.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We maintain our construction stance on the uranium price, given the strong demand from nuclear power but uncertain uranium supply arising from the commencement of new mines (for details please refer to our sector report “Tight uranium supply continues to support a multi-year upcycle”).</li><li>We revise up our 2026E-27E earnings forecast by 9-11%, after incorporating higher uranium spot price assumptions.</li><li>We revise up our NPV-based TP to HK$3.67 from HK$2.42. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We maintain our construction stance on the uranium price, given the strong demand from nuclear power but uncertain uranium supply arising from the commencement of new mines (for details please refer to our sector report “Tight uranium supply continues to support a multi-year upcycle”).We revise up our 2026E-27E earnings forecast by 9-11%, after incorporating higher uranium spot price assumptions.We revise up our NPV-based TP to HK$3.67 from HK$2.42. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CGN Mining (1164 HK) - Further Upside Driven by Higher Uranium Price

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in April 2022, around six weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I touched on the disruption to the uranium supply chain in <a href="https://skr.ma/hkBPx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Uranium: Fuelling Fears</a>. </li>
<li>The war spurred renewed interest in nuclear energy as a source of domestic power. Uranium prices have tripled since the invasion. </li>
<li>A recent report from the World Nuclear Association forecast a significant step-up in demand for uranium for reactors, together with a material output drop from mines "as deposits are exhausted".</li>
</ul>


Back in April 2022, around six weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I touched on the disruption to the uranium supply chain in Uranium: Fuelling Fears. 
The war spurred renewed interest in nuclear energy as a source of domestic power. Uranium prices have tripled since the invasion. 
A recent report from the World Nuclear Association forecast a significant step-up in demand for uranium for reactors, together with a material output drop from mines "as deposits are exhausted".


Uranium's Shortfall And Nuclear Viability

<ul><li>We forecast CGN Mining to report a net loss of ~RMB68mn in 1H25E, due to (1) a one-off negative margin of the uranium trading business, and (2) a decrease in the spot uranium price in 1H25 that may affect the margin of JVs (mining segment).</li><li>We therefore slash our 2025E earnings forecast by 47% to RMB260mn to reflect the potential weak 1H25E results.</li><li>That said, we regard the impact as one-off, and expect the margin of trading business to return to positive in 2H25E. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We forecast CGN Mining to report a net loss of ~RMB68mn in 1H25E, due to (1) a one-off negative margin of the uranium trading business, and (2) a decrease in the spot uranium price in 1H25 that may affect the margin of JVs (mining segment).We therefore slash our 2025E earnings forecast by 47% to RMB260mn to reflect the potential weak 1H25E results.That said, we regard the impact as one-off, and expect the margin of trading business to return to positive in 2H25E. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CGN Mining (1164 HK) - Potential Loss in 1H25E but Recovery in 2H25E

Hong Kong

CGN Mining Company Ltd., through subsidiaries, operates businesses related to nuclear energy.  The Company supplies nuclear fuel, produces nuclear energy, and constructs plants for renewable energy such as wind power, hydroelectric and solar energy.

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CGN Mining (1164 HK)