Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH Premia bounce higher. Spread curve torsion was as expected. Narrow spreads saw Hs suffer more. Wide spreads saw H outperformance. </li>
<li>The last few weeks I said warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. This week they widened despite big SOUTHBOUND buying.</li>
<li>I expect the right thing to do is hunker down and be flat H/A risk.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia bounce higher. Spread curve torsion was as expected. Narrow spreads saw Hs suffer more. Wide spreads saw H outperformance. 
The last few weeks I said warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. This week they widened despite big SOUTHBOUND buying.
I expect the right thing to do is hunker down and be flat H/A risk.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion was a barbell this week. Narrow and wide spreads see Hs outperform. Middling spreads outperform less.</li>
<li>To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile, though volatility is coming down.</li>
<li>Lots of spreads see the HA premium less than 15%. That is historically tight.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion was a barbell this week. Narrow and wide spreads see Hs outperform. Middling spreads outperform less.
To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile, though volatility is coming down.
Lots of spreads see the HA premium less than 15%. That is historically tight.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Based on prices and turnover from 22 January, there could be one deletion from the index in January. Plus there will be capping and float changes.</li>
<li>There are four stocks that meet the inclusion criteria, but all are non-pure play companies, and the index is already at the limit of 15 non-pure play companies.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$506m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Based on prices and turnover from 22 January, there could be one deletion from the index in January. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
There are four stocks that meet the inclusion criteria, but all are non-pure play companies, and the index is already at the limit of 15 non-pure play companies.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$506m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

China Longyuan Power Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The H share market continues to be the top performing market in Asia in 2024.  The HSCEI has outperformed all Asian markets on a USD basis.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> was rated a BUY at JP Morgan with the company hosting a roadshow to discuss its future growth strategy. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)</a> was initiated as a BUY at CMB International as the company rapidly expands into the ready-to-drink category with teas and sports drinks.
</li>
</ul>


The H share market continues to be the top performing market in Asia in 2024.  The HSCEI has outperformed all Asian markets on a USD basis.


China Longyuan Power (916 HK) was rated a BUY at JP Morgan with the company hosting a roadshow to discuss its future growth strategy. 


China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) was initiated as a BUY at CMB International as the company rapidly expands into the ready-to-drink category with teas and sports drinks.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (December 13)

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Put trading was heavy in the Financial sector this week. ICBC and Bank of China were the main contributors to that with 73% and 63% of their volume in Puts.</li>
<li>ANTA Sports Products had a notable pick up in Call activity this past week as the stock bounces around 3 year lows vs the Hang Seng index (graph at bottom)</li>
<li>Energy and Real Estate sectors might be the best area to look for low vol opportunities.</li>
</ul>


Put trading was heavy in the Financial sector this week. ICBC and Bank of China were the main contributors to that with 73% and 63% of their volume in Puts.
ANTA Sports Products had a notable pick up in Call activity this past week as the stock bounces around 3 year lows vs the Hang Seng index (graph at bottom)
Energy and Real Estate sectors might be the best area to look for low vol opportunities.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Nov 25-29

China

CGN Power Co., Ltd. is a holding company primarily engaged in the generation and sale of nuclear power, as well as the construction, operation, and management of nuclear and non-nuclear clean energy projects. It is China's largest domestic nuclear power operator. The company was founded on March 25, 2014, and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

CGN Power (1816 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

AH Premia were up for the week despite net SB buying. Finally, H/A reflects local market benchmarks. A long trend may now be ending (I'm not clear...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

AH Premia continue to fall on average, but the outperformance is slowing, and the better buying in some sectors (banks) appears to be technically...

Travis Lundy

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week

There could be 1 delete in Jan. There are unlikely to be any adds; one name is close. Estimated 1-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (December 13)

H shares have outperformed all Asian markets this year on a USD basis. Longyuan Power continues to expand its offshore capacity & overseas...

David Mudd

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Nov 25-29

Heavy put trading in Financial sector, with ICBC and Bank of China leading. ANTA Sports sees increase in call activity. Energy and Real Estate...

John Ley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

AH Premia were up for the week despite net SB buying. Finally, H/A reflects local market benchmarks. A long trend may now be ending (I'm not clear...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

AH Premia continue to fall on average, but the outperformance is slowing, and the better buying in some sectors (banks) appears to be technically...

Travis Lundy

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week

There could be 1 delete in Jan. There are unlikely to be any adds; one name is close. Estimated 1-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (December 13)

H shares have outperformed all Asian markets this year on a USD basis. Longyuan Power continues to expand its offshore capacity & overseas...

David Mudd

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Nov 25-29

​Heavy put trading in Financial sector, with ICBC and Bank of China leading. ANTA Sports sees increase in call activity. Energy and Real Estate...

John Ley

Heavy put trading in Financial sector, with ICBC and Bank of China leading. ANTA Sports sees increase in call activity. Energy and Real Estate...