HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The core reason for the success of Chagee lies in the Company finding an effective "shortcut" of business model – “minimalism”, but this model does not imply a high moat.</li>
<li>A likely situation is Chagee's future growth in domestic market would be limited, and the overseas expansion could be unsatisfactory.So, we recommend investors to be cautious about the valuation prospects.</li>
<li>If domestic competition intensifies or overseas expansion falls short of expectations, it is highly likely that the stock price will fall back to the range of US$25-30/share or even lower.</li>
</ul>


The core reason for the success of Chagee lies in the Company finding an effective "shortcut" of business model – “minimalism”, but this model does not imply a high moat.
A likely situation is Chagee's future growth in domestic market would be limited, and the overseas expansion could be unsatisfactory.So, we recommend investors to be cautious about the valuation prospects.
If domestic competition intensifies or overseas expansion falls short of expectations, it is highly likely that the stock price will fall back to the range of US$25-30/share or even lower.


Chagee Holdings - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

A Value Investing Journal, Acid Investments

Acid Investments

A Value Investing Journal

I love stonks and I love rambling. Sometimes, I feel it unfair to subject those around me with the inundation of my thoughts, so I tweet and I spill ink on here. Jokes aside, I love investing and edgy ideas; I hope to become a better investor and this is my journal to that end. I will be sharing value/special situations I come across organically or through other blogs/13F and I hope to provide a variant analytical view to said situations. I hope to receive constructive feedback and let’s grab some of dem benjamins together!

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>As Peter Lynch famously promulgated, one really fun thing about investing is noticing trends, “flowers” that are blooming around you, and finding ways to cash in on that “insight”, the caveat being you have to be right about the trend of course.</li><li>Fad cycles may or may not have legs - see Funko in US and PopMart in HK.</li><li>Not too long ago, I noticed PopMart replacing a local major bank outlet in a central shopping mall near to where I live and heedlessly dismissing it with a mere “wth is this?”, to my chagrin of course as the stock has gone parabolic ever since.</li></ul>

As Peter Lynch famously promulgated, one really fun thing about investing is noticing trends, “flowers” that are blooming around you, and finding ways to cash in on that “insight”, the caveat being you have to be right about the trend of course.Fad cycles may or may not have legs - see Funko in US and PopMart in HK.Not too long ago, I noticed PopMart replacing a local major bank outlet in a central shopping mall near to where I live and heedlessly dismissing it with a mere “wth is this?”, to my chagrin of course as the stock has gone parabolic ever since.

Flagging a Recent IPO - Chagee (CHA) - Orphaned Security Trading at a Large Spread to Peers

<ul>
<li>Chagee may think that US IPO will help it gain greater imagination space/higher valuation. Although the tariff war is “a big surprise”, conservative IPO pricing still secure a good debut.</li>
<li>If Chagee can successfully achieve internationalization and reverse the trend of declining performance, its market value could reach US$10.9 billion. However, Chinese concept stocks would still face valuation discounts.</li>
<li>If same store GMV fails to stabilize, or overseas market penetration is lower-than-expected, or conflict between China and the US escalates, share price would face correction, with valuation falling below Starbucks.</li>
</ul>


Chagee may think that US IPO will help it gain greater imagination space/higher valuation. Although the tariff war is “a big surprise”, conservative IPO pricing still secure a good debut.
If Chagee can successfully achieve internationalization and reverse the trend of declining performance, its market value could reach US$10.9 billion. However, Chinese concept stocks would still face valuation discounts.
If same store GMV fails to stabilize, or overseas market penetration is lower-than-expected, or conflict between China and the US escalates, share price would face correction, with valuation falling below Starbucks.


Chagee Holdings - Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

<ul>
<li>Chagee Holdings (CHA US) priced a full-size deal of 14.7mm shares at $28.00  (high-end of the range) and Opened at $33.75 for a 20.5% gain.</li>
<li>The immediate IPO pipeline is primed and ready to go, however, the current uncertainty in the market due to the everchanging economic winds is forcing companies to bide their time. </li>
<li>Chagee was still able to achieve a desirable outcome by meeting three criteria: Large Anchor orders, Smaller Transaction, Attractive Valuation</li>
</ul>


Chagee Holdings (CHA US) priced a full-size deal of 14.7mm shares at $28.00  (high-end of the range) and Opened at $33.75 for a 20.5% gain.
The immediate IPO pipeline is primed and ready to go, however, the current uncertainty in the market due to the everchanging economic winds is forcing companies to bide their time. 
Chagee was still able to achieve a desirable outcome by meeting three criteria: Large Anchor orders, Smaller Transaction, Attractive Valuation


Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): IPO Valuation Highly Attractive Drawing Strong Interest on Day One

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>  raised around US$411m in its US IPO, after pricing the deal at the top of the range at US$28/share. </li>
<li>Chagee (CG) is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics and added a new peer to compare with  </li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  raised around US$411m in its US IPO, after pricing the deal at the top of the range at US$28/share. 
Chagee (CG) is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics and added a new peer to compare with  


Chagee IPO Trading: Delisting Overhang but Much Cheaper than Peers

United States

Chagee Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a wide range of freshly-made tea drinks. Chagee Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Chagee Holdings (CHA US)

Chagee Holdings - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

Chagee's success is attributed to a minimalist business model, but caution is advised for investors due to limited growth potential/uncertain...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Flagging a Recent IPO - Chagee (CHA) - Orphaned Security Trading at a Large Spread to Peers

As Peter Lynch famously promulgated, one really fun thing about investing is noticing trends, “flowers” that are blooming around you, and finding...

Acid Investments

Chagee Holdings - Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook

Chagee aims for US IPO to boost valuation, but tariff war is a big surprise.Market value may reach $10.8bn if internationalization succeeds, but...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): IPO Valuation Highly Attractive Drawing Strong Interest on Day One

Chagee Holdings IPO sees strong debut despite market uncertainty, meeting criteria for success with large anchor orders, smaller transaction, and...

IPO Boutique

Chagee IPO Trading: Delisting Overhang but Much Cheaper than Peers

Chagee raised around US$411m in its US IPO, after pricing the deal at the top of the range at US$28/share. In this note, we talk about the trading...

Nicholas Tan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chagee Holdings - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

​Chagee's success is attributed to a minimalist business model, but caution is advised for investors due to limited growth potential/uncertain...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Flagging a Recent IPO - Chagee (CHA) - Orphaned Security Trading at a Large Spread to Peers

As Peter Lynch famously promulgated, one really fun thing about investing is noticing trends, “flowers” that are blooming around you, and finding...

Acid Investments

Chagee Holdings - Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook

​Chagee aims for US IPO to boost valuation, but tariff war is a big surprise.Market value may reach $10.8bn if internationalization succeeds, but...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): IPO Valuation Highly Attractive Drawing Strong Interest on Day One

​Chagee Holdings IPO sees strong debut despite market uncertainty, meeting criteria for success with large anchor orders, smaller transaction, and...

IPO Boutique

Chagee IPO Trading: Delisting Overhang but Much Cheaper than Peers

Chagee raised around US$411m in its US IPO, after pricing the deal at the top of the range at US$28/share. In this note, we talk about the trading...

Nicholas Tan

Chagee's success is attributed to a minimalist business model, but caution is advised for investors due to limited growth potential/uncertain...

Chagee aims for US IPO to boost valuation, but tariff war is a big surprise.Market value may reach $10.8bn if internationalization succeeds, but...

Chagee Holdings IPO sees strong debut despite market uncertainty, meeting criteria for success with large anchor orders, smaller transaction, and...