Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We recently visited Guangzhou city, a tier one city in China, on a vacation trip. </li>
<li>One of the malls that we visited happened to have several listed tea chain stores.</li>
<li>We took a snapshot of the shop traffic and noted the difference in locations of various stores. We also ordered tea drinks from two of these stores.</li>
</ul>


We recently visited Guangzhou city, a tier one city in China, on a vacation trip. 
One of the malls that we visited happened to have several listed tea chain stores.
We took a snapshot of the shop traffic and noted the difference in locations of various stores. We also ordered tea drinks from two of these stores.


Chinese Tea Chain: An Impromptu Snapshot Visit at Sunac Mall - Mixue, Chagee, Goodme, ChaPanda

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The spread to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toridoll-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8193:1" rel="noopener">TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP)</a>’s HK$1.58 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tam-jai-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34227:1" rel="noopener">Tam Jai International (2217 HK)</a> has risen to 9.7% ahead of the scheme document's release. </li>
<li>Several readers have asked whether the Tam Jai offer will mirror the Goldlion and Soundwill deal break. The schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.</li>
<li>The scheme's vote risk has undoubtedly increased partly due to the recent 2025 results and deal breaks. This situation warrants a safety-first approach.  </li>
</ul>


The spread to TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP)’s HK$1.58 offer for Tam Jai International (2217 HK) has risen to 9.7% ahead of the scheme document's release. 
Several readers have asked whether the Tam Jai offer will mirror the Goldlion and Soundwill deal break. The schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
The scheme's vote risk has undoubtedly increased partly due to the recent 2025 results and deal breaks. This situation warrants a safety-first approach.  


Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document

A Value Investing Journal, Acid Investments

Acid Investments

A Value Investing Journal

I love stonks and I love rambling. Sometimes, I feel it unfair to subject those around me with the inundation of my thoughts, so I tweet and I spill ink on here. Jokes aside, I love investing and edgy ideas; I hope to become a better investor and this is my journal to that end. I will be sharing value/special situations I come across organically or through other blogs/13F and I hope to provide a variant analytical view to said situations. I hope to receive constructive feedback and let’s grab some of dem benjamins together!

<ul><li>Last week, I wrote a quick article flagging the seemingly absurd valuation discrepancy of Chagee vis-a-vis beverage peers on the HK stock exchange i.e. Mixue and Guming, as well as Luckin Coffee on the OTC markets.</li><li>Chagee currently trades around ~31 (doing extremely poorly on a good day), and at the bottom of its recent trading range; there is no analyst coverage and the firm has yet to report its Q1 25 results so it’s just really stuck in no-man’s land.</li><li>I postulated then that delisting risk was an overhang on Chagee, a Chinese ADR, but lo and behold, it appears that the market has shrugged off a large portion of it for the large cap Chinese tech companies.</li></ul>

Last week, I wrote a quick article flagging the seemingly absurd valuation discrepancy of Chagee vis-a-vis beverage peers on the HK stock exchange i.e. Mixue and Guming, as well as Luckin Coffee on the OTC markets.Chagee currently trades around ~31 (doing extremely poorly on a good day), and at the bottom of its recent trading range; there is no analyst coverage and the firm has yet to report its Q1 25 results so it’s just really stuck in no-man’s land.I postulated then that delisting risk was an overhang on Chagee, a Chinese ADR, but lo and behold, it appears that the market has shrugged off a large portion of it for the large cap Chinese tech companies.

Part 2: What Could Go Wrong at Chagee (CHA)

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The core reason for the success of Chagee lies in the Company finding an effective "shortcut" of business model – “minimalism”, but this model does not imply a high moat.</li>
<li>A likely situation is Chagee's future growth in domestic market would be limited, and the overseas expansion could be unsatisfactory.So, we recommend investors to be cautious about the valuation prospects.</li>
<li>If domestic competition intensifies or overseas expansion falls short of expectations, it is highly likely that the stock price will fall back to the range of US$25-30/share or even lower.</li>
</ul>


The core reason for the success of Chagee lies in the Company finding an effective "shortcut" of business model – “minimalism”, but this model does not imply a high moat.
A likely situation is Chagee's future growth in domestic market would be limited, and the overseas expansion could be unsatisfactory.So, we recommend investors to be cautious about the valuation prospects.
If domestic competition intensifies or overseas expansion falls short of expectations, it is highly likely that the stock price will fall back to the range of US$25-30/share or even lower.


Chagee Holdings - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

<ul>
<li>Like peers, we saw the performance growth slowdown of Auntea Jenny in 2024, mainly due to industry slowdown and intensified competition. Auntea Jenny does not have advantage in lower-tier markets.</li>
<li>Auntea Jenny relies on third-party suppliers, with insufficient cold chain coverage, resulting in weak cost control.It’s difficult to maintain the current profit margin level. Franchisees may be forced to quit.</li>
<li>Valuation of Auntea Jenny should be lower than Guming and MIXUE. Considering the weak fundamentals and uncertain outlook, it is already good if valuation could be similar to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Baicha Baidao</a>.</li>
</ul>


Like peers, we saw the performance growth slowdown of Auntea Jenny in 2024, mainly due to industry slowdown and intensified competition. Auntea Jenny does not have advantage in lower-tier markets.
Auntea Jenny relies on third-party suppliers, with insufficient cold chain coverage, resulting in weak cost control.It’s difficult to maintain the current profit margin level. Franchisees may be forced to quit.
Valuation of Auntea Jenny should be lower than Guming and MIXUE. Considering the weak fundamentals and uncertain outlook, it is already good if valuation could be similar to Baicha Baidao.


Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

United States

Chagee Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a wide range of freshly-made tea drinks. Chagee Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
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Chagee Holdings (CHA US)

Chinese Tea Chain: An Impromptu Snapshot Visit at Sunac Mall - Mixue, Chagee, Goodme, ChaPanda

We recently visited stores of 4 listed tea chains in a mall, noting the differentiation of the stores in terms of their positioning.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document

Arbs cannot afford another HK deal break on their books. Recent events have undoubtedly increased the scheme's vote risk, warranting a safety-first...

Arun George

Part 2: What Could Go Wrong at Chagee (CHA)

Chagee currently trades around ~31 (doing extremely poorly on a good day), and at the bottom of its recent trading range; there is no analyst...

Acid Investments

Chagee Holdings - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

Chagee's success is attributed to a minimalist business model, but caution is advised for investors due to limited growth potential/uncertain...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

The sharp rise of Auntea Jenny on its IPO debut reflects investors' confidence in its growth potential in China's lower-tier markets. But high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chinese Tea Chain: An Impromptu Snapshot Visit at Sunac Mall - Mixue, Chagee, Goodme, ChaPanda

We recently visited stores of 4 listed tea chains in a mall, noting the differentiation of the stores in terms of their positioning.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document

Arbs cannot afford another HK deal break on their books. Recent events have undoubtedly increased the scheme's vote risk, warranting a safety-first...

Arun George

Part 2: What Could Go Wrong at Chagee (CHA)

Chagee currently trades around ~31 (doing extremely poorly on a good day), and at the bottom of its recent trading range; there is no analyst...

Acid Investments

Chagee Holdings - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

​Chagee's success is attributed to a minimalist business model, but caution is advised for investors due to limited growth potential/uncertain...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

The sharp rise of Auntea Jenny on its IPO debut reflects investors' confidence in its growth potential in China's lower-tier markets. But high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chagee's success is attributed to a minimalist business model, but caution is advised for investors due to limited growth potential/uncertain...