IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CapVest’s binding offer is A$8.25 via a scheme or A$8.10 via an off-market takeover. The scheme offer is a 5.8% premium to its previous scheme offer of A$7.80 per share. </li>
<li>Rival bidder BGH lobbed a revised non-binding offer of A$8.10 per share after market close on 10 March. The Board will consider any further improved competing offer.  </li>
<li>BGH (19.99% stake) previously stated that it will vote against a CapVest scheme and will not accept any takeover offer. Another round of bidding is a possibility. </li>
</ul>


CapVest’s binding offer is A$8.25 via a scheme or A$8.10 via an off-market takeover. The scheme offer is a 5.8% premium to its previous scheme offer of A$7.80 per share. 
Rival bidder BGH lobbed a revised non-binding offer of A$8.10 per share after market close on 10 March. The Board will consider any further improved competing offer.  
BGH (19.99% stake) previously stated that it will vote against a CapVest scheme and will not accept any takeover offer. Another round of bidding is a possibility. 


CapVest Inches past BGH in a Heated Takeover Battle for Virtus

<ul>
<li>BGH’s revised scheme offer will pay $7.65 per <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virtus-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14776:1" rel="noopener">Virtus Health (VRT AU)</a> share, which is 0.7% and 2.0% higher than CapVest’s rival scheme (A$7.60) and off-market takeover offer (A$7.50), respectively.</li>
<li>BGH (19.99% stake) will vote against the CapVest scheme and will not accept any takeover offer from CapVest. Consequently, CapVest’s best option is an improved off-market takeover bid.</li>
<li>As CapVest's offer is marginally below BGH's revised offer, CapVest retains the potential to lob an improved offer, in our view.</li>
</ul>


BGH’s revised scheme offer will pay $7.65 per Virtus Health (VRT AU) share, which is 0.7% and 2.0% higher than CapVest’s rival scheme (A$7.60) and off-market takeover offer (A$7.50), respectively.
BGH (19.99% stake) will vote against the CapVest scheme and will not accept any takeover offer from CapVest. Consequently, CapVest’s best option is an improved off-market takeover bid.
As CapVest's offer is marginally below BGH's revised offer, CapVest retains the potential to lob an improved offer, in our view.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<div>
<p>Back on the 29 July, trading and wealth management software provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iress-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15342:1" rel="noopener">Iress Ltd (IRE AU)</a> <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02400486-3A571606?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it had received a confidential, unsolicited, non-binding, and indicative proposal from Swedish PE outfit EQT Fund Management via a Scheme of Arrangement at a price range of between A$15.30 and A$15.50 cash per share. EQT had previously fielded an Offer of A$14.80/share on the 18 June.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Iress' board unanimously concluded that the 4% bump - if using the mid-price of the price range - attached to the latest Proposal was<em> "conditional and did not represent compelling value for Iress shareholders</em>". </p>
<p>In <em><a href="https://skr.ma/2sAsB" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Iress (ASX AU) Bats Away EQT - For Now</a></em>, I suggested getting involved around $14.30/share.</p>
<p>Iress' board has now backed a revised Offer from EQT - but at <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02405676-3A572494?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$15.91/share</a>, just 3.3% above the previous proposal.</p>
<p>Due diligence, on an exclusive basis, has been granted. </p>
<p>This looks done, but remains non-binding. Plus there is the question mark over why the board was quick to agree to terms such that an additional ~3% becomes "compelling". </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
</div>


Back on the 29 July, trading and wealth management software provider Iress Ltd (IRE AU) announced it had received a confidential, unsolicited, non-binding, and indicative proposal from Swedish PE outfit EQT Fund Management via a Scheme of Arrangement at a price range of between A$15.30 and A$15.50 cash per share. EQT had previously fielded an Offer of A$14.80/share on the 18 June.


Iress' board unanimously concluded that the 4% bump - if using the mid-price of the price range - attached to the latest Proposal was "conditional and did not represent compelling value for Iress shareholders". 
In Iress (ASX AU) Bats Away EQT - For Now, I suggested getting involved around $14.30/share.
Iress' board has now backed a revised Offer from EQT - but at $15.91/share, just 3.3% above the previous proposal.
Due diligence, on an exclusive basis, has been granted. 
This looks done, but remains non-binding. Plus there is the question mark over why the board was quick to agree to terms such that an additional ~3% becomes "compelling". 


As always, more below the fold.


Iress (IRE AU) Accepts EQT's Latest Proposal

<p>The bidding for companies in Australia's technology sector continues.</p>
<p>Trading and wealth management software provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iress-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15342:1" rel="noopener">Iress Ltd (IRE AU)</a> <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02400486-3A571606?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> this morning it had received a confidential, unsolicited, non-binding, and indicative proposal from Swedish PE outfit EQT Fund Management via a Scheme of Arrangement at a price range of between A$15.30 and A$15.50 cash per share.</p>
<p>EQT had previously fielded an Offer of A$14.80/share on the 18 June.</p>
<p>Iress' board unanimously concluded that the Proposal was "<em>conditional and did not represent compelling value for Iress shareholders</em>". But the board was:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>prepared to provide it with access to limited non-public information so EQT can develop a proposal that is capable of being recommended to shareholders.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Iress closed up 15% today, but still 7% below the mid-point of the Indicative Offer price range.</p>
<div>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
</div>

The bidding for companies in Australia's technology sector continues.
Trading and wealth management software provider Iress Ltd (IRE AU) announced this morning it had received a confidential, unsolicited, non-binding, and indicative proposal from Swedish PE outfit EQT Fund Management via a Scheme of Arrangement at a price range of between A$15.30 and A$15.50 cash per share.
EQT had previously fielded an Offer of A$14.80/share on the 18 June.
Iress' board unanimously concluded that the Proposal was "conditional and did not represent compelling value for Iress shareholders". But the board was:

prepared to provide it with access to limited non-public information so EQT can develop a proposal that is capable of being recommended to shareholders.

Iress closed up 15% today, but still 7% below the mid-point of the Indicative Offer price range.

As always, more below the fold.


Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

<p>On 16 November 2020, Australia-based Childcare company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/think-childcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18899:1" rel="noopener">Think Childcare (TNK AU)</a> received a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02308970-3A555430?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Non-binding Indicative Proposal</a> at an Offer Price of A$1.35/share from the PE arm of <a href="https://www.alceon.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alceon Group</a> which is an Australian independent multi-strategy alternative investments firm. </p><p>In my insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/think-childcare-tnk-au-takeover-proposal-from-alceon-group-seems-light" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45429" rel="noopener">Think Childcare (TNK AU) : Takeover Proposal From Alceon Group Seems Light</a>, I concluded that this Offer Price of A$1.35 seemed light on a growth-adjusted basis and when compared against the valuations of other local and global peers.  I mentioned the possibility of bumpitrage but low liquidity made it iffy and I was not bullish on the trade.</p><p>A week later, on 23rd Nov 2020, TNK received a <em><strong><a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02311977-3A556064?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">competitive bid</a></strong></em> at an Offer Price of A$1.75/share from Busy Bees Early Learning Australia Pty Ltd which is the Australian arm of multinational child care firm Busy Bees Nursery Group which is backed by Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP) and Temasek.</p><p><em>I got bullish</em> and discussed this competitive situation in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/think-childcare-tnk-au-competitive-bid-by-busy-bees" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45609" rel="noopener">Think Childcare (TNK AU): Competitive Bid by Busy Bees</a> pointing out the implications of Alceon's matching right and since TNK's share price of A$1.60 translated to a <em>very</em> attractive spread given the high likelihood of a further overbid, I was Bullish on the stock.</p><blockquote><p><strong>THE TRADE: I would be LONG now.</strong> I expect TNK shareholders to receive at least A$1.75/share at the end of this competitive situation and I also expect TNK to trade much closer to terms once there is more clarity on Alceon's stance in the next 5 days. <strong>(<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/think-childcare-tnk-au-competitive-bid-by-busy-bees" target="_blank" rel="noopener">written 23 Nov 2020</a>)</strong></p></blockquote><p>Although initially Alceon let their matching right lapse, a month later, on 24th December 2020, they launched a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02326507-3A558868?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revised non-binding and indicative proposal</a> matching that of Busy Bees' non-binding bid (A$1.75/share) and also announced they had acquired a relevant interest of 19.23% in TNK.  </p><p>Today, Busy Bees <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02332137-3A559736?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revised their competitive bid</a> to A$2.10/share -  a 20% bump from the previous bid level. </p><p>TNK shares last closed at A$2.00. </p><div><p><em>More below the fold. </em></p></div><hr><div><div><div class="content-remarks"><p>For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-australia-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30118" rel="noopener">Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-m-a-australia-foreign-investment-reforms" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40210" rel="noopener">Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms</a> </p></div></div></div>

On 16 November 2020, Australia-based Childcare company Think Childcare (TNK AU) received a Non-binding Indicative Proposal at an Offer Price of A$1.35/share from the PE arm of Alceon Group which is an Australian independent multi-strategy alternative investments firm. In my insight Think Childcare (TNK AU) : Takeover Proposal From Alceon Group Seems Light, I concluded that this Offer Price of A$1.35 seemed light on a growth-adjusted basis and when compared against the valuations of other local and global peers.  I mentioned the possibility of bumpitrage but low liquidity made it iffy and I was not bullish on the trade.A week later, on 23rd Nov 2020, TNK received a competitive bid at an Offer Price of A$1.75/share from Busy Bees Early Learning Australia Pty Ltd which is the Australian arm of multinational child care firm Busy Bees Nursery Group which is backed by Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP) and Temasek.I got bullish and discussed this competitive situation in Think Childcare (TNK AU): Competitive Bid by Busy Bees pointing out the implications of Alceon's matching right and since TNK's share price of A$1.60 translated to a very attractive spread given the high likelihood of a further overbid, I was Bullish on the stock.THE TRADE: I would be LONG now. I expect TNK shareholders to receive at least A$1.75/share at the end of this competitive situation and I also expect TNK to trade much closer to terms once there is more clarity on Alceon's stance in the next 5 days. (written 23 Nov 2020)Although initially Alceon let their matching right lapse, a month later, on 24th December 2020, they launched a revised non-binding and indicative proposal matching that of Busy Bees' non-binding bid (A$1.75/share) and also announced they had acquired a relevant interest of 19.23% in TNK.  Today, Busy Bees revised their competitive bid to A$2.10/share -  a 20% bump from the previous bid level. TNK shares last closed at A$2.00. More below the fold. For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019 and Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms 

Think Childcare (TNK AU): Bigger Bid by Busy Bees

Australia

Challenger Limited is an investment management firm  The Company offers annuities and other retirement income products as well as manages assets for domestic and international clients.

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Challenger Ltd (CGF AU)

CapVest Inches past BGH in a Heated Takeover Battle for Virtus

CapVest’s binding offer is A$8.25 via a scheme or A$8.10 via an off-market takeover. Rival bidder BGH lobbed an offer of A$8.10 on 10 March....

Arun George

BGH’s Revised Higher Offer for Virtus

BGH has returned with a revised offer of $7.65 per share, which is 7.7% higher than BGH’s original offer of A$7.10. CapVest’s (rival suitor) best...

Arun George

Iress (IRE AU) Accepts EQT's Latest Proposal

Currently trading at a 5.4%/13.4% gross/annualised spread, assuming five months from hereon to complete. That looks like a reasonable price level...

David Blennerhassett

Iress (ASX AU) Bats Away EQT - For Now

I would be picking Iress up on any weakness. This space is attracting a lot of interested parties. However, this is still a non-binding situation.

David Blennerhassett

Think Childcare (TNK AU): Bigger Bid by Busy Bees

Investors in Think Childcare have seen a bump, a match, and now another 20% bump. Alceon is sitting on 20% gains and can match, beat, or sell. It's...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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