Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The iron ore price has breached the 95 USD/ton level thrice in the last 4 years for very brief periods, after which it has bounced and remained range-bound.</li>
<li>The jury is still out on the quantum of China's stimulus and lackluster property data, but positive indicators like the PMI beating at 50.1 (vs. expectations of 49.9) were encouraging. </li>
<li>We provide updates for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kumba-iron-ore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25094:1" rel="noopener">Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a>, which just released their results. </li>
</ul>


The iron ore price has breached the 95 USD/ton level thrice in the last 4 years for very brief periods, after which it has bounced and remained range-bound.
The jury is still out on the quantum of China's stimulus and lackluster property data, but positive indicators like the PMI beating at 50.1 (vs. expectations of 49.9) were encouraging. 
We provide updates for Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ) and Champion Iron (CIA AU), which just released their results. 


Iron Ore Tracker (11-Nov-2024): The China Stalemate, But 100 USD/Ton Level Maintained

<ul>
<li>We analyze <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Champion Iron's (CIA AU)</a> Q2 2025 results. Forest fires, shutdowns, and logistical issues impacted the quarter, with revenues/profits down 9%/69% YoY.</li>
<li>The company reduced its stockpile of iron ore, but the cash pile still declined 100 mn CAD due to significant capex in the flotation plant and dividend payment. </li>
<li>The consensus (and we) will have to significantly reduce earnings as logistics continues to impact growth. </li>
</ul>


We analyze Champion Iron's (CIA AU) Q2 2025 results. Forest fires, shutdowns, and logistical issues impacted the quarter, with revenues/profits down 9%/69% YoY.
The company reduced its stockpile of iron ore, but the cash pile still declined 100 mn CAD due to significant capex in the flotation plant and dividend payment. 
The consensus (and we) will have to significantly reduce earnings as logistics continues to impact growth. 


Champion Iron (CIA AU) Q2 2025: Too Many Execution Glitches

<ul>
<li>After a brief spell of iron ore prices rising to 108 USD/ton, prices have retraced to 102 USD/ton (-3% WoW) but remain broadly in the 95-130 USD/ton band.</li>
<li>Investors were disappointed with China's announced stimulus measures, citing their vagueness and lack of a specific timetable, resulting in the positive sentiment waning over the last two weeks.</li>
<li>We update investors on Vale's (VALE US) recent <a href="https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/53207d1c-63b4-48f1-96b7-19869fae19fe/f3e7e25d-31a1-8e6d-107d-e05c2eb8e08b?origin=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal </a>to the government to settle the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariana_dam_disaster" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mariana Dam</a> disaster.</li>
</ul>


After a brief spell of iron ore prices rising to 108 USD/ton, prices have retraced to 102 USD/ton (-3% WoW) but remain broadly in the 95-130 USD/ton band.
Investors were disappointed with China's announced stimulus measures, citing their vagueness and lack of a specific timetable, resulting in the positive sentiment waning over the last two weeks.
We update investors on Vale's (VALE US) recent proposal to the government to settle the Mariana Dam disaster.


Iron Ore Tracker (21-Oct-2024): China Positive Sentiment Waning

<ul>
<li>Iron underperformed the commodity complex, falling 1.2% WoW, vs the average complex performance of 3% WoW. </li>
<li>PBOC rate cuts have yet to spur borrowing significantly. Despite the seasonal uptick, loan growth has trended negatively.  </li>
<li>We remain cautious till China shows any sign of a pick-up in demand. Indicators like mill margins and property/auto demand continue to be uninspiring. </li>
</ul>


Iron underperformed the commodity complex, falling 1.2% WoW, vs the average complex performance of 3% WoW. 
PBOC rate cuts have yet to spur borrowing significantly. Despite the seasonal uptick, loan growth has trended negatively.  
We remain cautious till China shows any sign of a pick-up in demand. Indicators like mill margins and property/auto demand continue to be uninspiring. 


Iron Ore Tracker (23-Sep-2024): Liquidity in China Provides Relief, Still Bearish Short-Term

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 9th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CSL, Qbe Insurance, Macquarie, Agl Energy, Telstra.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 9th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CSL, Qbe Insurance, Macquarie, Agl Energy, Telstra.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 9th): CSL, Qbe Insurance, Macquarie, Agl Energy, Telstra

Australia

champion Iron Limited is a exploration company. The Company acquires, explores and develops properties for iron ore deposits.

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Champion Iron (CIA AU)

Iron Ore Tracker (11-Nov-2024): The China Stalemate, But 100 USD/Ton Level Maintained

Can the PMI beat of 50.1 (vs expectations 49.9) catalyse a recovery in the iron ore prices ? We eagerly look for the print on TSF next week which...

Sameer Taneja