Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a> reported an inline Q1 FY25, with revenue/earnings up 57%/308% YoY owing to a 34% YoY volume increase and better pricing. </li>
<li>The company reiterated its guidance for 15 million tons of production and equivalent sales. It is working on improving logistics after forest fires and other port/rail issues. </li>
<li>The stock trades at 8.5x PE and a 6% dividend yield for FY25e ( assuming iron ore prices of USD 108/ton with a 15 USD/ton premium on 65% Fe). </li>
</ul>



Champion Iron (CIA AU) reported an inline Q1 FY25, with revenue/earnings up 57%/308% YoY owing to a 34% YoY volume increase and better pricing. 
The company reiterated its guidance for 15 million tons of production and equivalent sales. It is working on improving logistics after forest fires and other port/rail issues. 
The stock trades at 8.5x PE and a 6% dividend yield for FY25e ( assuming iron ore prices of USD 108/ton with a 15 USD/ton premium on 65% Fe). 


Champion Iron Q1 2025: Inline, High-Grade Iron Ore on Critical Minerals List in Canada

<ul>
<li>Iron ore bounced from the 100 USD/ton level and has maintained a rangebound level between 95 and 130 USD/ton for the last three years.</li>
<li>Inventories at the ports continued to increase, surpassing 150 million tons, representing about 38 days of inventory (normalized levels around 35 days). </li>
<li>After Capital Group's recent selldown<a href="https://www.mining.com/web/fortescue-investor-seeks-to-sell-1-3-billion-worth-of-shares/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">, </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> looks attractive (with a trailing dividend yield of 11% and 6.5x PE) and could be worth exploring. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore bounced from the 100 USD/ton level and has maintained a rangebound level between 95 and 130 USD/ton for the last three years.
Inventories at the ports continued to increase, surpassing 150 million tons, representing about 38 days of inventory (normalized levels around 35 days). 
After Capital Group's recent selldown, Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) looks attractive (with a trailing dividend yield of 11% and 6.5x PE) and could be worth exploring. 


Iron Ore Tracker (07-Aug-2024): Port Arrivals High, Inventory Piles up at 35 Ports

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Commodities

<ul><li>Champion Iron Ore, also known as Champ, is a premium producer in the iron ore sector with potential for increased attention over time.</li><li>Adriatic Metals is ramping up production at their Vares silver-zinc polymetallic deposit in Bosnia, but facing challenges with cash flow and development rates.</li><li>Cash flow issues, teething problems with mining services, and logistical challenges are hindering Adriatic's ramp up, but they are on track to reach their nameplate by Q4.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Champion Iron Ore, also known as Champ, is a premium producer in the iron ore sector with potential for increased attention over time.Adriatic Metals is ramping up production at their Vares silver-zinc polymetallic deposit in Bosnia, but facing challenges with cash flow and development rates.Cash flow issues, teething problems with mining services, and logistical challenges are hindering Adriatic's ramp up, but they are on track to reach their nameplate by Q4.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul>
<li>Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher cost curve at around 100 USD/ton.</li>
<li>Last week, quarterly operational updates released were for <a href="https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/53207d1c-63b4-48f1-96b7-19869fae19fe/7d5a19cc-4fa7-7ce9-a947-44dcefea9f27?origin=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vale</a>, <a href="https://www.bhp.com/-/media/documents/media/reports-and-presentations/2024/240717_bhpoperationalreviewfortheyearended30june2024.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BHP</a>, <a href="https://www.angloamericankumba.com/~/media/Files/A/Anglo-American-Group-v5/Kumba/press-releases/2024/q2-2024-production-and-sales-report.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kumba</a>, and <a href="https://www.mtgibsoniron.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/MGX-June-Quarter-2024-Activities-Report-Final.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mount Gibson.</a> Except for BHP, all companies were disappointed due to provisional pricing impacts and mix changes.</li>
<li>Read our recent production preview <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fortescue-metals-group-fmg-au-high-dividend-yield-of-9-what-to-expect-from-q4-fy24" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:151567" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): High Dividend Yield of 9%, What to Expect From Q4 FY24,</a> to be declared on the 25th of July. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher cost curve at around 100 USD/ton.
Last week, quarterly operational updates released were for Vale, BHP, Kumba, and Mount Gibson. Except for BHP, all companies were disappointed due to provisional pricing impacts and mix changes.
Read our recent production preview Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): High Dividend Yield of 9%, What to Expect From Q4 FY24, to be declared on the 25th of July. 


Iron Ore Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Doing The Dance Between 95-130 USD/Ton, Use Iron Condors

<ul>
<li>Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher end of the cost curve at around 100 USD/ton. </li>
<li>Coking coal prices are expected to bounce due to the Anglo incident, and we believe the 65-62 spread will benefit, moving out of its mid-teens band. </li>
<li>We like iron condors (set up details in the insight) and high-grade ore producers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher end of the cost curve at around 100 USD/ton. 
Coking coal prices are expected to bounce due to the Anglo incident, and we believe the 65-62 spread will benefit, moving out of its mid-teens band. 
We like iron condors (set up details in the insight) and high-grade ore producers Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), Vale (VALE US).


Iron Ore Tracker July 4th, 2024: Prices Rangebound, Iron Condors Anyone?

Australia

champion Iron Limited is a exploration company. The Company acquires, explores and develops properties for iron ore deposits.

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Champion Iron (CIA AU)

Champion Iron Q1 2025: Inline, High-Grade Iron Ore on Critical Minerals List in Canada

We summarize the Q1 FY25 results for Champion Iron (CIA AU). Trading at 8.5x FY25e PE with a 6% yield, and high-grade ore placed on Canadas...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (07-Aug-2024): Port Arrivals High, Inventory Piles up at 35 Ports

With iron ore continuing to remain rangebound between 95-130 USD/ton for the last 3 years (with minor overshoots), we summarize actionable ideas in...

Sameer Taneja

Miners at Peak Risk/Reward

Champion Iron Ore is a premium iron ore producer gaining attention, while Adriatic Metals faces challenges in ramping up production at their Vares...

Money of Mine

Iron Ore Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Doing The Dance Between 95-130 USD/Ton, Use Iron Condors

With iron ore continuing to remain rangebound between 95-130 USD/ton for the last 3 years (with minor overshoots), we summarize actionable ideas in...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker July 4th, 2024: Prices Rangebound, Iron Condors Anyone?

With the latest 10% bounce in iron ore prices and coking coal prices, we provide actionable ideas to play iron ore in equities/options etc.

Sameer Taneja

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