Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Chandra Asri Petrochemical / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 4 changes each for the IDX30 Index and the LQ45 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-cbp-sukses-makmur-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17651:1" rel="noopener">Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-battery-materials-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36864:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indah-kiat-pulp-paper-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20064:1" rel="noopener">Indah Kiat Pulp &amp; Paper (INKP IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pertamina-geothermal-energy-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36725:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 changes each for the IDX30 Index and the LQ45 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
The largest passive inflows are expected in Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ), Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ), Indah Kiat Pulp &amp; Paper (INKP IJ) and Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ). 
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Four Changes for Each Index

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. </li>
<li>GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the company's valuation.</li>
</ul>


GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. 
GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.
In this note, we will talk about the company's valuation.


GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waskita-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15739:1" rel="noopener">Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harum-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1604:1" rel="noopener">Harum Energy (HRUM IJ)</a> as higher probability inclusions in the LQ45 Index.</li>
<li>Given the focus is on liquidity, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-serpong-damai-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15498:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> as higher probability deletion candidates.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
We see Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ), BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) and Harum Energy (HRUM IJ) as higher probability inclusions in the LQ45 Index.
Given the focus is on liquidity, we see Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ), Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ) and AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) as higher probability deletion candidates.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) has announced a change in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jakarta-stock-exchange-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22914:1" rel="noopener">Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX)</a> calculation methodology to make it a free float market cap weighted index from a full market cap weighted index. Additionally, there will be a 9% capping on the weight of a single stock in the index.The change will take place in a phased manner in 3 stages: at the beginning of October 2020, January 2021 and April 2021.The biggest beneficiaries of the change are expected to be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-indonesi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10889:1" rel="noopener">Charoen Pokphand Indonesi (CPIN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-indonesia-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11161:1" rel="noopener">Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sarana-menara-nusantara-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6848:1" rel="noopener">Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener">Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a>.The biggest falls in index weight are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1" rel="noopener">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:231:1" rel="noopener">Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-permata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:728:1" rel="noopener">Bank Permata (BNLI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-brisyariah-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26981:1" rel="noopener">Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayan-resources-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8039:1" rel="noopener">Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ)</a>.Among the upweights, there could be over 2 days of ADV to trade on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-indonesi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10889:1" rel="noopener">Charoen Pokphand Indonesi (CPIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-indonesia-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11161:1" rel="noopener">Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)</a> while there could be over 1 day of ADV to trade on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener">Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sarana-menara-nusantara-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6848:1" rel="noopener">Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1" rel="noopener">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:231:1" rel="noopener">Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)</a> would be the most impacted stocks with potential outflows.

The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) has announced a change in the Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX) calculation methodology to make it a free float market cap weighted index from a full market cap weighted index. Additionally, there will be a 9% capping on the weight of a single stock in the index.The change will take place in a phased manner in 3 stages: at the beginning of October 2020, January 2021 and April 2021.The biggest beneficiaries of the change are expected to be Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ), Astra International (ASII IJ), Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ), Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ), Charoen Pokphand Indonesi (CPIN IJ), Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ), Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ), Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ) and Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ).The biggest falls in index weight are expected on Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ), Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ), Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ), Bank Permata (BNLI IJ), Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ), Emtek (EMTK IJ), Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ) and Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ).Among the upweights, there could be over 2 days of ADV to trade on Charoen Pokphand Indonesi (CPIN IJ) and Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ) while there could be over 1 day of ADV to trade on Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ), Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ), Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ) and Astra International (ASII IJ).HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ), Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ) and Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ) would be the most impacted stocks with potential outflows.

Jakarta Composite Index: Impact of Change to Capped Free Float Weighting

Amman Mineral Internasional / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
The largest passive inflows are expected in Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ), Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) and Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ). 
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

Indonesia

PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk (CAP) is an integrated petrochemical producer. The Company produces ethylene, propylene, mixed C4, pyrolysis gasoline, polyethylene, polypropylene, and styrene monomer.  CAP serves both the domestic downstream industries and regional export markets in Indonesia.

Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: Four Changes for Each Index

There are 4 changes each for the IDX30 and LQ45. Implementation is in 4 trading days. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on a lot of stocks. Most...

Brian Freitas

GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. In this note, we talk about its...

Sumeet Singh

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

Changes to the LQ45 Index will be announced soon & become effective after the close on 31 Jan. We see three potential changes. The adds outperform...

Brian Freitas

Jakarta Composite Index: Impact of Change to Capped Free Float Weighting

The JCI will change from a full market cap weighted index to a capped free float mkt cap weighted index. Beneficiaries are TLKM, BBRI, ASII, BMRI &...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

The Indonesian indices rebalance at the close today and there will be multiple days of volume going through on some stocks.

Brian Freitas

IDX30/​​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Four Changes for Each Index

There are 4 changes each for the IDX30 and LQ45. Implementation is in 4 trading days. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on a lot of stocks. Most...

Brian Freitas

GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. In this note, we talk about its...

Sumeet Singh

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

Changes to the LQ45 Index will be announced soon & become effective after the close on 31 Jan. We see three potential changes. The adds outperform...

Brian Freitas

Jakarta Composite Index: Impact of Change to Capped Free Float Weighting

The JCI will change from a full market cap weighted index to a capped free float mkt cap weighted index. Beneficiaries are TLKM, BBRI, ASII, BMRI &...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

The Indonesian indices rebalance at the close today and there will be multiple days of volume going through on some stocks.

Brian Freitas

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: Four Changes for Each Index

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks