HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The recent rally in healthcare is mainly driven by medical device sector. But investors are advised to exit in time before the truth is revealed.</li>
<li>For pharmaceutical sector, it may not be as lucky as medical device sector.Even if it has followed the positive momentum of medical device sector, stock price would diverge after that.</li>
<li>We won't take any chances on CXO due to geographical conflicts and overseas policy risks, with "no reversal signal". We updated our top picks in various sectors. </li>
</ul>


The recent rally in healthcare is mainly driven by medical device sector. But investors are advised to exit in time before the truth is revealed.
For pharmaceutical sector, it may not be as lucky as medical device sector.Even if it has followed the positive momentum of medical device sector, stock price would diverge after that.
We won't take any chances on CXO due to geographical conflicts and overseas policy risks, with "no reversal signal". We updated our top picks in various sectors. 


About the Recent Rebound in China Healthcare and the Future Direction (Updated Top Picks)

<ul>
<li>We still haven’t seen the “industry clearing”. When an industry no longer has entry barriers/first mover advantage, it will inevitably bring about the collapse of expectations for the future.</li>
<li>If the total retail sales of consumer goods do not maintain well, the probability of endogenous growth problems is high, which will be reflected in the decline of companies’ valuation.</li>
<li>It’s more reasonable for the share prices of those companies that have entered VBP to rise. For those that haven’t been included in VBP, the risk is much higher.</li>
</ul>


We still haven’t seen the “industry clearing”. When an industry no longer has entry barriers/first mover advantage, it will inevitably bring about the collapse of expectations for the future.
If the total retail sales of consumer goods do not maintain well, the probability of endogenous growth problems is high, which will be reflected in the decline of companies’ valuation.
It’s more reasonable for the share prices of those companies that have entered VBP to rise. For those that haven’t been included in VBP, the risk is much higher.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.16) - Industry Clearing, Bottom of Healthcare Sector, Endogenous Growth

<ul>
<li>NHSA will set aside a certain market to provide space for innovative medical devices/consumables to explore the market in addition to centralized procurement. However, we tend to be cautiously optimistic.</li>
<li>We think it is important to clarify for investors what constitutes "commercialization success" – That is to generate revenue at scale and stable profitability through the sale of drugs.</li>
<li>All the products that covered by VBP begin to lose logic. Don't be fooled by those positive interpretations. We are bearish on the sectors with downward logic in long cycle. </li>
</ul>


NHSA will set aside a certain market to provide space for innovative medical devices/consumables to explore the market in addition to centralized procurement. However, we tend to be cautiously optimistic.
We think it is important to clarify for investors what constitutes "commercialization success" – That is to generate revenue at scale and stable profitability through the sale of drugs.
All the products that covered by VBP begin to lose logic. Don't be fooled by those positive interpretations. We are bearish on the sectors with downward logic in long cycle. 


China Healthcare Weekly(Sep9)-Innovative Device Policy,Commercial Success Definition,Don't Be Fooled

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Allocations in Biotechnology stocks have taken a severe drop among active China A-Share investors.  </li>
<li>From a high of 4% in July of 2020, average fund weights have fallen to just 1.14% and average underweights have plunged towards their lowest level on record.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a> has led the declines, as sentiment towards the China A-Share Biotechnology sector looks fragile.</li>
</ul>


Allocations in Biotechnology stocks have taken a severe drop among active China A-Share investors.  
From a high of 4% in July of 2020, average fund weights have fallen to just 1.14% and average underweights have plunged towards their lowest level on record.

Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) has led the declines, as sentiment towards the China A-Share Biotechnology sector looks fragile.


<ul>
<li>Last week, Guangdong province issued a volume-based purchase (VBP) document, among which recombinant human growth hormone (rhGH) and blood products are included, causing widespread concern in the market.</li>
<li>The survival problem of listed biotech companies is becoming more urgent. In primary market, investment banks have started recommending CEOs of unlisted biotech companies to “reconsider” their IPO plans.</li>
<li>In terms of internationalization, companies with three characteristics are likely to become international pharmaceutical enterprises in 10 years.</li>
</ul>


Last week, Guangdong province issued a volume-based purchase (VBP) document, among which recombinant human growth hormone (rhGH) and blood products are included, causing widespread concern in the market.
The survival problem of listed biotech companies is becoming more urgent. In primary market, investment banks have started recommending CEOs of unlisted biotech companies to “reconsider” their IPO plans.
In terms of internationalization, companies with three characteristics are likely to become international pharmaceutical enterprises in 10 years.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.21)-Growth Hormone VBP,Biotech Survival,Internationalization Conditions

China

Changchun High & New Technology Industry (Group) Inc. is an investment holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company manufactures biopharmaceuticals and Chinese traditional medicines, constructs infrastructure facilities, manufactures electrolytic condensers, and develops and manages real estate.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Changchun High & New Tech A (000661 CH)

About the Recent Rebound in China Healthcare and the Future Direction (Updated Top Picks)

There's catalyst in medical device sector, leading to the recent rebound, but investors should exit in time before the truth is revealed. After the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.16) - Industry Clearing, Bottom of Healthcare Sector, Endogenous Growth

We still haven’t seen the “industry clearing” of healthcare. The decline of total retail sales of consumer goods will lead to endogenous growth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly(Sep9)-Innovative Device Policy,Commercial Success Definition,Don't Be Fooled

We recommend cautiously optimistic about new innovative device policy. It's important to clarify what constitutes "commercialization success". All...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China A-Shares: Biotechnology Exit

Allocations in Biotechnology stocks have taken a severe drop among active China A-Share investors. From a high of 4% in July of 2020, average fund...

Steven Holden

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.21)-Growth Hormone VBP,Biotech Survival,Internationalization Conditions

We analyzed the impact of growth hormone/blood products VBP; the "reconsideration" of biotech IPO in primary market, survival problem of listed...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)