New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Channel Infrastructure NZ Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Channel Infrastructure (CHI) has acquired a 25% stake in the Somerton Pipeline for A$14.2m (~NZ$16.4m).</li><li>The deal will be fully debt funded and cashflow accretive in FY26.</li><li>We lift our target price +6cps (+2.2%).</li></ul>

Channel Infrastructure (CHI) has acquired a 25% stake in the Somerton Pipeline for A$14.2m (~NZ$16.4m).The deal will be fully debt funded and cashflow accretive in FY26.We lift our target price +6cps (+2.2%).

Channel Infrastructure Pipeline Across The Ditch

<ul><li>The price increase Channel Infrastructure (CHI) is able to charge its customers in 2026 is +3.25%.</li><li>The uplift, set by the Producer Price Index (PPI), was slightly ahead of expectations and results in minor increases to our earnings outlook (EBITDA increase ~+1%) and valuation (target price increased +2cps to NZ$2.77).</li><li>Our long-term PPI assumption of 2.25% is unchanged.</li></ul>

The price increase Channel Infrastructure (CHI) is able to charge its customers in 2026 is +3.25%.The uplift, set by the Producer Price Index (PPI), was slightly ahead of expectations and results in minor increases to our earnings outlook (EBITDA increase ~+1%) and valuation (target price increased +2cps to NZ$2.77).Our long-term PPI assumption of 2.25% is unchanged.

Channel Infrastructure PiPPIng Expectations—2026 Price Increase Set

<ul><li>We downgrade Channel Infrastructure’s (CHI) rating to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.</li><li>3Q25 operating statistics were strong, with record 3Q throughput up +5% on the prior year, albeit in line with expectations.</li><li>The next potential positive catalyst for CHI is its inclusion in the MSCI Small Cap Index, although we rate the chance of inclusion as less than 50%.</li></ul>

We downgrade Channel Infrastructure’s (CHI) rating to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.3Q25 operating statistics were strong, with record 3Q throughput up +5% on the prior year, albeit in line with expectations.The next potential positive catalyst for CHI is its inclusion in the MSCI Small Cap Index, although we rate the chance of inclusion as less than 50%.

Channel Infrastructure Upgrade Downgrade—3Q25 Op Stats

<ul><li>Channel Infrastructure (CHI) delivered a solid 1H25 result, and is tracking towards the upper end of FY25 EBITDA and dividend guidance.</li><li>Positives include: ahead-of-schedule progress on Z Energy’s jet storage project; a nine-year extension to a private storage contract; opportunities arising from the Government’s increased diesel stockholding requirements.</li><li>CHI is well positioned to pursue M&amp;A and leverage its strategic Marsden Point land bank.</li></ul>

Channel Infrastructure (CHI) delivered a solid 1H25 result, and is tracking towards the upper end of FY25 EBITDA and dividend guidance.Positives include: ahead-of-schedule progress on Z Energy’s jet storage project; a nine-year extension to a private storage contract; opportunities arising from the Government’s increased diesel stockholding requirements.CHI is well positioned to pursue M&amp;A and leverage its strategic Marsden Point land bank.

Channel Infrastructure - 1H25 Result—CHI Keeps Flowing

<ul><li>Channel Infrastructure’s (CHI) operating throughput for 2Q25 was mixed, but it is difficult to get a strong read on underlying trends due to Wiri storage tank outages impacting stock levels.</li><li>Key jet movements at Auckland Airport (AIA) are showing green shoots of improvement, albeit overall aircraft movements remain well below pre-COVID levels.</li><li>While an investment decision on the bio-refinery has been pushed back to 2026, we believe this reflects the complexity of the project rather than an increased risk that it will not proceed.</li></ul>

Channel Infrastructure’s (CHI) operating throughput for 2Q25 was mixed, but it is difficult to get a strong read on underlying trends due to Wiri storage tank outages impacting stock levels.Key jet movements at Auckland Airport (AIA) are showing green shoots of improvement, albeit overall aircraft movements remain well below pre-COVID levels.While an investment decision on the bio-refinery has been pushed back to 2026, we believe this reflects the complexity of the project rather than an increased risk that it will not proceed.

Channel Infrastructure Block Out The Noise—2Q25 Op Stats

New Zealand

Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited operates a fuel infrastructure company. The Company owns and operates a petroleum pipeline from the refinery to a terminal at Marsden Point, in Northland. Channel Infrastructure produces motor gasoline, automotive and diesel fuels, aviation jet fuel, light and heavy fuel oils, and bitumen.

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Channel Infrastructure NZ Ltd (CHI NZ)

Channel Infrastructure Pipeline Across The Ditch

Channel Infrastructure (CHI) has acquired a 25% stake in the Somerton Pipeline for A$14.2m (~NZ$16.4m). The deal will be fully debt funded and...

Forsyth Barr

Channel Infrastructure PiPPIng Expectations—2026 Price Increase Set

The uplift, set by the Producer Price Index (PPI), was slightly ahead of expectations and results in minor increases to our earnings outlook...

Forsyth Barr

Channel Infrastructure Upgrade Downgrade—3Q25 Op Stats

The next potential positive catalyst for CHI is its inclusion in the MSCI Small Cap Index, although we rate the chance of inclusion as less than 50%.

Forsyth Barr

Channel Infrastructure - 1H25 Result—CHI Keeps Flowing

Channel Infrastructure (CHI) delivered a solid 1H25 result, and is tracking towards the upper end of FY25 EBITDA and dividend guidance.

Forsyth Barr

Channel Infrastructure Block Out The Noise—2Q25 Op Stats

Channel Infrastructure’s (CHI) operating throughput for 2Q25 was mixed, but it is difficult to get a strong read on underlying trends due to Wiri...

Forsyth Barr

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