IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Novotech Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novotech-health-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33411:1" rel="noopener">Novotech Holdings (NVT HK)</a> is a global contract research organisation (CRO). Novotech is the third-largest Asia-Pacific-based CRO and the largest biotech-specialist CRO in the Asia-Pacific region, both in terms of revenue in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. The controlling shareholder is TPG and the other shareholders include GIC, Kaiser Foundation Hospitals and Sequoia Capital. Novotech has started pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $0.5-1.0 billion, according to press reports.</p></div><div>
<div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/novotech-health-ipo-initiation-on-demand-science" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57198" rel="noopener">Novotech Health IPO Initiation: On-Demand Science</a>, we noted that, unlike other H-listed CRO peers, Novotech gives investors an avenue to gain exposure to the broader Asia-Pacific CRO industry. We concluded that Novotech’s fundamentals are solid and the IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. </p></div>
<div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/novotech-health-ipo-a-solid-start-to-2021" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57255" rel="noopener">Novotech Health IPO: A Solid Start to 2021</a>, we examined the PHIP which discloses the 1Q21 results along with additional disclosures and recent developments. Overall, we maintained our view that the fundamentals look attractive. </p></div></div>
</div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Novotech's potential valuation range. </p></div></div></div>

Novotech Holdings (NVT HK) is a global contract research organisation (CRO). Novotech is the third-largest Asia-Pacific-based CRO and the largest biotech-specialist CRO in the Asia-Pacific region, both in terms of revenue in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. The controlling shareholder is TPG and the other shareholders include GIC, Kaiser Foundation Hospitals and Sequoia Capital. Novotech has started pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $0.5-1.0 billion, according to press reports.
In Novotech Health IPO Initiation: On-Demand Science, we noted that, unlike other H-listed CRO peers, Novotech gives investors an avenue to gain exposure to the broader Asia-Pacific CRO industry. We concluded that Novotech’s fundamentals are solid and the IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. 
In Novotech Health IPO: A Solid Start to 2021, we examined the PHIP which discloses the 1Q21 results along with additional disclosures and recent developments. Overall, we maintained our view that the fundamentals look attractive. 
In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Novotech's potential valuation range. 

Novotech Health IPO: Valuation First-Look

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.</p>

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Frontage Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27754" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27754:1">Frontage Holdings (1521 HK)</a> has launched its Hong Kong IPO at a price range of HK$2.55-3.20 per share to raise HK$1.27-1.60 billion ($160-200 million). Three cornerstone investors, Hillhouse Capital, Greenwoods Asset Management and OrbiMed Advisors, intend to purchase $90 million of the offering.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/frontage-holdings-ipo-preview-an-uncertain-transition" target="_blank">our IPO initiation note</a>, we cautioned that while the market backdrop is favourable, Frontage is a business in the middle of an uncertain transition. Overall, with the caveat that Frontage has yet to prove that it can reaccelerate organic revenue growth, we believe that the risk-reward profile is favourable at the low-end of IPO price range. </p></div>

Frontage Holdings (1521 HK) has launched its Hong Kong IPO at a price range of HK$2.55-3.20 per share to raise HK$1.27-1.60 billion ($160-200 million). Three cornerstone investors, Hillhouse Capital, Greenwoods Asset Management and OrbiMed Advisors, intend to purchase $90 million of the offering.In our IPO initiation note, we cautioned that while the market backdrop is favourable, Frontage is a business in the middle of an uncertain transition. Overall, with the caveat that Frontage has yet to prove that it can reaccelerate organic revenue growth, we believe that the risk-reward profile is favourable at the low-end of IPO price range. 

Frontage Holdings IPO: Risk-Reward Is Favourable at the Low-End of Price Range

Viva Biotech Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27850" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27850:1">Viva Biotech Holdings (1873 HK)</a> is a leading global contract research organisation (CRO). It has launched its IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,232 million ($157 million), at the mid-point of the IPO price range.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Overall, with the caveat that Viva's valuation is highly dependent on fair value gains (from its portfolio companies), we believe that Viva can just about justify the low-end of IPO price range</p></div>

Viva Biotech Holdings (1873 HK) is a leading global contract research organisation (CRO). It has launched its IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,232 million ($157 million), at the mid-point of the IPO price range.Overall, with the caveat that Viva's valuation is highly dependent on fair value gains (from its portfolio companies), we believe that Viva can just about justify the low-end of IPO price range

Viva Biotech IPO: Just About Supporting the Low-End IPO Price Range

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27795" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1">WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (WUXI HK)</a> is a leading global pharmaceutical R&amp;D outsourcing service provider and the largest in Asia by revenue in 2017. According to press reports, WuXi AppTec has priced its IPO at HK$68 per share, at the middle of an indicated range of HK$64.1-HK$71.5, to raise $1 billion. The shares will begin trading on Thursday.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>We have had some further client discussion on WuXi AppTec’s intrinsic valuation and decided to put together a set of DCF-based valuation along with scenario analysis. Our conclusion remains the same that WuXi AppTec is a good company but overvalued at the proposed IPO price. </p></div>

WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (WUXI HK) is a leading global pharmaceutical R&amp;D outsourcing service provider and the largest in Asia by revenue in 2017. According to press reports, WuXi AppTec has priced its IPO at HK$68 per share, at the middle of an indicated range of HK$64.1-HK$71.5, to raise $1 billion. The shares will begin trading on Thursday.We have had some further client discussion on WuXi AppTec’s intrinsic valuation and decided to put together a set of DCF-based valuation along with scenario analysis. Our conclusion remains the same that WuXi AppTec is a good company but overvalued at the proposed IPO price. 

WuXi AppTec IPO Valuation: Bull/​Bear Case DCF Scenarios

United States

Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. provides research tools and support services that enable drug discovery and development.  The Company provides the animal research models required in research and development for new drugs, devices, and therapies.  Charles River's customers include pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, hospitals, and academic institutions.

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Charles River Laboratories (CRL US)

Novotech Health IPO: Valuation First-Look

Novotech is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $0.5-1.0 billion. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Novotech's...

Arun George

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the...

Vermilion Research

Frontage Holdings IPO: Risk-Reward Is Favourable at the Low-End of Price Range

Frontage Holdings (1521 HK) has launched its Hong Kong IPO at a price range of HK$2.55-3.20 per share to raise HK$1.27-1.60 billion ($160-200...

Arun George

Viva Biotech IPO: Just About Supporting the Low-End IPO Price Range

Viva Biotech Holdings (1873 HK) is a leading global contract research organisation (CRO). It has launched its IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,232...

Arun George

WuXi AppTec IPO Valuation: Bull/Bear Case DCF Scenarios

WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (WUXI HK) is a leading global pharmaceutical R&D outsourcing service provider and the largest in Asia by revenue in 2017....

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Novotech Health IPO: Valuation First-Look

Novotech is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $0.5-1.0 billion. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Novotech's...

Arun George

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the...

Vermilion Research

Frontage Holdings IPO: Risk-Reward Is Favourable at the Low-End of Price Range

Frontage Holdings (1521 HK) has launched its Hong Kong IPO at a price range of HK$2.55-3.20 per share to raise HK$1.27-1.60 billion ($160-200...

Arun George

Viva Biotech IPO: Just About Supporting the Low-End IPO Price Range

Viva Biotech Holdings (1873 HK) is a leading global contract research organisation (CRO). It has launched its IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,232...

Arun George

WuXi AppTec IPO Valuation: Bull/​Bear Case DCF Scenarios

WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (WUXI HK) is a leading global pharmaceutical R&D outsourcing service provider and the largest in Asia by revenue in 2017....

Arun George

WuXi AppTec IPO Valuation: Bull/Bear Case DCF Scenarios