Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.</p>

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Frontage Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27754" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27754:1">Frontage Holdings (1521 HK)</a> has launched its Hong Kong IPO at a price range of HK$2.55-3.20 per share to raise HK$1.27-1.60 billion ($160-200 million). Three cornerstone investors, Hillhouse Capital, Greenwoods Asset Management and OrbiMed Advisors, intend to purchase $90 million of the offering.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/frontage-holdings-ipo-preview-an-uncertain-transition" target="_blank">our IPO initiation note</a>, we cautioned that while the market backdrop is favourable, Frontage is a business in the middle of an uncertain transition. Overall, with the caveat that Frontage has yet to prove that it can reaccelerate organic revenue growth, we believe that the risk-reward profile is favourable at the low-end of IPO price range. </p></div>

Frontage Holdings (1521 HK) has launched its Hong Kong IPO at a price range of HK$2.55-3.20 per share to raise HK$1.27-1.60 billion ($160-200 million). Three cornerstone investors, Hillhouse Capital, Greenwoods Asset Management and OrbiMed Advisors, intend to purchase $90 million of the offering.In our IPO initiation note, we cautioned that while the market backdrop is favourable, Frontage is a business in the middle of an uncertain transition. Overall, with the caveat that Frontage has yet to prove that it can reaccelerate organic revenue growth, we believe that the risk-reward profile is favourable at the low-end of IPO price range. 

Frontage Holdings IPO: Risk-Reward Is Favourable at the Low-End of Price Range

Viva Biotech Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27850" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27850:1">Viva Biotech Holdings (1873 HK)</a> is a leading global contract research organisation (CRO). It has launched its IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,232 million ($157 million), at the mid-point of the IPO price range.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Overall, with the caveat that Viva's valuation is highly dependent on fair value gains (from its portfolio companies), we believe that Viva can just about justify the low-end of IPO price range</p></div>

Viva Biotech Holdings (1873 HK) is a leading global contract research organisation (CRO). It has launched its IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,232 million ($157 million), at the mid-point of the IPO price range.Overall, with the caveat that Viva's valuation is highly dependent on fair value gains (from its portfolio companies), we believe that Viva can just about justify the low-end of IPO price range

Viva Biotech IPO: Just About Supporting the Low-End IPO Price Range

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27795" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1">WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (WUXI HK)</a> is a leading global pharmaceutical R&amp;D outsourcing service provider and the largest in Asia by revenue in 2017. According to press reports, WuXi AppTec has priced its IPO at HK$68 per share, at the middle of an indicated range of HK$64.1-HK$71.5, to raise $1 billion. The shares will begin trading on Thursday.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>We have had some further client discussion on WuXi AppTec’s intrinsic valuation and decided to put together a set of DCF-based valuation along with scenario analysis. Our conclusion remains the same that WuXi AppTec is a good company but overvalued at the proposed IPO price. </p></div>

WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (WUXI HK) is a leading global pharmaceutical R&amp;D outsourcing service provider and the largest in Asia by revenue in 2017. According to press reports, WuXi AppTec has priced its IPO at HK$68 per share, at the middle of an indicated range of HK$64.1-HK$71.5, to raise $1 billion. The shares will begin trading on Thursday.We have had some further client discussion on WuXi AppTec’s intrinsic valuation and decided to put together a set of DCF-based valuation along with scenario analysis. Our conclusion remains the same that WuXi AppTec is a good company but overvalued at the proposed IPO price. 

WuXi AppTec IPO Valuation: Bull/​Bear Case DCF Scenarios

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27795" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1">WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (WUXI HK)</a> is a leading global pharmaceutical R&amp;D outsourcing service provider and the largest in Asia by revenue in 2017. WuXi AppTec has launched its Hong Kong IPO to raise $954–1,064 million, implying a market cap of $9.6–10.7 billion.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>WuXi AppTec hopes to rebuild investor sentiment in large Hong Kong IPOs after a string of high profile IPO disasters. WuXi AppTec has a good but admittedly short track record through its A Share listing. Our analysis suggests that WuXi AppTec is overvalued at the proposed IPO price range. Consequently, we recommend sitting out the IPO and building a position on any post-IPO share price weakness.</p></div>

WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (WUXI HK) is a leading global pharmaceutical R&amp;D outsourcing service provider and the largest in Asia by revenue in 2017. WuXi AppTec has launched its Hong Kong IPO to raise $954–1,064 million, implying a market cap of $9.6–10.7 billion.  WuXi AppTec hopes to rebuild investor sentiment in large Hong Kong IPOs after a string of high profile IPO disasters. WuXi AppTec has a good but admittedly short track record through its A Share listing. Our analysis suggests that WuXi AppTec is overvalued at the proposed IPO price range. Consequently, we recommend sitting out the IPO and building a position on any post-IPO share price weakness.

WuXi AppTec IPO Valuation: Not Much Money Left on the Table

United States

Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. provides research tools and support services that enable drug discovery and development.  The Company provides the animal research models required in research and development for new drugs, devices, and therapies.  Charles River's customers include pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, hospitals, and academic institutions.

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Charles River Laboratories (CRL US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the...

Vermilion Research

Frontage Holdings IPO: Risk-Reward Is Favourable at the Low-End of Price Range

Frontage Holdings (1521 HK) has launched its Hong Kong IPO at a price range of HK$2.55-3.20 per share to raise HK$1.27-1.60 billion ($160-200...

Arun George

Viva Biotech IPO: Just About Supporting the Low-End IPO Price Range

Viva Biotech Holdings (1873 HK) is a leading global contract research organisation (CRO). It has launched its IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,232...

Arun George

WuXi AppTec IPO Valuation: Bull/Bear Case DCF Scenarios

WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (WUXI HK) is a leading global pharmaceutical R&D outsourcing service provider and the largest in Asia by revenue in 2017....

Arun George

WuXi AppTec IPO Valuation: Not Much Money Left on the Table

WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (WUXI HK) is a leading global pharmaceutical R&D outsourcing service provider and the largest in Asia by revenue in 2017....

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the...

Vermilion Research

Frontage Holdings IPO: Risk-Reward Is Favourable at the Low-End of Price Range

Frontage Holdings (1521 HK) has launched its Hong Kong IPO at a price range of HK$2.55-3.20 per share to raise HK$1.27-1.60 billion ($160-200...

Arun George

Viva Biotech IPO: Just About Supporting the Low-End IPO Price Range

Viva Biotech Holdings (1873 HK) is a leading global contract research organisation (CRO). It has launched its IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,232...

Arun George

WuXi AppTec IPO Valuation: Bull/​Bear Case DCF Scenarios

WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (WUXI HK) is a leading global pharmaceutical R&D outsourcing service provider and the largest in Asia by revenue in 2017....

Arun George

WuXi AppTec IPO Valuation: Not Much Money Left on the Table

WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (WUXI HK) is a leading global pharmaceutical R&D outsourcing service provider and the largest in Asia by revenue in 2017....

Arun George

WuXi AppTec IPO Valuation: Bull/Bear Case DCF Scenarios