Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Hotel Property Investments / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Pub play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)</a> has announced - and summarily <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240909/pdf/067ntttrhq85j9.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> - a A$3.65/share cash Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-retail-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11375:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Terms are a 14.8% premium to the undisturbed share price on March 28; following which a 14.8% "strategic interest" (@ A$3.35/share) was <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240328/pdf/061yzcklzj5ndh.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">acquired</a> by CQR and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5593:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall (CHC AU)</a>.  </li>
<li>
The Offer is subject to a 50.1% acceptance hurdle. The Offer should be open for acceptances around the 23 September.</li>
</ul>


Pub play Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU) has announced - and summarily rejected - a A$3.65/share cash Offer from Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU).
Terms are a 14.8% premium to the undisturbed share price on March 28; following which a 14.8% "strategic interest" (@ A$3.35/share) was acquired by CQR and Charter Hall (CHC AU).  

The Offer is subject to a 50.1% acceptance hurdle. The Offer should be open for acceptances around the 23 September.


Hotel Property (HPI AU) Rejects Charter Hall's A$3.65/Share Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There will be passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nextdc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8570:1" rel="noopener">Nextdc Ltd (NXT AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5593:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall (CHC AU)</a> and selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vital-healthcare-property-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3510:1" rel="noopener">Vital Healthcare Property Trust (VHP NZ)</a> at the close on 20 September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5593:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall (CHC AU)</a>'s stock price jumped following announcement of results and that was accompanied by big short covering. There should still be more positioning here. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nextdc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8570:1" rel="noopener">Nextdc Ltd (NXT AU)</a>'s increase in cumulative excess volume came on a drop in the stock price. There could be some covering here as positioning builds up.</li>
</ul>


There will be passive buying in Nextdc Ltd (NXT AU) and Charter Hall (CHC AU) and selling in Vital Healthcare Property Trust (VHP NZ) at the close on 20 September.

Charter Hall (CHC AU)'s stock price jumped following announcement of results and that was accompanied by big short covering. There should still be more positioning here. 

Nextdc Ltd (NXT AU)'s increase in cumulative excess volume came on a drop in the stock price. There could be some covering here as positioning builds up.


Australia/NZ Real Estate: Stocks With (Large) Passive Flows

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 23rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Westgold Resources, Charter Hall, Aristocrat Leisure.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 23rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Westgold Resources, Charter Hall, Aristocrat Leisure.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 23rd): Goodman, Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Westgold Resources

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With 2 days left to review cutoff, there could be 1 inclusion and 3 deletions for the index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.4% and a round-trip trade of A$212m.</li>
<li>The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till Friday and whether the index provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.</li>
</ul>


With 2 days left to review cutoff, there could be 1 inclusion and 3 deletions for the index at the September rebalance.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.4% and a round-trip trade of A$212m.
The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till Friday and whether the index provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: One Add & A Few Deletes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-storage-king" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39857:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Storage King (ASK AU)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-property-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30998:1" rel="noopener">Vaneck Vectors Australian Property ETF (MVA AU)</a> in June. There are float changes and capping changes too.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.33% and will result in a one-way trade of A$19m. There are a couple of stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>There has been a recent spike in shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-storage-king" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39857:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Storage King (ASK AU)</a> but passive selling will be larger than the short interest.</li>
</ul>



Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) will be deleted from the Vaneck Vectors Australian Property ETF (MVA AU) in June. There are float changes and capping changes too.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.33% and will result in a one-way trade of A$19m. There are a couple of stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
There has been a recent spike in shorts on Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) but passive selling will be larger than the short interest.


MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Abacus Storage King Deleted (Finally!)

Australia

Charter Hall Group invests in and develops real estate.  The Company manages real estate investment funds and develops commercial, residential, and industrial properties.

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Charter Hall (CHC AU)

Australia/NZ Real Estate: Stocks With (Large) Passive Flows

Charter Hall Group and NEXTDC will be added to global real estate indices and Vital Healthcare will be deleted. With positioning low, expect the...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 23rd): Goodman, Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Westgold Resources

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Westgold...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: One Add & A Few Deletes

There could be 1 add and 3 deletes in Sep. Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.4% and a...

Brian Freitas

MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Abacus Storage King Deleted (Finally!)

Abacus Storage King (ASK) will be deleted from the MVA ETF at the close on 21 June. Estimated one-way turnover is 3.33% and will result in a one...

Brian Freitas

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Hotel Property (HPI AU) Rejects Charter Hall's A$3.65/Share Offer

Currently trading marginally through terms. If in, stay in. I'd be happy buying around, or below terms. Expect Charet Hall to bump.

David Blennerhassett

Australia/NZ Real Estate: Stocks With (Large) Passive Flows

Charter Hall Group and NEXTDC will be added to global real estate indices and Vital Healthcare will be deleted. With positioning low, expect the...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 23rd): Goodman, Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Westgold Resources

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Westgold...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: One Add & A Few Deletes

There could be 1 add and 3 deletes in Sep. Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.4% and a...

Brian Freitas

MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Abacus Storage King Deleted (Finally!)

Abacus Storage King (ASK) will be deleted from the MVA ETF at the close on 21 June. Estimated one-way turnover is 3.33% and will result in a one...

Brian Freitas