Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> was (finally) included in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect programs; on the same day a Cayman court uplifted a BABA dissenter's merger price by 659%.</li>
<li>MBK has teamed up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/young-poong-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11740:1" rel="noopener">Young Poong (000670 KS)</a> to secure control of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17944:1" rel="noopener">Korea Zinc (010130 KS)</a> via Partial Tender Offers for Korea Zinc and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/young-poong-precision-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16188:1" rel="noopener">Young Poong Precision (036560 KS)</a>
</li>
<li>Like all long-dated arbs, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric (6967 JP)</a> is really about buying dips, then lightening up when it gets tighter, as long as the opinion about eventual result/path is unchanged.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was (finally) included in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect programs; on the same day a Cayman court uplifted a BABA dissenter's merger price by 659%.
MBK has teamed up with Young Poong (000670 KS) to secure control of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) via Partial Tender Offers for Korea Zinc and Young Poong Precision (036560 KS)

Like all long-dated arbs, Shinko Electric (6967 JP) is really about buying dips, then lightening up when it gets tighter, as long as the opinion about eventual result/path is unchanged.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Alibaba, Young Poong/Korea Zinc, Shinko Electric, Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec

<ul>
<li>I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Six new deals: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property (HPI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai (1788 HK)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong  (6837 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joban-kosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2826:1" rel="noopener">Joban Kosan (9675 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dyna-mac-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16153:1" rel="noopener">Dyna Mac (DMHL SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17944:1" rel="noopener">Korea Zinc (010130 KS)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/young-poong-precision-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16188:1" rel="noopener">Young Poong Precision (036560 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hulic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:388:1" rel="noopener">Hulic (3003 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/namoi-cotton-co-operative" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10711:1" rel="noopener">Namoi Cotton Co Operative (NAM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente (8114 JP)</a>, &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silverlake-axis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14150:1" rel="noopener">Silverlake Axis (SILV SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Six new deals: Hotel Property (HPI AU), Guotai (1788 HK)/Haitong  (6837 HK), Joban Kosan (9675 JP), Dyna Mac (DMHL SP), Korea Zinc (010130 KS)/Young Poong Precision (036560 KS), Hulic (3003 JP).
Key updates took place on Namoi Cotton Co Operative (NAM AU), Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Fuji Soft (9749 JP), Descente (8114 JP), &amp; Silverlake Axis (SILV SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Seven & I, Hotel Property, Hulic, Joban Kosan, Dyna Mac, Fuji Soft, Descente

Hotel Property Investments / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Pub play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)</a> has announced - and summarily <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240909/pdf/067ntttrhq85j9.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> - a A$3.65/share cash Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-retail-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11375:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Terms are a 14.8% premium to the undisturbed share price on March 28; following which a 14.8% "strategic interest" (@ A$3.35/share) was <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240328/pdf/061yzcklzj5ndh.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">acquired</a> by CQR and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5593:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall (CHC AU)</a>.  </li>
<li>
The Offer is subject to a 50.1% acceptance hurdle. The Offer should be open for acceptances around the 23 September.</li>
</ul>


Pub play Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU) has announced - and summarily rejected - a A$3.65/share cash Offer from Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU).
Terms are a 14.8% premium to the undisturbed share price on March 28; following which a 14.8% "strategic interest" (@ A$3.35/share) was acquired by CQR and Charter Hall (CHC AU).  

The Offer is subject to a 50.1% acceptance hurdle. The Offer should be open for acceptances around the 23 September.


Hotel Property (HPI AU) Rejects Charter Hall's A$3.65/Share Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There should be one deletion from the index in September. And there could be another deletion. And there will be capping changes for a few stocks.</li>
<li>The index changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.12% resulting in a one-way trade of A$13m. There is only one stock with over A$5m to trade.</li>
<li>Following the spinoff, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10566:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Group (ABG AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-storage-king" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39857:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Storage King (ASK AU)</a> will be the lowest ranked index constituents and at risk of deletion from the index.</li>
</ul>


There should be one deletion from the index in September. And there could be another deletion. And there will be capping changes for a few stocks.
The index changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.12% resulting in a one-way trade of A$13m. There is only one stock with over A$5m to trade.
Following the spinoff, Abacus Group (ABG AU) and Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) will be the lowest ranked index constituents and at risk of deletion from the index.


MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Delete, One Close Delete & Capping

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I currently expect one change for the ASX 100 index and five changes (including one intra-review change) for the ASX 200 index.</li>
<li>There could be 7 ADDs and 5 DELs for the ASX 300 index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the September 2023 Rebalance.
I currently expect one change for the ASX 100 index and five changes (including one intra-review change) for the ASX 200 index.
There could be 7 ADDs and 5 DELs for the ASX 300 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 23: Many Changes Ahead

Australia

Charter Hall Retail REIT owns a portfolio of supermarkets and shopping centers located in non-metropolitan areas throughout Australia, New Zealand and the United States.

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Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Alibaba, Young Poong/Korea Zinc, Shinko Electric, Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Seven & I, Hotel Property, Hulic, Joban Kosan, Dyna Mac, Fuji Soft, Descente

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Delete, One Close Delete & Capping

There should be one deletion, could be another deletion, and some capping changes. One-way turnover is 2.12% resulting in a one-way trade of A$13m....

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 23: Many Changes Ahead

ABP's price ratios vs peers are very close to the upper Bollinger bands and have also significantly outperformed the trends in FY+1 and FY+2 EPS...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Alibaba, Young Poong/Korea Zinc, Shinko Electric, Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Seven & I, Hotel Property, Hulic, Joban Kosan, Dyna Mac, Fuji Soft, Descente

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Hotel Property (HPI AU) Rejects Charter Hall's A$3.65/Share Offer

Currently trading marginally through terms. If in, stay in. I'd be happy buying around, or below terms. Expect Charet Hall to bump.

David Blennerhassett

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Delete, One Close Delete & Capping

There should be one deletion, could be another deletion, and some capping changes. One-way turnover is 2.12% resulting in a one-way trade of A$13m....

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 23: Many Changes Ahead

ABP's price ratios vs peers are very close to the upper Bollinger bands and have also significantly outperformed the trends in FY+1 and FY+2 EPS...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA