Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As expected, there are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in March. However, there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.6% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$18.15bn (US$2.3bn). Most stocks will have same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices in the Hang Seng family.</li>
<li>Short interest is elevated in some of the stocks with large flows and shorts could be active in the stocks over the next couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


As expected, there are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in March. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.6% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$18.15bn (US$2.3bn). Most stocks will have same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices in the Hang Seng family.
Short interest is elevated in some of the stocks with large flows and shorts could be active in the stocks over the next couple of weeks.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$2.3bn Trade

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.</li>
<li>We continue to expect no index changes for March 2026. However, we estimate there to be around US$862mn in one-way flows triggered by capping.</li>
<li>The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2026 index rebal event will be announced publicly after the close on Friday 13th February 2026.</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
We continue to expect no index changes for March 2026. However, we estimate there to be around US$862mn in one-way flows triggered by capping.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2026 index rebal event will be announced publicly after the close on Friday 13th February 2026.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar26: No Changes Likely; US$860mn One-Way; Announcement Next Week

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations of index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in March 2026.</li>
<li>We expect no index changes but we estimate there to be roughly US$840mn in one-way flows in March 2026.</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations of index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in March 2026.
We expect no index changes but we estimate there to be roughly US$840mn in one-way flows in March 2026.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar26: Final Ranks; US$840mn One-Way

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> ended on 31 December, the changes will be announced on 13 February and implemented on 6 March.</li>
<li>No constituent changes will result in a one-way turnover of 1.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$12bn (U$1.5bn).</li>
<li>There is a low probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chery-automobile-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39918:1" rel="noopener">Chery Automobile (9973 HK)</a> being considered for index inclusion.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index ended on 31 December, the changes will be announced on 13 February and implemented on 6 March.
No constituent changes will result in a one-way turnover of 1.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$12bn (U$1.5bn).
There is a low probability of Geely Auto (175 HK) and Chery Automobile (9973 HK) being considered for index inclusion.


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Changes If Index Universe Is Expanded

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a> is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed on three exchanges. </li>
<li>NIO’s Q4 deliveries guidance was below expectations, and sales momentum is on a declining trend. Sustainably hitting its 20% gross margin target and achieving breakeven in 2026 seems a stretch.  </li>
<li>NIO’s valuation is stretched, trading at a material premium to the median EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples of Chinese EV peers. </li>
</ul>



NIO (NIO US) is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed on three exchanges. 
NIO’s Q4 deliveries guidance was below expectations, and sales momentum is on a declining trend. Sustainably hitting its 20% gross margin target and achieving breakeven in 2026 seems a stretch.  
NIO’s valuation is stretched, trading at a material premium to the median EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples of Chinese EV peers. 


2026 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

China

Chery Automobile is a Chinese automobile manufacturer that designs, develops, manufactures, and sells passenger vehicles, automotive parts, and components. It offers internal combustion engines and new energy vehicles under brands such as CHERY, JETOUR, EXEED, iCAR, and LUXEED. The company is headquartered in Wuhu, Anhui, China, and was founded in 1997.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Chery (9973 HK)

HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$2.3bn Trade

There are no constituent changes but float and capping changes result in one-way turnover of 2.6% and a round-trip trade of US$2.3bn. Shorts are...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar26: No Changes Likely; US$860mn One-Way; Announcement Next Week

Geely Auto (175 HK) and Chery Automobile (9973 HK) are interesting cases. Deciding their suitability for HSTECH is a highly-subjective call and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar26: Final Ranks; US$840mn One-Way

Based on our latest estimates, we see one-way flow of US$840mn which translates to a turnover of 1.8%. Currently, we do not expect any index changes.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Changes If Index Universe Is Expanded

No constituent changes expected but capping leads to big flows. Low probability of 2 stocks being added after meeting the Autonomous criterion and...

Brian Freitas

2026 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

4Q deliveries guidance was below expectations, and the sales momentum is declining. Breakeven targets are likely to be pushed out. The valuation is...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)