Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

Destiny Investment Token (DESTINY CURNCY)

<ul>
<li>We are launching coverage of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/destiny-investment-token" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35642:1" rel="noopener">Destiny Investment Token (DESTINY CURNCY)</a> (DESTINY) which will be classified as an investment token in Thailand.</li>
<li>At 2.99%, the 2-year callable tokens are not attractive, in our view.</li>
<li>The on-going COVID-19 will pose a risk that the conditional THB1bn box office (for additional 2.01% return) will not be easily achievable.</li>
</ul>


We are launching coverage of Destiny Investment Token (DESTINY CURNCY) (DESTINY) which will be classified as an investment token in Thailand.
At 2.99%, the 2-year callable tokens are not attractive, in our view.
The on-going COVID-19 will pose a risk that the conditional THB1bn box office (for additional 2.01% return) will not be easily achievable.


Destiny Investment Token: Destined Only for the Fans

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June. The review announcement for the September 2021 review should be made on 13 August and will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors.We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI at the rebalance and 15 potential deletions, plus another 7 close deletions. Only 10 of the potential deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect buy list since the other deletions are either not a part of Stock Connect currently or have listed A-shares.The inclusions to the HSCI outperformed the deletions at the March rebalance from review cut-off to announcement of the changes before giving by some of the gains to implementation and then some more for the 1 month post the implementation of the changes.

Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June. The review announcement for the September 2021 review should be made on 13 August and will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors.We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI at the rebalance and 15 potential deletions, plus another 7 close deletions. Only 10 of the potential deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect buy list since the other deletions are either not a part of Stock Connect currently or have listed A-shares.The inclusions to the HSCI outperformed the deletions at the March rebalance from review cut-off to announcement of the changes before giving by some of the gains to implementation and then some more for the 1 month post the implementation of the changes.

HSCI Index Rebalance & Stock Connect: Expected Changes in September

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Trip.com Should Continue to Get a Significant Upward Re-Rating: Mainland China has been at the epicenter of this tourism slowdown. If the virus impact continues to be held in check for 2-3 weeks post-Golden Week, the risk to tourism and confidence should start to seriously abate; and *Travel Rebound Underway: The good news is that mainland China hasn’t “officially” reported local COVID-19 infections since August 15th, although there were two asymptomatic cases disclosed in late September. After nine plus months of hiding and the Covid-19 pandemic largely under control in mainland China, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism stated that the first four days of the Golden Week holiday beginning October 1st witnessed nearly 425 mn local trips - nearly 80% of the level posted in 2019.

*Trip.com Should Continue to Get a Significant Upward Re-Rating: Mainland China has been at the epicenter of this tourism slowdown. If the virus impact continues to be held in check for 2-3 weeks post-Golden Week, the risk to tourism and confidence should start to seriously abate; and *Travel Rebound Underway: The good news is that mainland China hasn’t “officially” reported local COVID-19 infections since August 15th, although there were two asymptomatic cases disclosed in late September. After nine plus months of hiding and the Covid-19 pandemic largely under control in mainland China, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism stated that the first four days of the Golden Week holiday beginning October 1st witnessed nearly 425 mn local trips - nearly 80% of the level posted in 2019.

<ul>
<li>
Trip.com Should Get a Significant Downward Re-Rating: Mainland China is at the epicenter of this tourism slowdown. If the virus impact continues to spread beyond the spring, the risk to tourism and confidence looks much more significant, including a global recession.</li>
<li>
China Isn't Only Country Under-reporting Corona Virus Data.In our view, mainland China isn't the only country fiddling with the corona virus numbers. In light of the corona virus cases reported to date in Japan and Singapore of 414 and 75, respectively, how is it that Hong Kong has only reported just 57 cases to date. More laughable is the fact that North Korea has zero reported cases.  </li>
<li> Expect World Tourist Events to Be Cancelled or Postponed: If this situation does not get under control by Spring and the Japanese antidote comes later than June expectations, we would expect the Tokyo Olympics and other world events to continue to be postponed or cancelled. </li>
</ul>



Trip.com Should Get a Significant Downward Re-Rating: Mainland China is at the epicenter of this tourism slowdown. If the virus impact continues to spread beyond the spring, the risk to tourism and confidence looks much more significant, including a global recession.

China Isn't Only Country Under-reporting Corona Virus Data.In our view, mainland China isn't the only country fiddling with the corona virus numbers. In light of the corona virus cases reported to date in Japan and Singapore of 414 and 75, respectively, how is it that Hong Kong has only reported just 57 cases to date. More laughable is the fact that North Korea has zero reported cases.  
 Expect World Tourist Events to Be Cancelled or Postponed: If this situation does not get under control by Spring and the Japanese antidote comes later than June expectations, we would expect the Tokyo Olympics and other world events to continue to be postponed or cancelled. 


Trip.com - Another Ugly Corona Virus Update

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Haitong Unitrust International Financial Leasing / Equity Capital Markets

Haitong Unitrust International Financial Leasing (1905 HK)

Haitong Unitrust International Financial Leasing

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/28044" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28044:1">Haitong UniTrust International Leasing (1905 HK)</a> has launched its Hong Kong IPO at a price range of HK$1.88-2.08 per share to raise HK$2.3 billion ($290 million) at the mid-point of the IPO price range. Haitong UniTrust is a foreign-funded financial leasing company in China and is the leasing unit of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5665" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a>.<div class="content-highlight">In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/haitong-unitrust-intl-leasing-ipo-preview-fourth-time-lucky" target="_blank">our IPO initiation note</a>, we noted that Haitong UniTrust’s fundamentals are mixed, which would need to be reflected in the IPO valuation. Overall, our view is that Haitong UniTrust is fairly priced at the proposed IPO price range and would participate in the IPO at most at the low-end of the IPO price range. </div>

Haitong UniTrust International Leasing (1905 HK) has launched its Hong Kong IPO at a price range of HK$1.88-2.08 per share to raise HK$2.3 billion ($290 million) at the mid-point of the IPO price range. Haitong UniTrust is a foreign-funded financial leasing company in China and is the leasing unit of Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK).In our IPO initiation note, we noted that Haitong UniTrust’s fundamentals are mixed, which would need to be reflected in the IPO valuation. Overall, our view is that Haitong UniTrust is fairly priced at the proposed IPO price range and would participate in the IPO at most at the low-end of the IPO price range. 

Haitong UniTrust Intl Leasing IPO: Fair Value

Hong Kong

China Aircraft Leasing Group Holdings Limited is a full value chain aircraft solutions provider for the global aviation industry, offering services such as aircraft operating leasing, purchase and leaseback, portfolio trading, asset management, and aircraft disassembly and component sales. The company also provides maintenance, repair, and overhaul services, along with aviation finance. It was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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China Aircraft Leasing Group (1848 HK)

Destiny Investment Token: Destined Only for the Fans

We are launching coverage of Thailand's Destiny Investment Token. At 2.99%, the 2-year callable tokens are not attractive without a recourse to the...

Bondcritic

HSCI Index Rebalance & Stock Connect: Expected Changes in September

Currently we see 28 potential inclusions & 22 deletions from the HSCI at the Sep rebalance. Most of the inclusions will join Stock Connect while...

Brian Freitas

Trip.com – All Systems Go

Trip.com - All Systems Go: Travel during Golden Week, and C-Trip looks to be biggest beneficiary as largest online travel agency.

Thomas J. Monaco

Trip.com - Another Ugly Corona Virus Update

Trip.com Should Get a Significant Downward Re-Rating: Mainland China is at the epicenter of this tourism slowdown. If the virus impact continues...

Thomas J. Monaco

Haitong UniTrust Intl Leasing IPO: Fair Value

Haitong UniTrust International Leasing (1905 HK) has launched its Hong Kong IPO at a price range of HK$1.88-2.08 per share to raise HK$2.3 billion...

Arun George

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