Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; </li><li>Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; </li><li>If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; </li></ul>

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; 

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As forecast, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rl-commercial-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33809:1" rel="noopener">RL Commercial REIT (RCR PM)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-global-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16224:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Global (AGI PM)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 30 January.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy over 10 days of ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rl-commercial-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33809:1" rel="noopener">RL Commercial REIT</a> and will need to sell nearly 13 days of ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-global-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16224:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Global Group</a>.</li>
<li>Both stocks look under positioned. There were wild moves at the January rebalance last year and it could be worth putting on a position in the stocks.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, RL Commercial REIT (RCR PM) will replace Alliance Global (AGI PM) in the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) at the close of trading on 30 January.
Passive trackers will need to buy over 10 days of ADV in RL Commercial REIT and will need to sell nearly 13 days of ADV in Alliance Global Group.
Both stocks look under positioned. There were wild moves at the January rebalance last year and it could be worth putting on a position in the stocks.


PCOMP Index Rebalance: One Set of Changes as RCR Replaces AGI

<ul>
<li>With the review period for the February rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> complete, there could be one change for the index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rl-commercial-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33809:1" rel="noopener">RL Commercial REIT (RCR PM)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-global-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16224:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Global Group (AGI PM)</a> in the index. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rl-commercial-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33809:1" rel="noopener">RL Commercial REIT</a> will be the second REIT to be added to the index.</li>
<li>There were wild moves at the January rebalance last year and it could be worth putting on a position in the stocks.</li>
</ul>


With the review period for the February rebalance of the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) complete, there could be one change for the index.

RL Commercial REIT (RCR PM) could replace Alliance Global Group (AGI PM) in the index. RL Commercial REIT will be the second REIT to be added to the index.
There were wild moves at the January rebalance last year and it could be worth putting on a position in the stocks.


PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: One Set of Changes Likely in Feb

<ul>
<li>As forecast, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digiplus-interactive-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23060:1" rel="noopener">DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloomberry-resorts-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17961:1" rel="noopener">Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 15 August.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digiplus-interactive-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23060:1" rel="noopener">DigiPlus Interactive</a> has traded lower following the filing of the Online Gambling Regulatory bill that aims to enhance responsible gaming standards and strengthen regulatory oversight in the sector.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digiplus-interactive-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23060:1" rel="noopener">DigiPlus Interactive</a> is in the early stages of a buyback and is looking to launch in Brazil and South Africa. The index inclusion could provide some respite in the short-term.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM) will replace Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM) in the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) at the close of trading on 15 August.

DigiPlus Interactive has traded lower following the filing of the Online Gambling Regulatory bill that aims to enhance responsible gaming standards and strengthen regulatory oversight in the sector.

DigiPlus Interactive is in the early stages of a buyback and is looking to launch in Brazil and South Africa. The index inclusion could provide some respite in the short-term.


PCOMP Index Rebalance: PLUS to Replace BLOOM as Regulatory Concerns Hit Stock

<ul>
<li>As forecast, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/areit-ayalaland-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28856:1" rel="noopener">Areit (AyalaLand REIT) (AREIT PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-banking-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22788:1" rel="noopener">China Banking (CBC PM)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nickel-asia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10379:1" rel="noopener">Nickel Asia (NIKL PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilcon-builder-s-supply" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23685:1" rel="noopener">Wilcon Depot (WLCON PM)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index</a>.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 14-44 days of ADV in the adds while selling between 17-54 days of ADV in the deletes.</li>
<li>The stocks have already moved a lot over the last few months and positioning has built up over that period. There could still be outperformance ahead of the passives trading.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, Areit (AyalaLand REIT) (AREIT PM) and China Banking (CBC PM) will replace Nickel Asia (NIKL PM) and Wilcon Depot (WLCON PM) in the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 14-44 days of ADV in the adds while selling between 17-54 days of ADV in the deletes.
The stocks have already moved a lot over the last few months and positioning has built up over that period. There could still be outperformance ahead of the passives trading.


PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON

Philippines

Chinabank is a leading private universal bank in the Philippines, offering a comprehensive range of banking and financial products and services to individuals and businesses. These include deposits, loans, credit cards, international banking, trust services, and investment banking through its subsidiaries. The bank is headquartered in Makati City, Philippines, and was founded on August 16, 1920.

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Chinabank (CBC PM)

Be Wary of High LDR Banks at Present

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank...

Daniel Tabbush

PCOMP Index Rebalance: One Set of Changes as RCR Replaces AGI

RCR replaces AGI in the PCOMP Index at the close on 30 January. There are only 4 trading days to implementation, and both stocks appear...

Brian Freitas

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: One Set of Changes Likely in Feb

RL Commercial REIT could replace Alliance Global in the index. The impact on the stocks is high, and it could be worth putting on a position in...

Brian Freitas

PCOMP Index Rebalance: PLUS to Replace BLOOM as Regulatory Concerns Hit Stock

DigiPlus will replace Bloomberry in the PCOMP. DigiPlus has sold off on regulatory concerns and has launched a buyback. Bloomberry has continued to...

Brian Freitas

PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON

AREIT and CBC will replace NIKL and WLCON in the PCOMP this week. Passive trackers will need to buy between 14-54 days of ADV in the changes. Adds...

Brian Freitas

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