Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A play on higher food and energy prices going forward</li>
<li>Natural Gas moving up from multi-year lows will support fertiliser prices going forward</li>
<li>A Low valuation with a solid balance sheet lowers the risk</li>
</ul>


A play on higher food and energy prices going forward
Natural Gas moving up from multi-year lows will support fertiliser prices going forward
A Low valuation with a solid balance sheet lowers the risk


China Bluechemical Ltd (3983.HK) - Fertiliser Pricing on the Up

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

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Morningstar, Inc.

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Potash Corp Of Saskatchewan / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li class="p1">We have lowered our long-term potash price outlook roughly&nbsp;10% to $285 (real terms) per metric ton from $315.</li><li class="p1">We now&nbsp;expect negotiations with China in 2016 will end in a cut to&nbsp;the contract price.</li><li class="p1">We expect potash supply growth to&nbsp;slightly exceed demand up to 2020.</li><li class="p1">As a result, we expect&nbsp;prices to slide in real terms until that time.</li><li class="p1">At $22 per share, we think PotashCorp's shares are&nbsp;undervalued.</li><li class="p1">It seems the market is pricing in flat volumes&nbsp;and weaker prices than we're expecting</li></ul>

We have lowered our long-term potash price outlook roughly&nbsp;10% to $285 (real terms) per metric ton from $315.We now&nbsp;expect negotiations with China in 2016 will end in a cut to&nbsp;the contract price.We expect potash supply growth to&nbsp;slightly exceed demand up to 2020.As a result, we expect&nbsp;prices to slide in real terms until that time.At $22 per share, we think PotashCorp's shares are&nbsp;undervalued.It seems the market is pricing in flat volumes&nbsp;and weaker prices than we're expecting

We've Cut Our Potash Producer Fair Value Estimate on Price Pressure, But Shares Look Compelling

China

China BlueChemical develops, produces, and sells mineral fertilizers and chemical products. Its key products include urea, methanol, phosphorus, and compound fertilizers, as well as acrylonitrile. The company also provides port operations and transportation services. It was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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China BlueChemical (3983 HK)

China Bluechemical Ltd (3983.HK) - Fertiliser Pricing on the Up

Investors can capitalize on rising food and energy prices in this fertiliser stock poised for an upswing, with a low valuation and a strong...

Rikki Malik

We've Cut Our Potash Producer Fair Value Estimate on Price Pressure, But Shares Look Compelling

We have lowered our long-term potash price outlook roughly 10% to $285 (real terms) per metric ton from $315. We now expect negotiations with...

Morningstar, Inc.

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Bluechemical Ltd (3983.HK) - Fertiliser Pricing on the Up

​Investors can capitalize on rising food and energy prices in this fertiliser stock poised for an upswing, with a low valuation and a strong...

Rikki Malik

We've Cut Our Potash Producer Fair Value Estimate on Price Pressure, But Shares Look Compelling

We have lowered our long-term potash price outlook roughly 10% to $285 (real terms) per metric ton from $315. We now expect negotiations with...

Morningstar, Inc.

Investors can capitalize on rising food and energy prices in this fertiliser stock poised for an upswing, with a low valuation and a strong...