Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong Dollar continues to trade at the strong end of its band  resulting in upward pressure on HIBOR in turn causing a further unwind of the HKD carry trade.</li>
<li>HSI shows the strongest market breadth in 15 years as nearly all members trade above 200 DMA.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xtep-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18118:1" rel="noopener">Xtep International (1368 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a> all had breakouts to form uptrends.  All are part of the consumption sector in China
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong Dollar continues to trade at the strong end of its band  resulting in upward pressure on HIBOR in turn causing a further unwind of the HKD carry trade.
HSI shows the strongest market breadth in 15 years as nearly all members trade above 200 DMA.

Xtep International (1368 HK) , Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and China Education Group (839 HK) all had breakouts to form uptrends.  All are part of the consumption sector in China



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (OCTOBER 14)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, DZT Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the performance of Hong Kong Connect implementation in March 2026.</li>
<li>ADD stocks reversed their bridge window drawdown at implementation. The bounce faded by week 3 to 4.</li>
<li>DELETE stocks fell through first week, exceeding Sep 2025. Within the DELETE basket, the names where connect investors sold the most also fell the most.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the performance of Hong Kong Connect implementation in March 2026.
ADD stocks reversed their bridge window drawdown at implementation. The bounce faded by week 3 to 4.
DELETE stocks fell through first week, exceeding Sep 2025. Within the DELETE basket, the names where connect investors sold the most also fell the most.


HSCI / HK Connect (March 2026) Post-Event Review: What Worked, What Didn't

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng Index Company announced HSCI review results after market close on Feb 13. In our previous note, we reviewed the Sep 2025 HK Connect cycle.</li>
<li>In this note, we provide an update on the forecasted upcoming implementation action by the mainland exchanges based on implementation rules and highlight stock performance thus far.</li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that selectivity will be critical in this cycle, with differentiation driven by pre-positioning, narrative alignment, and ownership structure rather than mechanical inclusion alone.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng Index Company announced HSCI review results after market close on Feb 13. In our previous note, we reviewed the Sep 2025 HK Connect cycle.
In this note, we provide an update on the forecasted upcoming implementation action by the mainland exchanges based on implementation rules and highlight stock performance thus far.
Our analysis suggests that selectivity will be critical in this cycle, with differentiation driven by pre-positioning, narrative alignment, and ownership structure rather than mechanical inclusion alone.


HK Connect March 2026: Implementation Forecast and Positioning Framework

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 6th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC, Pop Mart Intl, Ke, ICBC, Zijin Gold International, Zijin Mining, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Zhaojin Mining Industry.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 6th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC, Pop Mart Intl, Ke, ICBC, Zijin Gold International, Zijin Mining, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Zhaojin Mining Industry.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Feb 6th): Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC, Pop Mart Intl, Ke, ICBC

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 9th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China Life, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Zijin Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 9th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China Life, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Zijin Mining.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jan 9th): Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China Life

China

China Chunlai Education Group Co., Ltd. is a leading provider of private higher education services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates multiple universities and colleges, offering a range of programs including bachelor's degrees, junior college to bachelor's degrees, junior college diplomas, and vocational education. It was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Shangqiu, People's Republic of China.

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China Chunlai Education (1969 HK)

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (OCTOBER 14)

HKD strengthens, HIBOR moves higher and HK shorts become more expensive. HK market breadth reached its highest level in 15 years last week. Xtep,...

David Mudd

HSCI / HK Connect (March 2026) Post-Event Review: What Worked, What Didn't

HK Connect Mar 2026 implementation cycle is completing. ADD reversed the WAI drawdown at implementation. DELETE continuation worked post...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect March 2026: Implementation Forecast and Positioning Framework

March Connect implementation is nearing: we forecast expected ADD/DELETE actions and assess how positioning, crowding, and southbound flows may...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Feb 6th): Tencent, Xiaomi, SMIC, Pop Mart Intl, Ke, ICBC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), SMIC (981 HK), Pop...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jan 9th): Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China Life

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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