Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Citic Bank Corp Ltd H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A-Shares only two days of the week and were up small Monday and Tuesday. H-shares took a breather Wednesday after trailing A-shares, then rallied hard on Thursday and Friday.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK11.3bn. Thursday saw a break of the SOUTHBOUND buying streak. </li>
<li>The big news in China markets this week was the idea that mainland investors through SOUTHBOUND would no longer be hit with a 20% w/h tax on dividends.</li>
</ul>


A-Shares only two days of the week and were up small Monday and Tuesday. H-shares took a breather Wednesday after trailing A-shares, then rallied hard on Thursday and Friday.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK11.3bn. Thursday saw a break of the SOUTHBOUND buying streak. 
The big news in China markets this week was the idea that mainland investors through SOUTHBOUND would no longer be hit with a 20% w/h tax on dividends.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 10 May 2024); Banks, Coal, and High-Div Energy/Materials Names

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/213/768/original/image_768460236451623962508577.png?1623962508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="213768"></figure>

Source: Our analysis
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).



Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook





Source: Our analysis




Related Insights
China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows 
Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer 
China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears 
China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game 
Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May 
ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story 
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China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 106.3% as of May 17th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -7.7ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, real estate, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Shenhua, Sinopec, PetroChina, China Telecom, CICC, GWM.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 106.3% as of May 17th.
The average A-H premium changed by -7.7ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, real estate, utilities.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Shenhua, Sinopec, PetroChina, China Telecom, CICC, GWM.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 17th): 44 Stocks at 52 Week High

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20590:1" rel="noopener">Citic Ltd (267 HK)</a> is a well-managed conglomerate trading at a big discount to its constituent parts</li>
<li>Earnings should move up from here and pays a decent dividend while you wait.</li>
<li>A member of both the the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)  and the HSCCI and will attract inflows once institutional money returns</li>
</ul>



Citic Ltd (267 HK) is a well-managed conglomerate trading at a big discount to its constituent parts
Earnings should move up from here and pays a decent dividend while you wait.
A member of both the the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)  and the HSCCI and will attract inflows once institutional money returns


Citic Limited - A Deeply Discounted Conglomerate in the Hang Seng Index

Macroeconomics

Monthly Newsletter | May 2021
Monetary data in May suggest that the environment has turned a notch tighter in China. Loan and deposit growth surprised on the downside and signals the beginning of yet another challenging period for the Chinese banks in the months ahead.
Both the asset and liability sides of the banks' balance sheets hit a wall in April. Loan growth missed consensus by a notable margin, driven by a softer mortgage market and slower corporate credit expansion. The net decline in new deposits was more worrying and the risk of disintermediation is on the rise, particularly for the smaller banks.
Deleveraging real estate exposures remains a top priority for the regulators. New mortgage rates have edged up, continuing a trend since 1Q21. Margins have widened slightly for new corporate loans as well. This supports our view that net interest margins have bottomed out and is mildly positive for the H-share G-SIBs.  
We expect the central bank to maintain a neutral policy for the remainder of 2021. The policy rates and loan prime rate will likely hold steady. That said, smaller banks that rely extensively on the interbank market may find it increasingly difficult to source cheap funding. Interbank bank defaults among the unlisted banks are not a remote possibility.
We will remain underweight the H-share banks against MSCI China <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/msci-china-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22895:1" rel="noopener">(MXCN INDEX)</a> until 2Q21 earnings. Meanwhile, we will watch closely whether a sales rebound story will materialize for the life insurers, as bank deposit outflows may find their way into savings polices in the coming quarters.

<div>
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<div>
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</div>

Monthly Newsletter | May 2021
Monetary data in May suggest that the environment has turned a notch tighter in China. Loan and deposit growth surprised on the downside and signals the beginning of yet another challenging period for the Chinese banks in the months ahead.
Both the asset and liability sides of the banks' balance sheets hit a wall in April. Loan growth missed consensus by a notable margin, driven by a softer mortgage market and slower corporate credit expansion. The net decline in new deposits was more worrying and the risk of disintermediation is on the rise, particularly for the smaller banks.
Deleveraging real estate exposures remains a top priority for the regulators. New mortgage rates have edged up, continuing a trend since 1Q21. Margins have widened slightly for new corporate loans as well. This supports our view that net interest margins have bottomed out and is mildly positive for the H-share G-SIBs.  
We expect the central bank to maintain a neutral policy for the remainder of 2021. The policy rates and loan prime rate will likely hold steady. That said, smaller banks that rely extensively on the interbank market may find it increasingly difficult to source cheap funding. Interbank bank defaults among the unlisted banks are not a remote possibility.
We will remain underweight the H-share banks against MSCI China (MXCN INDEX) until 2Q21 earnings. Meanwhile, we will watch closely whether a sales rebound story will materialize for the life insurers, as bank deposit outflows may find their way into savings polices in the coming quarters.


Related Insights




ICBC: The Prefs Are Junk and Should Trade Like It 

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Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May

China

China CITIC Bank Corporation Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, domestic settlement,  currency trading, bank guarantee, and other services. China CITIC Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Citic Bank Corp Ltd H (998 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 10 May 2024); Banks, Coal, and High-Div Energy/Materials Names

SOUTHBOUND flows lost their buy streak with a second net sell day since Chinese New Year, but HK performed well with HSI almost to 19,000....

Travis Lundy

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Our Silver Linings Playbook outlines our views on the China financials names that are most likely to remain resilient in the face of macro...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (May 17th): 44 Stocks at 52 Week High

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Shenhua, Sinopec, PetroChina, China Telecom, CICC, GWM.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Citic Limited - A Deeply Discounted Conglomerate in the Hang Seng Index

Citic Ltd (267 HK) is an undervalued conglomerate in the Hang Seng Index, offering a good dividend and potential for institutional inflows.

Rikki Malik

Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May

Monetary data in May point to a tighter environment for both lending and funding. Mortgage rates have edged up, but the deposit drain is worrying....

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 10 May 2024); Banks, Coal, and High-Div Energy/Materials Names

SOUTHBOUND flows lost their buy streak with a second net sell day since Chinese New Year, but HK performed well with HSI almost to 19,000....

Travis Lundy

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Our Silver Linings Playbook outlines our views on the China financials names that are most likely to remain resilient in the face of macro...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (May 17th): 44 Stocks at 52 Week High

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Shenhua, Sinopec, PetroChina, China Telecom, CICC, GWM.

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​Citic Ltd (267 HK) is an undervalued conglomerate in the Hang Seng Index, offering a good dividend and potential for institutional inflows.

Rikki Malik

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Monetary data in May point to a tighter environment for both lending and funding. Mortgage rates have edged up, but the deposit drain is worrying....

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Citic Ltd (267 HK) is an undervalued conglomerate in the Hang Seng Index, offering a good dividend and potential for institutional inflows.