Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Four weeks ago, I gave the warning that H/A spreads had moved tighter - too far too fast. The next week, spreads widened, they bounced back with a vengeance, then slightly wider in the short week at the start of Chinese New Year, and bouncing back in the post-CNY week.In the two weeks from before to after Chinese New Year, the average sector spread moved about 70bp tighter, but the average spread moved only 42bp tighter.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Sector</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">Last Week</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">Previous Week</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">3wks Ago</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">4wks Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Consumer</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  1.20%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 2.55%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 2.32%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  2.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Energy</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 1.43%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  1.64%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 1.98%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  0.59%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Financials &amp; Real Estate</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 0.10%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 0.29%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 0.62%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  1.73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Health Care &amp; Info Tech</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 1.45%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  1.52%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 2.29%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  0.27%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Industrials</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 0.26%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  0.62%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 2.48%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  1.30%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Materials</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 3.08%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  0.57%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 2.66%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  0.95%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Utilities</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 0.99%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 0.25%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 1.06%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  2.45%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sector Average</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 0.87%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  0.18%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 1.92%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  1.41%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>This week, the data is a bit cut short as the China Securities Depository and Clearing has not reported Southbound position data since the 10th as far as I can tell. <div class="content-highlight">There were 75 recommendations last week.  The 32 short recommendations lost an average of 48bp, slightly underperforming the market as a whole. The 43 long recommendations averaged gains of 50bp over the two weeks, outperforming the market as a whole. The combined total package was up 0.084% over the two weeks. </div><div><div><h3>The H/A Spread Market</h3></div></div><div>
The past two weeks straddling Chinese New Year saw mixed movement in H/A spreads, with 63 of 98 liquid spreads (64%) narrowing an average of 42bp. They are on average 92bp tighter over four weeks. 
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/832/original/Screenshot+2021-02-20+at+5.17.17+PM.png?1613812651" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189832"></figure></section><hr>
</div><div><div><h3>Consumer Sector</h3></div></div><div>
The first sector discussed is Consumer, where liquid H/A spreads narrowed on average 1.35% over the two weeks, but with some bumpiness. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> saw its spread move 3.1% wider over the two weeks and is now 7.1% wider over four weeks and it is no longer the narrowest liquid H/A spread in the sector, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> taking its place moving 2.4% in the two weeks and 10.7% in four.
</div><div class="content-highlight">
Two weeks ago, I recommended staying long the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>, and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> H vs A. 
Those four trades gained an average of 1.67% in spread terms on the week.
</div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/833/original/Screenshot+2021-02-20+at+5.28.45+PM.png?1613813350" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189833"></figure></section>For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.

Four weeks ago, I gave the warning that H/A spreads had moved tighter - too far too fast. The next week, spreads widened, they bounced back with a vengeance, then slightly wider in the short week at the start of Chinese New Year, and bouncing back in the post-CNY week.In the two weeks from before to after Chinese New Year, the average sector spread moved about 70bp tighter, but the average spread moved only 42bp tighter.

Sector
Last Week
Previous Week
3wks Ago
4wks Ago


Consumer
-  1.20%
+ 2.55%
+ 2.32%
-  2.62%


Energy
+ 1.43%
-  1.64%
+ 1.98%
-  0.59%


Financials &amp; Real Estate
+ 0.10%
+ 0.29%
+ 0.62%
-  1.73%


Health Care &amp; Info Tech
+ 1.45%
-  1.52%
+ 2.29%
-  0.27%


Industrials
+ 0.26%
-  0.62%
+ 2.48%
-  1.30%


Materials
+ 3.08%
-  0.57%
+ 2.66%
-  0.95%


Utilities
+ 0.99%
+ 0.25%
+ 1.06%
-  2.45%


Sector Average
+ 0.87%
-  0.18%
+ 1.92%
-  1.41%

This week, the data is a bit cut short as the China Securities Depository and Clearing has not reported Southbound position data since the 10th as far as I can tell. There were 75 recommendations last week.  The 32 short recommendations lost an average of 48bp, slightly underperforming the market as a whole. The 43 long recommendations averaged gains of 50bp over the two weeks, outperforming the market as a whole. The combined total package was up 0.084% over the two weeks. The H/A Spread Market
The past two weeks straddling Chinese New Year saw mixed movement in H/A spreads, with 63 of 98 liquid spreads (64%) narrowing an average of 42bp. They are on average 92bp tighter over four weeks. 

Consumer Sector
The first sector discussed is Consumer, where liquid H/A spreads narrowed on average 1.35% over the two weeks, but with some bumpiness. 
BYD (1211 HK) saw its spread move 3.1% wider over the two weeks and is now 7.1% wider over four weeks and it is no longer the narrowest liquid H/A spread in the sector, with Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) taking its place moving 2.4% in the two weeks and 10.7% in four.

Two weeks ago, I recommended staying long the Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), and short BYD (1211 HK), Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK), and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) H vs A. 
Those four trades gained an average of 1.67% in spread terms on the week.
For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.

Quiddity Weekly H/A: High Volatility in Materials and Industrials and Spreads Over Lunar New Year

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Costs Now An Issue: Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB], the Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] banking subsidiary, reported CNY 6.5 bn – declining CNY 2.2 bn (25.1%) on a linked quarter basis. In this environment, credit troubles no doubt are a foregone conclusion. However, this was not necessarily PAB’s biggest issue in its most results announcement, where the bulk of the earnings decline was attributed to a CNY 1.9 bn (17.1%) linked quarter increase in costs;*Credit Is WEAKER Still:  We find that credit weakness is actually deteriorating at an even more accelerated pace than in 3Q20, as net new NPLs have increased CNY 20.5 bn or a massive 241% (223% in 3Q20) on an annualized basis. We also find that PAB’s reserves still remain quite light by CNY 152 bn if we assume a 2x NPL ratio. This shortfall represents 60% of stated equity; and*Fundamentally Challenged Still: Despite the Investor Day cheerleading session, Ping An P&amp;C operating profits declined CNY 2.6 bn (29.2%) HOH in 1H20, as the overall combined ratio eroded 1.5% to 98.1% due primarily to continued weakness within the credit insurance unit where the combined ratio came in at 125.6% (up 32.4%). The credit insurance segment reported a CNY 3.5 bn underwriting loss, due to defaults on underlying loans.

*Costs Now An Issue: Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB], the Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] banking subsidiary, reported CNY 6.5 bn – declining CNY 2.2 bn (25.1%) on a linked quarter basis. In this environment, credit troubles no doubt are a foregone conclusion. However, this was not necessarily PAB’s biggest issue in its most results announcement, where the bulk of the earnings decline was attributed to a CNY 1.9 bn (17.1%) linked quarter increase in costs;*Credit Is WEAKER Still:  We find that credit weakness is actually deteriorating at an even more accelerated pace than in 3Q20, as net new NPLs have increased CNY 20.5 bn or a massive 241% (223% in 3Q20) on an annualized basis. We also find that PAB’s reserves still remain quite light by CNY 152 bn if we assume a 2x NPL ratio. This shortfall represents 60% of stated equity; and*Fundamentally Challenged Still: Despite the Investor Day cheerleading session, Ping An P&amp;C operating profits declined CNY 2.6 bn (29.2%) HOH in 1H20, as the overall combined ratio eroded 1.5% to 98.1% due primarily to continued weakness within the credit insurance unit where the combined ratio came in at 125.6% (up 32.4%). The credit insurance segment reported a CNY 3.5 bn underwriting loss, due to defaults on underlying loans. 

China Merchants Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

*Weak 4Q20 Bottom-Line: China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) [CMB] announced a poor set of preliminary 4Q20 results, with net profit declining CNY 6.1 bn (22.7%) on a linked quarter basis – this, despite having its tax rate decline 790 bp to 15.6% over the period; and*Best Retail Franchise Hitting Credit Wall: While CMB has the best retail franchise in mainland China, credit risk has substantially increased in 4Q20. We note a potential net new NPL increase of CNY 11.4 bn linked quarter for a whopping annualized increase in NPLs of 80.4%. Trouble is brewing in paradise.

*Weak 4Q20 Bottom-Line: China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) [CMB] announced a poor set of preliminary 4Q20 results, with net profit declining CNY 6.1 bn (22.7%) on a linked quarter basis – this, despite having its tax rate decline 790 bp to 15.6% over the period; and*Best Retail Franchise Hitting Credit Wall: While CMB has the best retail franchise in mainland China, credit risk has substantially increased in 4Q20. We note a potential net new NPL increase of CNY 11.4 bn linked quarter for a whopping annualized increase in NPLs of 80.4%. Trouble is brewing in paradise.  

China Merchants Bank – Massive 4Q20 Charge-Offs

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Quantitative Analysis

Our "Buy the Worst" strategy intended to beat the Hang Seng Index in 2020, as laid out in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/buy-the-worst-a-simple-strategy-to-beat-the-hang-seng-index-in-2020-and-the-years-to-come" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35427" rel="noopener">"Buy the Worst" - A Simple Strategy to Beat the Hang Seng Index in 2020 and the Years to Come?</a>, did not work out well. The portfolio of the five worst performing Index constituents in 2019 registered an average of 26.1% plunge in share price YTD, sharply underperformed the 5.8% decline in HSI. In our view, this is primarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic which hit the old economy stocks (which all five are) hardest. As for this year, as of 29 Dec, the five worst-performing HSI stocks YTD are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20590:1" rel="noopener">Citic Ltd (267 HK)</a> (again!), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-overseas-land-invest" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:419:1" rel="noopener">China Overseas Land &amp; Investment Ltd (688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a>. While they do not look likely to outperform the Index in next year from their business exposure, we highlight that a rotation into old economy stocks as COVID-19 vaccines help to open up global economic recovery is a potential wild card.

Our "Buy the Worst" strategy intended to beat the Hang Seng Index in 2020, as laid out in "Buy the Worst" - A Simple Strategy to Beat the Hang Seng Index in 2020 and the Years to Come?, did not work out well. The portfolio of the five worst performing Index constituents in 2019 registered an average of 26.1% plunge in share price YTD, sharply underperformed the 5.8% decline in HSI. In our view, this is primarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic which hit the old economy stocks (which all five are) hardest. As for this year, as of 29 Dec, the five worst-performing HSI stocks YTD are Citic Ltd (267 HK) (again!), China Overseas Land &amp; Investment Ltd (688 HK), CNOOC Ltd (883 HK), AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) and China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK). While they do not look likely to outperform the Index in next year from their business exposure, we highlight that a rotation into old economy stocks as COVID-19 vaccines help to open up global economic recovery is a potential wild card.  

A Review Of "Buy the Worst" Strategy in 2020 and Can It Beat the Hang Seng Index in 2021?

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

There is a healthy concern that the Fed is spiking this holiday season’s punch bowl while the ECB is sweetening the brew with additional TLTROs and less collateral. US federal stimulus may add the moonshine. These actions will impact Asia’s risk assets. Thin markets could see outsized moves as year-end event deadlines approach. Risk remains to the downside as positive outcomes are already priced in. Nonetheless, the Fed continues to underwrite this market although the longevity is open to debate despite recent announcements. Credit investors cannot fight the Fed, but you can fight the urge to overindulge.Two days after the Fed announcement to extend the longevity, but not alter the duration, of its bond purchases, FOMC members openly began to qualify this decision. The announcement is tantamount to spiking the punch bowl. Price discovery is already distorted in the credit markets and excessive risk taking is already encouraged. With economic recovery priced-into risk assets but mispriced in risk-free assets due to central bank policies, the ability to hedge market downturns may be impaired. This could exacerbate a market correction. This risk remains some time off, but it may approach at some point in 2021 and begin to get priced in much earlier.The failure of the Fed to alter the duration of its bond purchases should embolden the market to break the psychological 1% barrier on the 10-year Treasury bond, especially if we see a US federal stimulus package over the weekend. This would be beneficial to bank securities over the short term, especially if it occurs in tandem with continued bear steepening from the short end of the curve. Concurrently, higher rates would raise the real effective rate and could be dollar negative. Asia and EM securities could follow, then retrace positive moves.Work through the weekend to agree additional US federal stimulus may bear fruit as a compromise on ending the Fed’s emergency lending programs is reached. A limited agreement is priced-in, but downside may also be limited as the early January Senate run-off race in Georgia will become the focus irrespective of the current stimulus bill. The run-off race outcome could deliver even more stimulus shorter thereafter.In Europe, fishing rights are damming the works towards a Brexit deal. This disagreement could be bridged. Meanwhile, Christmas is effectively cancelled in London due to the virus while other US and European jurisdictions continue to see increased economic impacts. Rolling lockdowns do not improve consumer confidence and Q1 2021 economic contractions may ensue. This could impact Asia asset values.In Asia itself, China-centric risk assets continue to perform, although these still have a long way to catchup with the recent US rally. Positive sentiment that China’s economy will continue to outperform are tempered with caution regarding the potential for increased defaults. Vaccine expectations continue to power other markets in Asia in a cognitive dissonance trade which ignores vaccine distribution and time extension risks.Market Outlook: Positive stimulus or Brexit news could lead to a strong start in Asia as the week begins. However, a buy the rumor, sell the fact tactical trade could then ensue. Thin markets may exacerbate price moves over the next two to three weeks. This may confuse noise for signals. We think it better to fade a further market rally. At the same time, we would avoid extending into any year-end decline.

There is a healthy concern that the Fed is spiking this holiday season’s punch bowl while the ECB is sweetening the brew with additional TLTROs and less collateral. US federal stimulus may add the moonshine. These actions will impact Asia’s risk assets. Thin markets could see outsized moves as year-end event deadlines approach. Risk remains to the downside as positive outcomes are already priced in. Nonetheless, the Fed continues to underwrite this market although the longevity is open to debate despite recent announcements. Credit investors cannot fight the Fed, but you can fight the urge to overindulge.Two days after the Fed announcement to extend the longevity, but not alter the duration, of its bond purchases, FOMC members openly began to qualify this decision. The announcement is tantamount to spiking the punch bowl. Price discovery is already distorted in the credit markets and excessive risk taking is already encouraged. With economic recovery priced-into risk assets but mispriced in risk-free assets due to central bank policies, the ability to hedge market downturns may be impaired. This could exacerbate a market correction. This risk remains some time off, but it may approach at some point in 2021 and begin to get priced in much earlier.The failure of the Fed to alter the duration of its bond purchases should embolden the market to break the psychological 1% barrier on the 10-year Treasury bond, especially if we see a US federal stimulus package over the weekend. This would be beneficial to bank securities over the short term, especially if it occurs in tandem with continued bear steepening from the short end of the curve. Concurrently, higher rates would raise the real effective rate and could be dollar negative. Asia and EM securities could follow, then retrace positive moves.Work through the weekend to agree additional US federal stimulus may bear fruit as a compromise on ending the Fed’s emergency lending programs is reached. A limited agreement is priced-in, but downside may also be limited as the early January Senate run-off race in Georgia will become the focus irrespective of the current stimulus bill. The run-off race outcome could deliver even more stimulus shorter thereafter.In Europe, fishing rights are damming the works towards a Brexit deal. This disagreement could be bridged. Meanwhile, Christmas is effectively cancelled in London due to the virus while other US and European jurisdictions continue to see increased economic impacts. Rolling lockdowns do not improve consumer confidence and Q1 2021 economic contractions may ensue. This could impact Asia asset values.In Asia itself, China-centric risk assets continue to perform, although these still have a long way to catchup with the recent US rally. Positive sentiment that China’s economy will continue to outperform are tempered with caution regarding the potential for increased defaults. Vaccine expectations continue to power other markets in Asia in a cognitive dissonance trade which ignores vaccine distribution and time extension risks.Market Outlook: Positive stimulus or Brexit news could lead to a strong start in Asia as the week begins. However, a buy the rumor, sell the fact tactical trade could then ensue. Thin markets may exacerbate price moves over the next two to three weeks. This may confuse noise for signals. We think it better to fade a further market rally. At the same time, we would avoid extending into any year-end decline.

Bank Credit Weekly: Fed Spikes While the ECB Sweetens the Punch Bowl

China

China CITIC Bank Corporation Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, domestic settlement,  currency trading, bank guarantee, and other services. China CITIC Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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China CITIC Bank (601998 CH)

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While our "Buy the Worst" strategy underperformed the HSI sharply YTD, we see extending the strategy into 2021 may catch up as the rotation back to...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Bank Credit Weekly: Fed Spikes While the ECB Sweetens the Punch Bowl

The Fed spikes while the ECB sweetens the seasonal punch bowl. US stimulus may add the moonshine. This could be a festive week for bank securities....

Hank Calenti, CFA

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