Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.</li>
<li>Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.</li>
<li>Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.</li>
</ul>


So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.
Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.
Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.


OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong market is experiencing its worst February/March period in 10 years.  Although the market has corrected amid risk-off sentiment, we expect it to hold long-term support at 24000.</li>
<li>The energy sector has been the clear beneficiary this year, with coal companies outperforming. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> share price has tumbled since the start of the war, amid questions about helium supply and prices following the bombing of Qatar facilities.
</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong market is experiencing its worst February/March period in 10 years.  Although the market has corrected amid risk-off sentiment, we expect it to hold long-term support at 24000.
The energy sector has been the clear beneficiary this year, with coal companies outperforming. 

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) share price has tumbled since the start of the war, amid questions about helium supply and prices following the bombing of Qatar facilities.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (March 23)

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>The time is right to increase exposure to the Hong Kong market</li>
<li>A confluence of factors and catalysts will drive the index higher</li>
<li>We suggest a few names that we believe will benefit.</li>
</ul>


The time is right to increase exposure to the Hong Kong market
A confluence of factors and catalysts will drive the index higher
We suggest a few names that we believe will benefit.


Tactical Trading – Increasing Hong Kong Exposure

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.


Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Central banks have set the stage for the next inflationary wave by moving to an easing bias despite higher inflation</li>
<li>The Federal Reserve, the BoJ, the ECB and the SNB all tilt to easing</li>
<li>US deficit spending together with China and Germany exiting an industrial recession bode well for industrial commodities</li>
</ul>


Central banks have set the stage for the next inflationary wave by moving to an easing bias despite higher inflation
The Federal Reserve, the BoJ, the ECB and the SNB all tilt to easing
US deficit spending together with China and Germany exiting an industrial recession bode well for industrial commodities


Global Easing Combined with a Resumption of Industrial Growth Is a Good Set-Up for Commodities

China

China Coal Energy is a large-scale energy enterprise primarily engaged in the production and sale of coal, coal chemical products, and the manufacturing of coal mining equipment. It also operates in power generation and offers products like thermal and coking coal, polyolefin, methanol, and urea. The company was founded on August 22, 2006, and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Price Gauge
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China Coal Energy (1898 HK)

OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (March 23)

The Hong Kong market is experiencing its worst February/March period in 10 years. Although the market has corrected amid risk-off sentiment, we...

David Mudd

Tactical Trading – Increasing Hong Kong Exposure

Now is an opportune time to increase investments in the Hong Kong market, as various factors are aligning to propel the index upward. We discuss...

Rikki Malik

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI. Discussed Thursday to expect support at the 50-day MA. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Global Easing Combined with a Resumption of Industrial Growth Is a Good Set-Up for Commodities

Central banks shifting towards easing despite rising inflation, sets the stage for the next inflationary wave. Commodity Prices and stocks...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (March 23)

The Hong Kong market is experiencing its worst February/March period in 10 years. Although the market has corrected amid risk-off sentiment, we...

David Mudd

Tactical Trading – Increasing Hong Kong Exposure

​Now is an opportune time to increase investments in the Hong Kong market, as various factors are aligning to propel the index upward. We discuss...

Rikki Malik

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI. Discussed Thursday to expect support at the 50-day MA. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Global Easing Combined with a Resumption of Industrial Growth Is a Good Set-Up for Commodities

​Central banks shifting towards easing despite rising inflation, sets the stage for the next inflationary wave. Commodity Prices and stocks...

Rikki Malik

Now is an opportune time to increase investments in the Hong Kong market, as various factors are aligning to propel the index upward. We discuss...

Central banks shifting towards easing despite rising inflation, sets the stage for the next inflationary wave. Commodity Prices and stocks...