Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

China Construction Bank / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> is part of a list of stocks that will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-index-float-methodology-change-hk-stocks-with-big-passive-sells" target="_blank" rel="noopener">subject to passive selling flows at the end of May</a>, according to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> </li>
<li>This insight analyzes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H</a>'s currently overbought price (relative to our quantitative model targets), identifying tactical setups to navigate the expected passive selling ahead of the May rebalance.</li>
<li>Passive trackers with a known end-May exit obligation have a clear timing incentive to front-run their own rebalance: sell now at elevated prices before market impact erodes execution quality.</li>
</ul>



China Construction Bank H (939 HK) is part of a list of stocks that will be subject to passive selling flows at the end of May, according to Brian Freitas 
This insight analyzes China Construction Bank H's currently overbought price (relative to our quantitative model targets), identifying tactical setups to navigate the expected passive selling ahead of the May rebalance.
Passive trackers with a known end-May exit obligation have a clear timing incentive to front-run their own rebalance: sell now at elevated prices before market impact erodes execution quality.


China Construction Bank H (939 HK) Tactical Setup Ahead of US$5bn+ Passive Selling Flow in May

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 2nd.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Lenovo, Baba, Meituan, Tencent, Kb Laminates, Zj Innolight.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 2nd.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Lenovo, Baba, Meituan, Tencent, Kb Laminates, Zj Innolight.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Lenovo, Baba, Meituan, Tencent, Kb Laminates, Zj Innolight

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in December 2026.</li>
<li>We expect two ADDs and two DELs for December 2026. We also estimate there to be ~US$118mn in one-way flows including the effects of capping.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in December 2026.
We expect two ADDs and two DELs for December 2026. We also estimate there to be ~US$118mn in one-way flows including the effects of capping.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec26: Final Ranks; Two ADDs/DELs Likely; One Change to Expectation

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China is again finding favour among investors but investment in Chinese equities has to be nuanced and calibrated. Even high growth and policy beneficiary sectors have underperformed lately.</li>
<li>Avoiding the victims of involution, selecting market leaders who can protect their margins and companies with overseas manufacturing bases who can protect their foreign margins seem a viable strategy.</li>
<li>Latest consumption trends indicate strength in communication equipment, gold and silver jewelry, beverages and cosmetics. Precautionary buying of precious metals indicates that high dividend yield stocks could do well too.</li>
</ul>


China is again finding favour among investors but investment in Chinese equities has to be nuanced and calibrated. Even high growth and policy beneficiary sectors have underperformed lately.
Avoiding the victims of involution, selecting market leaders who can protect their margins and companies with overseas manufacturing bases who can protect their foreign margins seem a viable strategy.
Latest consumption trends indicate strength in communication equipment, gold and silver jewelry, beverages and cosmetics. Precautionary buying of precious metals indicates that high dividend yield stocks could do well too.


Asian Equities: Investing in China Necessitates a Careful and Calibrated Approach

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>TOP STORIES In Depth: AI Agents Ignite Global Battle for the Future of Payments With a single voice command, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</li><li>Vice President Wu Jia ordered 40 cups of milk tea at a press conference in Hangzhou in January.</li><li>Within seconds, the company’s AI app, Qwen, placed and paid for the order.</li></ul>

TOP STORIES In Depth: AI Agents Ignite Global Battle for the Future of Payments With a single voice command, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.Vice President Wu Jia ordered 40 cups of milk tea at a press conference in Hangzhou in January.Within seconds, the company’s AI app, Qwen, placed and paid for the order.

CX Daily: AI Agents Ignite Global Battle for the Future of Payments 

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund management, foreign exchange, and other services. China Construction Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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China Construction Bank (601939 CH)

China Construction Bank H (939 HK) Tactical Setup Ahead of US$5bn+ Passive Selling Flow in May

China Construction Bank H (939 HK) is one of 15 HK-listed stocks facing passive selling flows at end-May: currently ultra-overbought (>94%...

Nico Rosti

HK Short Interest Weekly: Lenovo, Baba, Meituan, Tencent, Kb Laminates, Zj Innolight

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 2nd and highlight short interest changes in Lenovo, Baba, Meituan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec26: Final Ranks; Two ADDs/DELs Likely; One Change to Expectation

Expected DELs Postal Savings Bank (1658 HK) and Shenzhou International (2313 HK) could have 1.7x ADV (~US$45mn) and 0.7x ADV to sell (~US$21mn)...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Asian Equities: Investing in China Necessitates a Careful and Calibrated Approach

Investing in CN equity needs a nuanced approach, focusing on market leaders who can protect margins during "involution" & companies with foreign...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CX Daily: AI Agents Ignite Global Battle for the Future of Payments

TOP STORIES In Depth: AI Agents Ignite Global Battle for the Future of Payments With a single voice command, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Vice...

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Construction Bank H (939 HK) Tactical Setup Ahead of US$5bn+ Passive Selling Flow in May

​China Construction Bank H (939 HK) is one of 15 HK-listed stocks facing passive selling flows at end-May: currently ultra-overbought (>94%...

Nico Rosti

HK Short Interest Weekly: Lenovo, Baba, Meituan, Tencent, Kb Laminates, Zj Innolight

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 2nd and highlight short interest changes in Lenovo, Baba, Meituan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec26: Final Ranks; Two ADDs/DELs Likely; One Change to Expectation

Expected DELs Postal Savings Bank (1658 HK) and Shenzhou International (2313 HK) could have 1.7x ADV (~US$45mn) and 0.7x ADV to sell (~US$21mn)...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Asian Equities: Investing in China Necessitates a Careful and Calibrated Approach

​Investing in CN equity needs a nuanced approach, focusing on market leaders who can protect margins during "involution" & companies with foreign...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CX Daily: AI Agents Ignite Global Battle for the Future of Payments

TOP STORIES In Depth: AI Agents Ignite Global Battle for the Future of Payments With a single voice command, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Vice...

Caixin Global

China Construction Bank H (939 HK) is one of 15 HK-listed stocks facing passive selling flows at end-May: currently ultra-overbought (>94%...

Investing in CN equity needs a nuanced approach, focusing on market leaders who can protect margins during "involution" & companies with foreign...