HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Since 2013, the HSI has lost an average of 0.6% in March, with 2020 being the worst with a 9.7% decline due to the COVID-19 outbreak.</li>
<li>For the March down years, the average loss was 3.9%, similar to MTD (-4.6%). April, however, is generally strong, and aggressive investors can start building a position.</li>
<li>The top 10 worst months for HSI, since 2013, have averaged a return of -10.8%. If we align this March with the average, it will mean another 6.5% downside.  </li>
</ul>


Since 2013, the HSI has lost an average of 0.6% in March, with 2020 being the worst with a 9.7% decline due to the COVID-19 outbreak.
For the March down years, the average loss was 3.9%, similar to MTD (-4.6%). April, however, is generally strong, and aggressive investors can start building a position.
The top 10 worst months for HSI, since 2013, have averaged a return of -10.8%. If we align this March with the average, it will mean another 6.5% downside.  


HK Strategy: What Does March Look Like Historically?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-China in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on CCB, TENCENT, ICBC, CHINA LIFE, BOC, LONGFOR, Legend Biotech, CANMAX TECHNOLOGIES.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-China in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on CCB, TENCENT, ICBC, CHINA LIFE, BOC, LONGFOR, Legend Biotech, CANMAX TECHNOLOGIES.


MS-China Index Earning Revision (Sep): CCB, TENCENT, ICBC, CHINA LIFE, BOC, LONGFOR, Legend Biotech

<ul>
<li>YTD, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> has gained 4.8%, possibly kick-starting the January effect for 2026.</li>
<li>Over the last 13 years, January has been the only month to register as the best one in a year five times, with an average return of 6.7%. </li>
<li>If we count all the months of January since 2014, its average return is 1.6%, putting it the third-best-return month after July and November.</li>
</ul>


YTD, the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) has gained 4.8%, possibly kick-starting the January effect for 2026.
Over the last 13 years, January has been the only month to register as the best one in a year five times, with an average return of 6.7%. 
If we count all the months of January since 2014, its average return is 1.6%, putting it the third-best-return month after July and November.


China Strategy: January Effect, Believe It or Not?

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSCEI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on ICBC, PING AN, BIDU, NTES, CCB, LI AUTO, HORIZONROBOT, MEITUAN.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSCEI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on ICBC, PING AN, BIDU, NTES, CCB, LI AUTO, HORIZONROBOT, MEITUAN.


HSCEI Index Earning Revision (Sep): ICBC, PING AN, BIDU, NTES, CCB, LI AUTO, HORIZONROBOT, MEITUAN

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 18th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Lenovo, Knowledge Atlas, ABC, AIA, HKEx, China Resources Land, Trip.Com, Bidu, Cicc.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 18th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Lenovo, Knowledge Atlas, ABC, AIA, HKEx, China Resources Land, Trip.Com, Bidu, Cicc.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Lenovo, Knowledge Atlas, ABC, AIA, HKEx, China Resources Land, Trip.Com

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund management, foreign exchange, and other services. China Construction Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Construction Bank (601939 CH)

HK Strategy: What Does March Look Like Historically?

Historically, the HSI lost an average of 0.6% in Mar, with 2020 being the worst due to COVID-19. However, Apr tends to be strong, making it a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

MS-China Index Earning Revision (Sep): CCB, TENCENT, ICBC, CHINA LIFE, BOC, LONGFOR, Legend Biotech

We analyzed MS-China's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in CCB, TENCENT, ICBC, CHINA LIFE, BOC, LONGFOR, Legend Biotech,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Strategy: January Effect, Believe It or Not?

The HSI has gained 4.8% YTD, potentially signalling a January effect for 2026. Over the last 13 years, January has been the best-performing month...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCEI Index Earning Revision (Sep): ICBC, PING AN, BIDU, NTES, CCB, LI AUTO, HORIZONROBOT, MEITUAN

We analyzed HSCEI's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in ICBC, PING AN, BIDU, NTES, CCB, LI AUTO, HORIZONROBOT, MEITUAN.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Lenovo, Knowledge Atlas, ABC, AIA, HKEx, China Resources Land, Trip.Com

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 18th and highlight short interest changes in Lenovo (992 HK), Knowledge...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Strategy: What Does March Look Like Historically?

Historically, the ​HSI lost an average of 0.6% in Mar, with 2020 being the worst due to COVID-19. However, Apr tends to be strong, making it a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

MS-China Index Earning Revision (Sep): CCB, TENCENT, ICBC, CHINA LIFE, BOC, LONGFOR, Legend Biotech

We analyzed MS-China's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in CCB, TENCENT, ICBC, CHINA LIFE, BOC, LONGFOR, Legend Biotech,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Strategy: January Effect, Believe It or Not?

​The HSI has gained 4.8% YTD, potentially signalling a January effect for 2026. Over the last 13 years, January has been the best-performing month...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCEI Index Earning Revision (Sep): ICBC, PING AN, BIDU, NTES, CCB, LI AUTO, HORIZONROBOT, MEITUAN

We analyzed HSCEI's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in ICBC, PING AN, BIDU, NTES, CCB, LI AUTO, HORIZONROBOT, MEITUAN.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Lenovo, Knowledge Atlas, ABC, AIA, HKEx, China Resources Land, Trip.Com

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 18th and highlight short interest changes in Lenovo (992 HK), Knowledge...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Historically, the HSI lost an average of 0.6% in Mar, with 2020 being the worst due to COVID-19. However, Apr tends to be strong, making it a...

The HSI has gained 4.8% YTD, potentially signalling a January effect for 2026. Over the last 13 years, January has been the best-performing month...