HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Statistics supported "Sell in May, go away" for the HSI. Since 2013, the average return for May is -2%, and is negative in 8 out of the last 12 years.</li>
<li>On average, May is the worst month since 2020, too. This even eclipsed the month of Oct, which is widely believed to be normally the worst month.</li>
<li>If a weak May happens, the heavily weighted yet strongly performed constituents like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> are to suffer. </li>
</ul>


Statistics supported "Sell in May, go away" for the HSI. Since 2013, the average return for May is -2%, and is negative in 8 out of the last 12 years.
On average, May is the worst month since 2020, too. This even eclipsed the month of Oct, which is widely believed to be normally the worst month.
If a weak May happens, the heavily weighted yet strongly performed constituents like BYD (1211 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), and Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) are to suffer. 


HK Strategy: Sell in May, Go Away? The History Says Yes!

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Since the last reshuffle (August 11), our Model Portfolio has appreciated 1.18%, against MXASJ's 0.92% advance. Since inception on May 15, 2025, our portfolio is up 44.9%, against MXASJ's 45.8%.</li>
<li>The main drivers of our portfolio were Korea (contributed 2.77% return) and Taiwan (0.34%). The returns were dragged down by China (-1.14%) and India (-0.66%).</li>
<li>We exclude Reliance Industries and include Hitachi Energy, reaffirming our preference for Indian industrials. Our overweight on HK/China, Korea, India and underweight on Taiwan (but preference for Taiwan technology) continues.</li>
</ul>


Since the last reshuffle (August 11), our Model Portfolio has appreciated 1.18%, against MXASJ's 0.92% advance. Since inception on May 15, 2025, our portfolio is up 44.9%, against MXASJ's 45.8%.
The main drivers of our portfolio were Korea (contributed 2.77% return) and Taiwan (0.34%). The returns were dragged down by China (-1.14%) and India (-0.66%).
We exclude Reliance Industries and include Hitachi Energy, reaffirming our preference for Indian industrials. Our overweight on HK/China, Korea, India and underweight on Taiwan (but preference for Taiwan technology) continues.


Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed Marginally; Focus More on Indian Industrials

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>Several Chinese banks have handed out loans to support selected tech firms’ merger-and-acquisition (M&amp;A) deals under a newly launched pilot program to improve access to credit for innovative businesses.</li><li>China Construction Bank, one of the country’s biggest state-owned lenders, has issued 190 million yuan ($26.3 million) in an M&amp;A loan to a publicly listed tech firm in Suzhou, Jiangsu province, people familiar with the deal told Caixin.</li><li>The loan, covering 80% of the acquisition cost with an eight-year term, is the first loan of this type disbursed by a large state bank after the easing M&amp;A loan policies by financial regulators to help tech enterprises.</li></ul>

Several Chinese banks have handed out loans to support selected tech firms’ merger-and-acquisition (M&amp;A) deals under a newly launched pilot program to improve access to credit for innovative businesses.China Construction Bank, one of the country’s biggest state-owned lenders, has issued 190 million yuan ($26.3 million) in an M&amp;A loan to a publicly listed tech firm in Suzhou, Jiangsu province, people familiar with the deal told Caixin.The loan, covering 80% of the acquisition cost with an eight-year term, is the first loan of this type disbursed by a large state bank after the easing M&amp;A loan policies by financial regulators to help tech enterprises.

Chinese Banks Relax Loan Terms to Fuel Tech Sector M&A Deals 

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Fiscal / Analysis: China tables fiscal salvo for flagging domestic demand</li><li>Loans /: Chinese banks relax loan terms to fuel tech sector M&amp;A deals</li><li>Tesla FSD: Tesla Inc. is offering its Chinese customers a one-month free trial of its Full-Self Driving (FSD) feature, which still requires drivers to keep their hands on the wheel...</li></ul>

Fiscal / Analysis: China tables fiscal salvo for flagging domestic demandLoans /: Chinese banks relax loan terms to fuel tech sector M&amp;A dealsTesla FSD: Tesla Inc. is offering its Chinese customers a one-month free trial of its Full-Self Driving (FSD) feature, which still requires drivers to keep their hands on the wheel...

CX Daily: China Tables Fiscal Salvo for Flagging Domestic Demand 

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund management, foreign exchange, and other services. China Construction Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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China Construction Bank (601939 CH)

HK Strategy: Sell in May, Go Away? The History Says Yes!

Statistics show "Sell in May, go away" holds true for HSI with negative returns in May since 2013, making it the worst one, even surpassing Oct....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed Marginally; Focus More on Indian Industrials

Since last reshuffle Portfolio is up 1.18% vs MXASJ's 0.92%. Since inception it's up 44.9% vs MXASJ's 45.8%. Excluded Reliance Ind, included...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Chinese Banks Relax Loan Terms to Fuel Tech Sector M&A Deals

Several Chinese banks have handed out loans to support selected tech firms’ merger-and-acquisition (M&A) deals under a newly launched pilot...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: China Tables Fiscal Salvo for Flagging Domestic Demand

Fiscal / Analysis: China tables fiscal salvo for flagging domestic demand China surprised few by announcing a GDP growth target of “around 5%” for...

Caixin Global

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52-week Range

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HK Strategy: Sell in May, Go Away? The History Says Yes!

​Statistics show "Sell in May, go away" holds true for HSI with negative returns in May since 2013, making it the worst one, even surpassing Oct....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed Marginally; Focus More on Indian Industrials

Since last reshuffle Portfolio is up 1.18% vs MXASJ's 0.92%. Since inception it's up 44.9% vs MXASJ's 45.8%. Excluded Reliance Ind, included...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Chinese Banks Relax Loan Terms to Fuel Tech Sector M&A Deals

Several Chinese banks have handed out loans to support selected tech firms’ merger-and-acquisition (M&A) deals under a newly launched pilot...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: China Tables Fiscal Salvo for Flagging Domestic Demand

Fiscal / Analysis: China tables fiscal salvo for flagging domestic demand China surprised few by announcing a GDP growth target of “around 5%” for...

Caixin Global

Statistics show "Sell in May, go away" holds true for HSI with negative returns in May since 2013, making it the worst one, even surpassing Oct....