Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Unseasoned loans are especially high for 2 banks and very low for 2 others, divergent risks</li>
<li>Worsening China economy, geopolitical concerns, beware of well-held China banks</li>
<li>Rising losses at China's corporate suggests worse asset quality than reported</li>
</ul>


Unseasoned loans are especially high for 2 banks and very low for 2 others, divergent risks
Worsening China economy, geopolitical concerns, beware of well-held China banks
Rising losses at China's corporate suggests worse asset quality than reported


China Banks - Unseasoned Loans, Institutional Ownership, Corporate Losses

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Allocations in China &amp; HK Banks are at depressed levels. The percentage of funds with exposure has fallen from a high of 78% in 2011 to just 58.2% today.</li>
<li>More funds have exposure to Mexico, Brazil and Indonesian Banks.  Versus benchmark, China Banks are the 2nd largest Bank country underweight.</li>
<li>For the major stocks in the sector, we see a picture of low positioning and declining sentiment.  </li>
</ul>


Allocations in China &amp; HK Banks are at depressed levels. The percentage of funds with exposure has fallen from a high of 78% in 2011 to just 58.2% today.
More funds have exposure to Mexico, Brazil and Indonesian Banks.  Versus benchmark, China Banks are the 2nd largest Bank country underweight.
For the major stocks in the sector, we see a picture of low positioning and declining sentiment.  


Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 31st.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in CCB, Tencent, Alibaba, China Mobile, Yofc, Smic, Zijin Gold Intl.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 31st.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in CCB, Tencent, Alibaba, China Mobile, Yofc, Smic, Zijin Gold Intl.


HK Short Interest Weekly: CCB, Tencent, Alibaba, China Mobile, Yofc, Smic, Zijin Gold Intl

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 7th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, Knowledge Atlas, CCB, Hua Hong Semi, ICBC, China Mobile, PICC P&amp;C.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 7th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, Knowledge Atlas, CCB, Hua Hong Semi, ICBC, China Mobile, PICC P&amp;C.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Aug 7th): Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, Knowledge Atlas, CCB, ICBC

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

<ul>
<li>We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.</li>
<li>The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.</li>
<li>We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. </li>
</ul>


We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.
The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.
We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. 


Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

China

China Construction Bank is a leading commercial bank offering comprehensive financial services including personal and corporate banking, wealth management, and treasury operations. Its products and services encompass infrastructure loans, residential mortgages, bank cards, fund management, and financial leasing. The bank is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was founded in 1954.

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China Construction Bank (939 HK)

China Banks - Unseasoned Loans, Institutional Ownership, Corporate Losses

China concerns rising, we look at banks' unseasoned loans, institutional ownership, and losses of loss making companies in China - soaring.

Daniel Tabbush

China & HK Banks: Optimism Fading

EM Funds show declining appetite for China & HK Banks exposure as positioning slumps to all-time lows. Mexico, India and Indonesia remain favoured...

Steven Holden

HK Short Interest Weekly: CCB, Tencent, Alibaba, China Mobile, Yofc, Smic, Zijin Gold Intl

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 31st and highlight short interest changes in CCB, Tencent, Alibaba,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Aug 7th): Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, Knowledge Atlas, CCB, ICBC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, Knowledge Atlas, CCB,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

New asset classification rules have officially been announced. We see this as a long-term positive for the sector as regulators continue to bring...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

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