Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for the month ended Jun 30th.</li>
<li>We estimate that the net southbound flows in June were $4.6bn Inflows.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, stake changes, and holdings, and highlight flows for Alibaba, Kingboard Laminates, Kingboard, Smic, Knowledge Atlas.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for the month ended Jun 30th.
We estimate that the net southbound flows in June were $4.6bn Inflows.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, stake changes, and holdings, and highlight flows for Alibaba, Kingboard Laminates, Kingboard, Smic, Knowledge Atlas.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (June): AI Driven $4.6bn Inflows

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*D-SIB Standards Released: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) on December 3, 2020 released finalized standards for the country’s domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), and indicated that tighter regulations will be announced shortly; and* Aggressive Capital Raises Expected: In our view, the forthcoming regulations are likely to focus on: additional paid-in capital; leverage ratios; risk concentrations; corporate governance; disclosure levels; and mechanism to prevent systemic risk; and internal controls. The idea is to finally strengthen mainland Chinese bank balance sheets and improve their loss absorption capacity. Problem for equity raises is that P/BV must be over 1.0x for the raise and many of the potential D-SIBs are trading below book value.

*D-SIB Standards Released: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) on December 3, 2020 released finalized standards for the country’s domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), and indicated that tighter regulations will be announced shortly; and* Aggressive Capital Raises Expected: In our view, the forthcoming regulations are likely to focus on: additional paid-in capital; leverage ratios; risk concentrations; corporate governance; disclosure levels; and mechanism to prevent systemic risk; and internal controls. The idea is to finally strengthen mainland Chinese bank balance sheets and improve their loss absorption capacity. Problem for equity raises is that P/BV must be over 1.0x for the raise and many of the potential D-SIBs are trading below book value. 

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSCEI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on HAIER SMARTHOME, BOC, AKESO, Kuaishou, XPENG, ZIJIN MINING, MEITUAN, Pop Mart Intl.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSCEI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on HAIER SMARTHOME, BOC, AKESO, Kuaishou, XPENG, ZIJIN MINING, MEITUAN, Pop Mart Intl.


HSCEI Index Earning Revision (Jun): HAIER SMARTHOME, BOC, AKESO, Kuaishou, XPENG, ZIJIN MINING

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on TENCENT, AIA, PETROCHINA, LONGFOR, TRIP.COM, MEITUAN.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on TENCENT, AIA, PETROCHINA, LONGFOR, TRIP.COM, MEITUAN.


HSI Index Earning Revision (Jun): TENCENT, AIA, PETROCHINA, LONGFOR, TRIP.COM, MEITUAN

*Yongcheng Coal Default: According to Shanghai Clearing House, Yongcheng Coal and Electricity (YCE) in Henan Province failed to repay a CNY 1 bn (USD 151 mn) short-term bond despite being given the highest rating by one of mainland China’s awful domestic credit ratings agencies; and*Watch Your Banks: The yield on benchmark five-year “AAA” rated mainland Chinese corporates was 3.99% - up over 100 bp from their April 2020 low. Investor flight is pushing financing costs higher and squeezing local corporate funding in a market which is just barely recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns remain over higher problem loans as debt service risk is heightened over higher rates, unreliable financial statements and ratings agency reports, and now an inability to refinance public debt with a number of bond sales being canceled. Further, the degradation of corporate bond values is limiting their usage as collateral.

*Yongcheng Coal Default: According to Shanghai Clearing House, Yongcheng Coal and Electricity (YCE) in Henan Province failed to repay a CNY 1 bn (USD 151 mn) short-term bond despite being given the highest rating by one of mainland China’s awful domestic credit ratings agencies; and*Watch Your Banks: The yield on benchmark five-year “AAA” rated mainland Chinese corporates was 3.99% - up over 100 bp from their April 2020 low. Investor flight is pushing financing costs higher and squeezing local corporate funding in a market which is just barely recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns remain over higher problem loans as debt service risk is heightened over higher rates, unreliable financial statements and ratings agency reports, and now an inability to refinance public debt with a number of bond sales being canceled. Further, the degradation of corporate bond values is limiting their usage as collateral.

China

China Construction Bank is a leading commercial bank offering comprehensive financial services including personal and corporate banking, wealth management, and treasury operations. Its products and services encompass infrastructure loans, residential mortgages, bank cards, fund management, and financial leasing. The bank is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was founded in 1954.

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China Construction Bank (939 HK)

Hong Kong Connect Flows (June): AI Driven $4.6bn Inflows

We estimate inflows to be $4.6bn from mainland investors to HK stocks in June. We highlight flows for Alibaba, Kingboard Laminates, Kingboard,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Banks – About Time

CHINA BANKS: PBOC and CBIRC Released Finalized D-SIB Standards and Indicated Tighter Regulations. Aggressive Capital Raises Are Expected.

Thomas J. Monaco

HSCEI Index Earning Revision (Jun): HAIER SMARTHOME, BOC, AKESO, Kuaishou, XPENG, ZIJIN MINING

We analyzed HSCEI's consensus for Jun 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in HAIER SMARTHOME, BOC, AKESO, Kuaishou, XPENG, ZIJIN MINING, MEITUAN,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI Index Earning Revision (Jun): TENCENT, AIA, PETROCHINA, LONGFOR, TRIP.COM, MEITUAN

We analyzed HSI's consensus for Jun 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in TENCENT, AIA, PETROCHINA, LONGFOR, TRIP.COM, MEITUAN.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Another Day, Another Default

MAINLAND CHINA DEFAULT: Yongcheng Coal Defaulted On Its Debt, Leading To Concerns About The Credibility Of AAA Rated Corporates In Mainland China...

Thomas J. Monaco

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