Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is increased collateral risk for banks in Hong Kong and China considering ongoing stresses in real estate in both regions</li>
<li>China Vanke just issued a Profit Alert indicating a loss during FY24 compared with a profit in preceding year</li>
<li>Land mark downs are to blame and worsening profit margins and additional provisions for impairments</li>
</ul>


There is increased collateral risk for banks in Hong Kong and China considering ongoing stresses in real estate in both regions
China Vanke just issued a Profit Alert indicating a loss during FY24 compared with a profit in preceding year
Land mark downs are to blame and worsening profit margins and additional provisions for impairments


HK Banks - China Vanke FY24 EPS Profit Alert: Loss RMB3.79 Vs Profit RMB1.03, Bank Collateral Risk

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and outflows from Meituan.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and outflows from Meituan.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (January): $18.1bn Inflows

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Information technology very strong with AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l and Byd Elec all posting &gt; 10% weekly gains.</li>
<li>Gains were positive with helpful seasonals but not as widespread as last week with fewer singles stocks and Sectors participating in the rally.</li>
<li>China Vanke has big increase in option trading, in particular Calls, with implied vols also rising. </li>
</ul>


Information technology very strong with AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l and Byd Elec all posting &gt; 10% weekly gains.
Gains were positive with helpful seasonals but not as widespread as last week with fewer singles stocks and Sectors participating in the rally.
China Vanke has big increase in option trading, in particular Calls, with implied vols also rising. 


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation

<ul>
<li>Tough week with 82% of optionable stocks we survey declining on the week but no sign of panic as investors still prefer Calls over Puts. </li>
<li>Tencent was far and away the volume leader, accounting for 37% of all option trading.</li>
<li>Materials was the only Sector to see price gains and implied vol rose across all Sectors we survey.</li>
</ul>


Tough week with 82% of optionable stocks we survey declining on the week but no sign of panic as investors still prefer Calls over Puts. 
Tencent was far and away the volume leader, accounting for 37% of all option trading.
Materials was the only Sector to see price gains and implied vol rose across all Sectors we survey.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly January 06 – 10

<ul>
<li>Big increase in single stock volumes particularly Puts which pushed the single stock put call ratio over 1 for the first time since early November.</li>
<li>Heavy Put trading in the Financial Sector especially with ICBC and CCB.</li>
<li>Health Care, Energy and Materials are the 3 sectors seeing higher Put trading vs Calls and are also the 3 sectors with the lowest 3M implied vol 1 year percentile.</li>
</ul>


Big increase in single stock volumes particularly Puts which pushed the single stock put call ratio over 1 for the first time since early November.
Heavy Put trading in the Financial Sector especially with ICBC and CCB.
Health Care, Energy and Materials are the 3 sectors seeing higher Put trading vs Calls and are also the 3 sectors with the lowest 3M implied vol 1 year percentile.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Dec 30 – Jan 03

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides a comprehensive range of commercial banking products and services to individuals and corporate customers. The Bank's business consists of three principal business segments: corporate banking, personal banking, and treasury operations. China Construction Bank also services infrastructure loans, residential mortgage, and bank cards.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Construction Bank H (939 HK)

HK Banks - China Vanke FY24 EPS Profit Alert: Loss RMB3.79 Vs Profit RMB1.03, Bank Collateral Risk

The new profit alert from China Vanke highlights ongoing risks to banks, as land is their primary collateral. Real estate stresses are also evident...

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong Connect Flows (January): $18.1bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for January and highlighted flows for Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and Meituan.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation

Strong gains in information technology stocks AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l, and Byd Elec, but rally not as widespread as last week.

John Ley

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly January 06 – 10

Investors remain calm despite majority of optionable stocks declining, with preference for Calls over Puts; Tencent dominates option trading...

John Ley

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Dec 30 – Jan 03

Single stock put volumes are on the rise, pushing the put call ratio over 1 for the first time since November. Heavy put trading in financial...

John Ley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Banks - China Vanke FY24 EPS Profit Alert: Loss RMB3.79 Vs Profit RMB1.03, Bank Collateral Risk

The new profit alert from China Vanke highlights ongoing risks to banks, as land is their primary collateral. Real estate stresses are also evident...

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong Connect Flows (January): $18.1bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for January and highlighted flows for Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and Meituan.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation

​Strong gains in information technology stocks AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l, and Byd Elec, but rally not as widespread as last week.

John Ley

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly January 06 – 10

​Investors remain calm despite majority of optionable stocks declining, with preference for Calls over Puts; Tencent dominates option trading...

John Ley

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Dec 30 – Jan 03

​Single stock put volumes are on the rise, pushing the put call ratio over 1 for the first time since November. Heavy put trading in financial...

John Ley

Strong gains in information technology stocks AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l, and Byd Elec, but rally not as widespread as last week.

Investors remain calm despite majority of optionable stocks declining, with preference for Calls over Puts; Tencent dominates option trading...

Single stock put volumes are on the rise, pushing the put call ratio over 1 for the first time since November. Heavy put trading in financial...