Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back above US$13bn a day this past 4-day week. Net buying back below US$500mm/day.</li>
<li>Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is INFO TECH again. 8 weeks in a row negative.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back above US$13bn a day this past 4-day week. Net buying back below US$500mm/day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is INFO TECH again. 8 weeks in a row negative.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$700mm a day.</li>
<li>Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. Neither INFO TECH nor Tencent were the big sells this week. </li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week's Monitor.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$700mm a day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. Neither INFO TECH nor Tencent were the big sells this week. 
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week's Monitor.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US)</a> at the close of trading on 19 December.</li>
<li>Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> add at the close tomorrow.</li>
<li>The HA premiums for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44224:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK)</a> dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) at the close of trading on 19 December.
Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an HSCEI INDEX add at the close tomorrow.
The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.


FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

China Construction Bank H / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24567:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank (601939 CH)</a> is scheduled to report its annual 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, 17:00-18:15, Beijing time. 
</li>
<li>
Expected Price Movement: Option implied movement and historically recorded movement both indicate muted price action after earnings.</li>
<li>
Dividend Outlook: CCB has switched to semi-annual dividends, with current yields at 6.4% for H shares and 4.7% for A shares. The bank has a history of dividend increases.</li>
</ul>



China Construction Bank H (939 HK) / China Construction Bank (601939 CH) is scheduled to report its annual 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, 17:00-18:15, Beijing time. 


Expected Price Movement: Option implied movement and historically recorded movement both indicate muted price action after earnings.

Dividend Outlook: CCB has switched to semi-annual dividends, with current yields at 6.4% for H shares and 4.7% for A shares. The bank has a history of dividend increases.


China Construction Bank (939 HK/601939 CH) Earnings on 28 Mar: Anticipated Price Move and Strategy

Equity Bottom-Up

China Construction Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong earnings season enters its final week with at least 17 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> companies reporting their 2024 results and announcing dividends.</li>
<li>The proportion of companies reporting in the coming week and the week after is significant at an index level, with notable weightings in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HS TECH </a>indices.</li>
<li>Opportunities to profit from price movement around earnings are manifold and include event-focused trading, statistical arbitrage, hedging, and capitalizing on changes in dividends and implied volatility.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong earnings season enters its final week with at least 17 Hang Seng Index companies reporting their 2024 results and announcing dividends.
The proportion of companies reporting in the coming week and the week after is significant at an index level, with notable weightings in the HSI, HSCEI, and HS TECH indices.
Opportunities to profit from price movement around earnings are manifold and include event-focused trading, statistical arbitrage, hedging, and capitalizing on changes in dividends and implied volatility.


Hong Kong Earnings in the Week Commencing March 24

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides a comprehensive range of commercial banking products and services to individuals and corporate customers. The Bank's business consists of three principal business segments: corporate banking, personal banking, and treasury operations. China Construction Bank also services infrastructure loans, residential mortgage, and bank cards.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Construction Bank H (939 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big

SOUTHBOUND bought another HK$14bn+ last week in the four-day week. ENERGY was big again, as was CONSUMER DISC though some of the latter was index...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND volumes rose 20+% week-on-week to be the strongest week in a while. Net buying was strong too at HK$28bn. Broad-based volumes...

Travis Lundy

FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

There are 3 changes for the FXI in Dec. 2 adds will also be added to a global index at the same time while the other is an HSCEI add at the close...

Brian Freitas

China Construction Bank (939 HK/601939 CH) Earnings on 28 Mar: Anticipated Price Move and Strategy

China Construction Bank to report 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, with muted price movement expected post-earnings and a history of...

Gaudenz Schneider

Hong Kong Earnings in the Week Commencing March 24

The Hong Kong earnings season wraps up with 17 Hang Seng Index companies reporting 2024 results and dividends, offering various profit...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big

SOUTHBOUND bought another HK$14bn+ last week in the four-day week. ENERGY was big again, as was CONSUMER DISC though some of the latter was index...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND volumes rose 20+% week-on-week to be the strongest week in a while. Net buying was strong too at HK$28bn. Broad-based volumes...

Travis Lundy

FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

There are 3 changes for the FXI in Dec. 2 adds will also be added to a global index at the same time while the other is an HSCEI add at the close...

Brian Freitas

China Construction Bank (939 HK/601939 CH) Earnings on 28 Mar: Anticipated Price Move and Strategy

​China Construction Bank to report 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, with muted price movement expected post-earnings and a history of...

Gaudenz Schneider

Hong Kong Earnings in the Week Commencing March 24

​The Hong Kong earnings season wraps up with 17 Hang Seng Index companies reporting 2024 results and dividends, offering various profit...

Gaudenz Schneider

China Construction Bank to report 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, with muted price movement expected post-earnings and a history of...

The Hong Kong earnings season wraps up with 17 Hang Seng Index companies reporting 2024 results and dividends, offering various profit...