Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In terms of fleet characteristics, market exposure, and recent financial performance, we believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-s-lines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39795:1" rel="noopener">T.S. Lines (TSL HK)</a> and Taiwan's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a> are directly comparable</li>
<li>WHL has more exposure to the Transpacific, but still boasts a much larger Intra-Asia operation owing to its scale advantage (fleet and revenue about four times the size of TSL)</li>
<li>Given the similarities we outline in this insight, we believe TSL's shares should trade at EV/Fleet and EV/Revenue multiples in line with WHL's; no premium is justified, in our view</li>
</ul>


In terms of fleet characteristics, market exposure, and recent financial performance, we believe T.S. Lines (TSL HK) and Taiwan's Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT) are directly comparable
WHL has more exposure to the Transpacific, but still boasts a much larger Intra-Asia operation owing to its scale advantage (fleet and revenue about four times the size of TSL)
Given the similarities we outline in this insight, we believe TSL's shares should trade at EV/Fleet and EV/Revenue multiples in line with WHL's; no premium is justified, in our view


TS Lines Pre-IPO | Like Wan Hai Lines, but Smaller | Intra-Asia Update | Approaches to Valuation

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Orient Overseas International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe the 11.4% decline in share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> YTD is not sufficient to reflect the plunge in freight rate and weakened load performance.</li>
<li>Its 4Q22 average revenue/TEU of US$1,822.3 has returned to 2Q21 level; but with latest spot rate already plunged to early-2020 times, there is further downside for OOIL's realised rate.</li>
<li>Export outlook is uninspiring as well, indicating pressure on demand. With similar ROE, OOIL only trades at 0.3x P/B in FY20, that makes its current P/B of 0.9x expensive.</li>
</ul>


We believe the 11.4% decline in share price of Orient Overseas International (316 HK) YTD is not sufficient to reflect the plunge in freight rate and weakened load performance.
Its 4Q22 average revenue/TEU of US$1,822.3 has returned to 2Q21 level; but with latest spot rate already plunged to early-2020 times, there is further downside for OOIL's realised rate.
Export outlook is uninspiring as well, indicating pressure on demand. With similar ROE, OOIL only trades at 0.3x P/B in FY20, that makes its current P/B of 0.9x expensive.


Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Still Not Too Late to Be Bearish

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is no immediate impact of termination of 2M Alliance between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ap-moller-maersk-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24755:1" rel="noopener">Ap Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC)</a> and Mediterranean Shipping Company in 2025, but there are some long-term implications.</li>
<li>The change in competitive landscape will add uncertain operating variables to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cosco-holdings-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:286:1" rel="noopener">COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> as there is possibility of stiffer industry competition. </li>
<li>Port companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-ports-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:360:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-port-holdings-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15155:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Port (144 HK)</a> may see improvement in their relative bargaining power, with potentially lower bulk volume discounts offered. </li>
</ul>


There is no immediate impact of termination of 2M Alliance between Ap Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC) and Mediterranean Shipping Company in 2025, but there are some long-term implications.
The change in competitive landscape will add uncertain operating variables to COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK) and Orient Overseas International (316 HK) as there is possibility of stiffer industry competition. 
Port companies like Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK) and China Merchants Port (144 HK) may see improvement in their relative bargaining power, with potentially lower bulk volume discounts offered. 


China Shipping Sector: Impacts of the Termination of 2M Alliance

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> posted another set of strong result in 3Q21 with recurring earnings grew by 34.2% YoY. The slow growth of 5.8% in reported earnings is distorted by an Rmb143m provision in litigation loss, and investors should not let this non-recurring figure mask the interpretation of good result. We saw healthy double-digit volume growth for logistics and e-commerce businesses in the quarter, and international express JV DHL-Sinotrans continued to stage a solid growth in profit contribution.We believe Sinotrans is deeply undervalued at 0.47x 12-month forward P/B given an 11.7% ROE and a 41% earnings growth for FY21F. The 21% pullback in share price along with the container shipping sector in a month's time looks unjustified, in our view. Sinotrans has a solid financial position with 3Q21 gearing of just 6.6%, and assume a stable dividend payout, it is sitting on an attractive dividend yield of 7.4% for this year.

Sinotrans (598 HK) posted another set of strong result in 3Q21 with recurring earnings grew by 34.2% YoY. The slow growth of 5.8% in reported earnings is distorted by an Rmb143m provision in litigation loss, and investors should not let this non-recurring figure mask the interpretation of good result. We saw healthy double-digit volume growth for logistics and e-commerce businesses in the quarter, and international express JV DHL-Sinotrans continued to stage a solid growth in profit contribution.We believe Sinotrans is deeply undervalued at 0.47x 12-month forward P/B given an 11.7% ROE and a 41% earnings growth for FY21F. The 21% pullback in share price along with the container shipping sector in a month's time looks unjustified, in our view. Sinotrans has a solid financial position with 3Q21 gearing of just 6.6%, and assume a stable dividend payout, it is sitting on an attractive dividend yield of 7.4% for this year.  

Sinotrans (598 HK): From Strength to Strength

Pacific Basin Shipping / Equity Bottom-Up

The 3Q21 trading update for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-basin-shipping-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:929:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK)</a> painted a positive picture for the earnings performance for 2H21 and FY22. There is good QoQ improvement in time-charter equivalents for its Handysize and Supramax fleet in 3Q21, which are 69.3% and 98.6%, respectively, higher than 1H21. On such basis, we estimate that its 3Q21 profit may be some 33% more than 1H21, blowing away market consensus by sizeable margin.Additionally, the growth in minor bulk trade, particularly construction materials, cement and clinker and grains, has underpinned good Handysize and Supramax demand. The supply pressure is also light as net fleet growth is expected to be 3% and 1.8% for FY21 and FY22, respectively. We also think Pacific Basin may take opportunistic disposals of vessel to capture the favourable capital value movements. All in all, we think that having retreated 25% from the peak, the stock has returned to more attractive valuation multiples.

The 3Q21 trading update for Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK) painted a positive picture for the earnings performance for 2H21 and FY22. There is good QoQ improvement in time-charter equivalents for its Handysize and Supramax fleet in 3Q21, which are 69.3% and 98.6%, respectively, higher than 1H21. On such basis, we estimate that its 3Q21 profit may be some 33% more than 1H21, blowing away market consensus by sizeable margin.Additionally, the growth in minor bulk trade, particularly construction materials, cement and clinker and grains, has underpinned good Handysize and Supramax demand. The supply pressure is also light as net fleet growth is expected to be 3% and 1.8% for FY21 and FY22, respectively. We also think Pacific Basin may take opportunistic disposals of vessel to capture the favourable capital value movements. All in all, we think that having retreated 25% from the peak, the stock has returned to more attractive valuation multiples.

Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK): Stellar 2H21 in the Making

China

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd offers marine freight transportation services.  The Company offers container shipping, dry bulk shipping, logistics services, freight forwarding, and terminal and container leasing services internationally.  COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd operates container ships and terminals, and manufactures shipping containers.

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COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK)

TS Lines Pre-IPO | Like Wan Hai Lines, but Smaller | Intra-Asia Update | Approaches to Valuation

The obvious, direct comparable for TS Lines is Wan Hai Lines of Taiwan. In this insight we compare the two, review market conditions, and suggest...

Tracking Traffic

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Still Not Too Late to Be Bearish

OOIL's 4Q22 average revenue/TEU has returned to 2Q21 level. As latest spot rate plunged to early-2020 level, there is further downside to realised...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Shipping Sector: Impacts of the Termination of 2M Alliance

Termination of 2M Alliance may mean stiffer competition to be faced by Cosco Holdings and OOIL. Meanwhile, port companies like Cosco Shipping Port...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Sinotrans (598 HK): From Strength to Strength

Sinotrans' slower 3Q21 profit growth is due to non-recurring item; and excluding this, its growth was an impressive 34.2%. The 0.47x P/B has deeply...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK): Stellar 2H21 in the Making

Great 3Q21 trading update suggests 2H21 and FY22 outlook remain encouraging. Demand-supply dynamics remain favourable and there is room for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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