HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>While the 2H FY25 result of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK)</a> does not look exciting, there are meaningful operating and financial improvements deep inside. </li>
<li>The HSI change is a good proxy for its investment gains, and the 5.9% gain since end-FY25 (Mar) should positively reflect on CNDX's 1H FY26 results. </li>
<li>The sports goods business is not expected to be a drag in FY26. Trading at a steep 76.5% discount, the stock stays highly undervalued.</li>
</ul>


While the 2H FY25 result of China Dongxiang (3818 HK) does not look exciting, there are meaningful operating and financial improvements deep inside. 
The HSI change is a good proxy for its investment gains, and the 5.9% gain since end-FY25 (Mar) should positively reflect on CNDX's 1H FY26 results. 
The sports goods business is not expected to be a drag in FY26. Trading at a steep 76.5% discount, the stock stays highly undervalued.


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Better than It Appears

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK)</a> stands on a discount of 82.1% to NAV after factoring in the recent market rally, not limiting to its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> holdings.</li>
<li>Its listed equities may have gained Rmb314m, but the HK$41m market capitalisation growth has not reflected this. The gains on its unlisted investments have not been included yet.  </li>
<li>CNDX is now more likely to have a positive swing in the bottom line in FY25. Its tiny sportswear business has also witnessed a sequential moderation in sales decline. </li>
</ul>



China Dongxiang (3818 HK) stands on a discount of 82.1% to NAV after factoring in the recent market rally, not limiting to its Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) holdings.
Its listed equities may have gained Rmb314m, but the HK$41m market capitalisation growth has not reflected this. The gains on its unlisted investments have not been included yet.  
CNDX is now more likely to have a positive swing in the bottom line in FY25. Its tiny sportswear business has also witnessed a sequential moderation in sales decline. 


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Another Play on the Market Rally

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK)</a>'s share price change has not sufficiently reflected <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>'s movement. Their share price ratio is now at a historical low. </li>
<li>Its SOTP value increased by HK$927m with the surge in its PE, unlisted and fixed-income investment value, but its market capitalisation has gone up by just HK$258m.</li>
<li>Holdings in unlisted assets like Ant Financial and JD Technology (JD Digital) will benefit from the AI bonanza and the better sentiment in the HK IPO market.</li>
</ul>



China Dongxiang (3818 HK)'s share price change has not sufficiently reflected Alibaba Group (9988 HK)'s movement. Their share price ratio is now at a historical low. 
Its SOTP value increased by HK$927m with the surge in its PE, unlisted and fixed-income investment value, but its market capitalisation has gone up by just HK$258m.
Holdings in unlisted assets like Ant Financial and JD Technology (JD Digital) will benefit from the AI bonanza and the better sentiment in the HK IPO market.


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): More than Just BABA

<ul>
<li>The turnaround of sports business at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK)</a> is very welcoming. We are glad that sales trend in Oct-Nov is sustained and Phenix brand is well-received.</li>
<li>Reported losses widened as poor market environment enlarged investment losses. However, net cash and investment portfolio are still valued at Rmb8.5bn, or 5.9x its market capitalisation. </li>
<li>CNDX looks comfortably at over 6% full-year dividend yield. Together with just 0.15x P/B, there are enough protections for the downside of the stock.  </li>
</ul>


The turnaround of sports business at China Dongxiang (3818 HK) is very welcoming. We are glad that sales trend in Oct-Nov is sustained and Phenix brand is well-received.
Reported losses widened as poor market environment enlarged investment losses. However, net cash and investment portfolio are still valued at Rmb8.5bn, or 5.9x its market capitalisation. 
CNDX looks comfortably at over 6% full-year dividend yield. Together with just 0.15x P/B, there are enough protections for the downside of the stock.  


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Turned Around on Sports Business

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK)</a> posted good FY22/23 result, supporting by sharp recovery in its investment portfolio contribution. Its apparel business also witnessed narrowing losses.</li>
<li>It trades on 0.2x P/B, with most of book value being cash and investment portfolio. It is true that it deserves a discount but this is just too deep.</li>
<li>Fading pandemic impact should be positive to CNDX's apparel business - it has already witnessed a 5.6pp increase in offline sales. More brand promotion should be a positive driver.</li>
</ul>



China Dongxiang (3818 HK) posted good FY22/23 result, supporting by sharp recovery in its investment portfolio contribution. Its apparel business also witnessed narrowing losses.
It trades on 0.2x P/B, with most of book value being cash and investment portfolio. It is true that it deserves a discount but this is just too deep.
Fading pandemic impact should be positive to CNDX's apparel business - it has already witnessed a 5.6pp increase in offline sales. More brand promotion should be a positive driver.


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Demonstrating the Capability to Come Back

China

China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd retails sportswear apparel products.

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China Dongxiang (3818 HK)