HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a> appears to be facing the headwinds from higher USD interest rate and reduction in capitalised interest. The intangible write-off is another drag on FY23.</li>
<li>Newly registered students increased 17.8% for FY24. With better average fees, this will help the topline. Our concerns are high finance and operating costs will erode revenue growth.</li>
<li>Consensus is overly aggressive and there are risks of downgrade. Earnings may re-accelerate in the future, but weaker 1H FY24F keeps us on the sideline in the short term. </li>
</ul>



China Education Group (839 HK) appears to be facing the headwinds from higher USD interest rate and reduction in capitalised interest. The intangible write-off is another drag on FY23.
Newly registered students increased 17.8% for FY24. With better average fees, this will help the topline. Our concerns are high finance and operating costs will erode revenue growth.
Consensus is overly aggressive and there are risks of downgrade. Earnings may re-accelerate in the future, but weaker 1H FY24F keeps us on the sideline in the short term. 


China Education Group (839 HK): Not so Encouraging in the near Term

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 15th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for ICBC, Innovent Biologics, CCB, Sunac China.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 15th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for ICBC, Innovent Biologics, CCB, Sunac China.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 15th): ICBC, Innovent Biologics, CCB, Sunac China

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 14th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate the outflows to be USD 538m and highlight flows for Meituan, BYD.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 14th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate the outflows to be USD 538m and highlight flows for Meituan, BYD.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 14th): Meituan, BYD

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 19th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 19th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 19th): Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto

<ul>
<li>Adjusted net profit at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a> grew 15.1% in 1H23, accelerated from 5% in 2H22. We are delighted to see resumption of interim DPS at Rmb0.164.</li>
<li>FY23 outlook will be underpinned by higher education student enrollment and tuition increase. Strengthened financial position offers opportunities for both organic and M&amp;A growth.</li>
<li>Potential upside will also come from completion of for-profit conversion at Jiangxi University of Technology. We consider its 7.9x PER, 1x P/B, 13.3% ROE and 5.5% yield attractive.</li>
</ul>


Adjusted net profit at China Education Group (839 HK) grew 15.1% in 1H23, accelerated from 5% in 2H22. We are delighted to see resumption of interim DPS at Rmb0.164.
FY23 outlook will be underpinned by higher education student enrollment and tuition increase. Strengthened financial position offers opportunities for both organic and M&amp;A growth.
Potential upside will also come from completion of for-profit conversion at Jiangxi University of Technology. We consider its 7.9x PER, 1x P/B, 13.3% ROE and 5.5% yield attractive.


China Education Group (839 HK): Sustaining the Healthy Track Record

China

China East Education is the largest vocational training education provider in China, offering courses in culinary arts, information and internet technology, auto services, and fashion and beauty. The company operates under various brands including New East, Omick, Xinhua Internet, Wisezone, Wontone, and On-mind. It was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Hefei, Anhui Province, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China East Education (667 HK)

China Education Group (839 HK): Not so Encouraging in the near Term

CEG is facing challenges from higher USD interest rates, reduced capitalised interest, and write-offs. Despite a 17.8% increase in new students,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 15th): ICBC, Innovent Biologics, CCB, Sunac China

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for ICBC, Innovent Biologics, CCB, Sunac China.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 14th): Meituan, BYD

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week. We estimate the outflows to be USD 38m and highlight flows for Meituan and BYD.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 19th): Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Education Group (839 HK): Sustaining the Healthy Track Record

Higher education student enrollment and tuition increase will support FY23 growth, while stronger financial position offers opportunities for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Education Group (839 HK): Not so Encouraging in the near Term

​CEG is facing challenges from higher USD interest rates, reduced capitalised interest, and write-offs. Despite a 17.8% increase in new students,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 15th): ICBC, Innovent Biologics, CCB, Sunac China

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for ICBC, Innovent Biologics, CCB, Sunac China.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 14th): Meituan, BYD

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week. We estimate the outflows to be USD 38m and highlight flows for Meituan and BYD.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 19th): Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Education Group (839 HK): Sustaining the Healthy Track Record

Higher education student enrollment and tuition increase will support FY23 growth, while stronger financial position offers opportunities for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CEG is facing challenges from higher USD interest rates, reduced capitalised interest, and write-offs. Despite a 17.8% increase in new students,...