Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend</li>
<li>Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors</li>
<li>Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts</li>
</ul>


March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend
Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors
Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On average, companies under our coverage are forecast to see a 47.3% YoY growth in net profit in 1Q25. Their results should be a pointer for the outlook in 2025. </li>
<li>Good results are expected at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cosco-holdings-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:286:1" rel="noopener">COSCO Shipping Hldgs (1919 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">CNBM (3323 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2875:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinhua-winshare-publishing-media-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15072:1" rel="noopener">Xinhua Winshare (811 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transp. (1138 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> will see weaker 1Q25.</li>
</ul>


On average, companies under our coverage are forecast to see a 47.3% YoY growth in net profit in 1Q25. Their results should be a pointer for the outlook in 2025. 
Good results are expected at Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK), Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK), COSCO Shipping Hldgs (1919 HK), Air China Ltd (753 HK), and CNBM (3323 HK). 

Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), Xinhua Winshare (811 HK), Cosco Shipping Energy Transp. (1138 HK), and China Longyuan Power (916 HK) will see weaker 1Q25.


China & HK Strategy: 1Q25 Preview - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

<ul>
<li>Combined January-February activity indicates demand growth continues to slow down</li>
<li>Similarly, capacity restoration &amp; load factors on outbound flights appear to have stagnated </li>
<li>We expect shares of Chinese airlines to continue to outperform travel platform Trip.com</li>
</ul>


Combined January-February activity indicates demand growth continues to slow down
Similarly, capacity restoration &amp; load factors on outbound flights appear to have stagnated 
We expect shares of Chinese airlines to continue to outperform travel platform Trip.com


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Growth of Travel Demand Slowed in January-February (March 2025)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 83.3% as of Mar 21st.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.4ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, consumer discretionary, communication services and offset by consumer staples, financials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Huadian Power, Livzon Pharma, Joinn Lab, Maanshan Iron&amp;Steel, Datang Intl Power.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 83.3% as of Mar 21st.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.4ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, consumer discretionary, communication services and offset by consumer staples, financials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Huadian Power, Livzon Pharma, Joinn Lab, Maanshan Iron&amp;Steel, Datang Intl Power.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 21st): 47 Stocks at 52 Week High A-H Premium

<ul>
<li>January air cargo activity moderated; timing of LNY holiday also made for tough comps</li>
<li>January Int'l air cargo tons at US gateways grew far less than inbound (ocean) TEUs</li>
<li>Data from Asian carriers &amp; US gateways indicates low utilization, softening growth</li>
</ul>


January air cargo activity moderated; timing of LNY holiday also made for tough comps
January Int'l air cargo tons at US gateways grew far less than inbound (ocean) TEUs
Data from Asian carriers &amp; US gateways indicates low utilization, softening growth


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | January: Soft Demand, Low LFs | Ocean Growth > Air Growth (March 2025)

China

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the civil aviation industry. It offers passenger, cargo, mail delivery, ground, cargo handling, and other extended transportation services.

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China Eastern Airlines (670 HK)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Data from China's leading airlines and some popular regional destinations show a clear slowing of travel demand growth in March and Q125. For now,...

Tracking Traffic

China & HK Strategy: 1Q25 Preview - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Earnings for the companies under our coverage are expected to grow by 47.3% in 1Q25, with Shanghai Electric Group, Anhui Conch, COSCO Shipping...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Growth of Travel Demand Slowed in January-February (March 2025)

The growth of Chinese travel demand appeared to slow in the first two months of 2025. We believe the Chinese airlines can continue to outperform...

Tracking Traffic

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 21st): 47 Stocks at 52 Week High A-H Premium

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Huadian Power, Livzon Pharma, Joinn Lab, Maanshan...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | January: Soft Demand, Low LFs | Ocean Growth > Air Growth (March 2025)

Air cargo demand in January 2025 softened, although some of this may be attributed to timing of the LNY holiday. Air cargo utilization is low (and...

Tracking Traffic

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