Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>January air cargo activity moderated; timing of LNY holiday also made for tough comps</li>
<li>January Int'l air cargo tons at US gateways grew far less than inbound (ocean) TEUs</li>
<li>Data from Asian carriers &amp; US gateways indicates low utilization, softening growth</li>
</ul>


January air cargo activity moderated; timing of LNY holiday also made for tough comps
January Int'l air cargo tons at US gateways grew far less than inbound (ocean) TEUs
Data from Asian carriers &amp; US gateways indicates low utilization, softening growth


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | January: Soft Demand, Low LFs | Ocean Growth > Air Growth (March 2025)

<ul>
<li>Net Revenue growth accelerated to +23% Y/Y in Q424, far stronger than in Q224 and Q324</li>
<li>But costs and expenses grew even faster, leading to surprisingly sharp margin contraction</li>
<li>We no longer view Trip.com as an attractive play on Chinese travel; airlines may outperform</li>
</ul>


Net Revenue growth accelerated to +23% Y/Y in Q424, far stronger than in Q224 and Q324
But costs and expenses grew even faster, leading to surprisingly sharp margin contraction
We no longer view Trip.com as an attractive play on Chinese travel; airlines may outperform


Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

<ul>
<li>Late January timing of LNY holiday boosted last month's travel and tourism statistics</li>
<li>Chinese airlines are filling outbound flights, which should lift pricing &amp; margins (eventually)</li>
<li>Numbers suggest Chinese consumers eager to travel, but spending remains muted</li>
</ul>


Late January timing of LNY holiday boosted last month's travel and tourism statistics
Chinese airlines are filling outbound flights, which should lift pricing &amp; margins (eventually)
Numbers suggest Chinese consumers eager to travel, but spending remains muted


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | LNY Numbers Just OK | Airlines Filling Up | (February 2025)

<ul>
<li>December numbers from Taiwanese carriers suggest balanced air freight market conditions</li>
<li>Cathay, SIA, &amp; three Chinese carriers reported solid volume growth, but low load factors</li>
<li>A range of leading air cargo hubs disclosed moderating volume growth in December</li>
</ul>


December numbers from Taiwanese carriers suggest balanced air freight market conditions
Cathay, SIA, &amp; three Chinese carriers reported solid volume growth, but low load factors
A range of leading air cargo hubs disclosed moderating volume growth in December


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | Inaugural Edition | Low Cargo Load Factors and Moderating Demand Growth

<ul>
<li>Two years after most Covid restrictions ended, pace of travel recovery has slowed, naturally</li>
<li>Gov't estimates ahead of LNY travel period seem tepid, actual growth could exceed them</li>
<li>Trip.com has been stellar performer in segment, but in recent months airlines outperformed</li>
</ul>


Two years after most Covid restrictions ended, pace of travel recovery has slowed, naturally
Gov't estimates ahead of LNY travel period seem tepid, actual growth could exceed them
Trip.com has been stellar performer in segment, but in recent months airlines outperformed


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Dec & Q424 Numbers | Airlines Outperform Trip.com (January 2025)

China

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited operates airline businesses. The Company provides passenger transport, air freight, air catering, and other related services. China Eastern Airlines conducts businesses worldwide.

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China Eastern Airlines Lt (600115 CH)

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | January: Soft Demand, Low LFs | Ocean Growth > Air Growth (March 2025)

Air cargo demand in January 2025 softened, although some of this may be attributed to timing of the LNY holiday. Air cargo utilization is low (and...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

Trip.com's Q424 results showed a re-acceleration of top-line growth, but also a surprising surge in Cost of Revenue and Operating Expenses, which...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | LNY Numbers Just OK | Airlines Filling Up | (February 2025)

January and Lunar New Year travel activity data seem OK, but not spectacular. Chinese tourists seem eager to travel, but there are few signs they...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | Inaugural Edition | Low Cargo Load Factors and Moderating Demand Growth

Air cargo demand growth appears to be moderating, and most carriers reported low (sub-70%) load factors in December. In short, we see few signs of...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Dec & Q424 Numbers | Airlines Outperform Trip.com (January 2025)

December 2024 travel growth moderated, as the post-pandemic recovery has by now largely run its course. After a stellar 2023-24 run, shares of...

Tracking Traffic

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