Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Chinese outbound air travel in the region surged in March, up 50%+ versus February</li>
<li>Domestic improvement more muted, but still up about 75% Y/Y in Q123</li>
<li>Is the expected recovery on track? Sure, but so far no upside surprises for investors</li>
</ul>


Chinese outbound air travel in the region surged in March, up 50%+ versus February
Domestic improvement more muted, but still up about 75% Y/Y in Q123
Is the expected recovery on track? Sure, but so far no upside surprises for investors


Chinese Outbound Tourism Recovery Accelerates, But Still a Fraction of Pre-Covid Level

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shangri-la-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19690:1" rel="noopener">Shangri-La Asia (69 HK)</a>'s good share price performance YTD, it has still not yet fully reflected the strengths of and benefits from China's re-opening. More upside to come.</li>
<li>Occupancy for Hong Kong and mainland China has surged 30-45pp YoY in Mar, and with China's RevPAR for FY22 is down 56.5% from peak, we see massive rebound in profitability.</li>
<li>Share of China's EBITDA was US$258m in FY22, from US$465m in FY16-19, suggests good room for recovery. It is cheap on ~70% discount to revalued NAV, vs. 37% in FY18.</li>
</ul>


Despite Shangri-La Asia (69 HK)'s good share price performance YTD, it has still not yet fully reflected the strengths of and benefits from China's re-opening. More upside to come.
Occupancy for Hong Kong and mainland China has surged 30-45pp YoY in Mar, and with China's RevPAR for FY22 is down 56.5% from peak, we see massive rebound in profitability.
Share of China's EBITDA was US$258m in FY22, from US$465m in FY16-19, suggests good room for recovery. It is cheap on ~70% discount to revalued NAV, vs. 37% in FY18.


Shangri-La Asia (69 HK): Not yet Fully Reflected China's Comeback

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China (H) (753 HK)</a> underperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern (1055 HK)</a> YTD as domestic traffic recovery is faster than international, but its momentum will accelerate in the rest of the year.</li>
<li>With Jan-Feb domestic traffic returned to 92.6% of 2019, CSA's upside is relative limited. Air China, instead, will benefit from more profound international rebound which only back by 10.3%. </li>
<li>Recent developments including resumption of visa issuance and outbound international group travels, removal of pre-flight negative PCR tests and recovery of visitors to HK all bode well for Air China.</li>
</ul>



Air China (H) (753 HK) underperformed China Southern (1055 HK) YTD as domestic traffic recovery is faster than international, but its momentum will accelerate in the rest of the year.
With Jan-Feb domestic traffic returned to 92.6% of 2019, CSA's upside is relative limited. Air China, instead, will benefit from more profound international rebound which only back by 10.3%. 
Recent developments including resumption of visa issuance and outbound international group travels, removal of pre-flight negative PCR tests and recovery of visitors to HK all bode well for Air China.


<ul>
<li>With re-opening of borders, China's tourism and hospitality industry should see encouraging earnings outlook over the next two years; and we are now only in the early stage of recovery.  </li>
<li>Online travel agencies and hotel and resorts operators including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huazhu-group-ltd-79e0c5b5-ad55-42ed-b8d2-a2173defd0ea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33487:1" rel="noopener">H World Group (1179 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> are well positioned.</li>
<li>These companies all have sound business model, industry leadership position, solid competitive strengths, comprehensive customer coverage and, for some, meaningful global presence in their respective sub-sectors. </li>
</ul>


With re-opening of borders, China's tourism and hospitality industry should see encouraging earnings outlook over the next two years; and we are now only in the early stage of recovery.  
Online travel agencies and hotel and resorts operators including Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK), H World Group (1179 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK) and Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) are well positioned.
These companies all have sound business model, industry leadership position, solid competitive strengths, comprehensive customer coverage and, for some, meaningful global presence in their respective sub-sectors. 


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: A Year of Revenge

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>China’s top state assets administration imposed minimum prices for tickets on seven state-owned airlines, slamming the door on ultra-low-cost promotions launched as travel plunged during the pandemic</li><li>The commission put a floor under prices to preserve and increase the value of state-owned assets and to pare operating losses, a senior industry insider said.</li><li>The move is a way for SASAC to exercise its rights as a majority shareholder of the state-owned airlines.</li></ul>

China’s top state assets administration imposed minimum prices for tickets on seven state-owned airlines, slamming the door on ultra-low-cost promotions launched as travel plunged during the pandemicThe commission put a floor under prices to preserve and increase the value of state-owned assets and to pare operating losses, a senior industry insider said.The move is a way for SASAC to exercise its rights as a majority shareholder of the state-owned airlines.

China Slams the Door on ‘1 Yuan Airfares’ Spawned by the Pandemic

China

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited operates airline businesses. The Company provides passenger transport, air freight, air catering, and other related services. China Eastern Airlines conducts businesses worldwide.

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China Eastern Airlines Lt (600115 CH)

Chinese Outbound Tourism Recovery Accelerates, But Still a Fraction of Pre-Covid Level

Chinese tourism activity accelerated last month (particularly outbound travel), but it remains at a fraction of pre-Covid levels -- we see no...

Tracking Traffic

Shangri-La Asia (69 HK): Not yet Fully Reflected China's Comeback

Shangri-la Asia is an excellent play on recovery of China, where 55% of rooms are located. Its overseas assets will gain from surge in outbound...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Air China (753 HK): Set to Accelerate

Resumptions of visa issuance and outbound international group travels, removal of pre-flight negative PCR tests and recovery of visitors to HK all...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: A Year of Revenge

We are only in early stage of China's tourism and hospitality recovery, after its re-opening of borders in Jan. We identify Tongcheng, H World,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Slams the Door on ‘1 Yuan Airfares’ Spawned by the Pandemic

China’s top state assets administration imposed minimum prices for tickets on seven state-owned airlines, slamming the door on ultra-low-cost...

Caixin Global

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