Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released today the key China data for October, related to property sales and investments by developers at a national level, showing the decelerating growth of new home sales volumes (residential gross floor area for "commercial residential" property). This was expected, though the weekly data for 12 major cities indicates more positive growth in November.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released today the key China data for October, related to property sales and investments by developers at a national level, showing the decelerating growth of new home sales volumes (residential gross floor area for "commercial residential" property). This was expected, though the weekly data for 12 major cities indicates more positive growth in November. 

China Housing: Sales Volume Growth Slows Down In October But Weekly November Data More Positive

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar. 

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 07 Nov 2018

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we discuss Corporate Governance in Chinese Companies. Specifically, we highlight: [1] the nascent development of the Chinese corporate governance regime; [2] the lack of strong external examination/review; [3] different types of Chinese public companies; and [4] Lucror’s approach to assessing corporate governance. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

   In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we discuss Corporate Governance in Chinese Companies. Specifically, we highlight: [1] the nascent development of the Chinese corporate governance regime; [2] the lack of strong external examination/review; [3] different types of Chinese public companies; and [4] Lucror’s approach to assessing corporate governance.    The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Corporate Governance In Chinese Companies - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 31 Oct 2018

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Equity Bottom-Up

The collapse in the stock market and fear of a potential property tax  have negatively impacted the sentiment of high-net-worth Chinese investors.  We highlight key risks in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13585" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13585:1">Noah Holdings Ltd Spon Ads (NOAH US)</a>, a leading specialist in the private banking industry in China.  We are reducing our price target to from $55-60 (October 19, 2017) to $30-35 per share, reflecting amplified macro risks, as well as reduced company specific earnings growth. While the former is mostly in ~47% decline in stock price from $68 peak this May, we fear that the latter yet need to be shown in the financials over the next few quarters.

The collapse in the stock market and fear of a potential property tax  have negatively impacted the sentiment of high-net-worth Chinese investors.  We highlight key risks in Noah Holdings Ltd Spon Ads (NOAH US), a leading specialist in the private banking industry in China.  We are reducing our price target to from $55-60 (October 19, 2017) to $30-35 per share, reflecting amplified macro risks, as well as reduced company specific earnings growth. While the former is mostly in ~47% decline in stock price from $68 peak this May, we fear that the latter yet need to be shown in the financials over the next few quarters.

China's Stock Market Liquidity Crisis Poses Key Risks to Private Banking Industry

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

China Housing: Sales Volume Growth Slows Down In October But Weekly November Data More Positive

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released today the key China data for October, related to property sales and investments by developers at a...

Robert Ciemniak

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 07 Nov 2018

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Corporate Governance In Chinese Companies - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we discuss Corporate Governance in Chinese Companies. Specifically, we highlight: [1] the nascent development...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 31 Oct 2018

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

China's Stock Market Liquidity Crisis Poses Key Risks to Private Banking Industry

The collapse in the stock market and fear of a potential property tax have negatively impacted the sentiment of high-net-worth Chinese investors. ...

JL Warren Capital

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